BIG EAST POWER RANKINGS: Opening Night Edition

My running bit on Twitter is my Reactionary Big East Power Rankings. I put them out at random intervals based on extreme recency bias. Many people still do not get the bit and attempt to argue with me. So without further ado, my Big East Power Rankings, Opening Night Edition. I am going to treat this edition of the Power Rankings as my pre-Big East season prediction. I’ll give you my final Big East standings and NCAAT, NIT or IN THE PORTAL EARLY ratings for each team. Subsequent editions (maybe monthly) will simply have the teams power-ranked and include a blurb for each. Here. We. Go.

THE CONTENDERS (for the conference)

1. Marquette - WAB 4, KPI 4, SOR 3 - Marquette is the clear cream of the crop, and will have no problem making the tournament. They’ve had an outstanding run in OOC play, knocking off Maryland, Purdue, Georgia, and Wisconsin, all home or neutral, with their own loss coming at T-Rank no. 7 Iowa State. One more test coming up at very game Dayton Flyers team on Saturday. Adding a Quad 1 road win (Dayton is currently no. 42 in T-Rank) would be the capstone on a fantastic OOC performance. While they’re most likely to finish atop the conference, and certainly want to land a high seed in March, Marquette could likely coast into the NCAAt with a 10-10 conference performance, maybe 11-9 at most. 

   Prediction: 27-4 (17-3) - NCAAT

2. St. John’s - WAB 49, KPI 33, SOR 50 - Probably a little bit of the homer in me, but I think St. John’s has been the 2nd best team in the conference thus far. They should have won the Baylor game had the referees initiated a proper replay review. They had an atrocious shooting night that cost them the Georgia game, but still only lost by 3 points, completely controlled New Mexico, UVa and Kansas State. UVa clearly sucks and Kansas State has not looked great, but I would still expect UNM and Kansas State to be near the bubble, at least, if not both in the tournament safely come March. Obviously, SJU has some work to do to improve those resume-based metrics, but they’ll have plenty of opportunities. WAB is likely to be particularly important this year. While it’s not the same as the NCAA’s WAB, Torvik’s WAB is likely to be similar, and frankly his site contains way more information than the NCAA site, particularly WAB values for each remaining game. These obviously change as teams get better or worse in Torvik’s efficiency ratings, but as of now the average win for SJU in conference play is worth .4375, meaning the average loss is -.5625, so, while I predict 16-4, the bare minimum SJU needs to make the NCAAT, based on my back of the envelope math is 13-7. Multiply 13 by .4375, multiply 7 by -.5625, subtract the L score from the W score, and it nets out to a 1.55 WAB. We are currently at .4 in WAB, and it should get to approximately .58 with wins over Bryant and Delaware, for a total WAB of 2.13. Last year no team over 1.0 was left out except Princeton. The highest the WAB bubble has been in recent years is 1.3. So we’d have 22 wins in a power conference, down though it may be, a top-30 WAB, probably similar in the other results-based metrics, and for seeding purposes we’d have elite metrics. I think we’re going to be fine. I’d say 85% chance we make the NCAAT.

   Prediction: 25-6 (16-4) - NCAAT

3. UConn - WAB 78, KPI 72, SOR 67 - UConn seems to have gotten their feet back under them after a disastrous Maui trip beginning with the shocking upset of Baylor. It’s not shocking in a vacuum, but to see this UConn team win against a top-tier opponent without Alex Karaban was very impressive. UConn backed it up by taking the show on the road, getting Karaban back, and whooping Texas on its home floor far worse than the 11-point margin would indicate. UConn has a chance on Saturday to add one more sterling line on its resume as they’ll meet Gonzaga in the World’s Most Famous Arena. UConn, even more so than St. John’s, needs to goose its resume-metrics if its to make the NCAAT. A win Saturday vs. Gonzaga would be a fantastic start, and would be worth +0.82 WAB, and would push their WAB back over 0 from -0.4 to +0.42, essentially putting UConn on the same resume-metrics footing as St. John’s heading into conference play. Of course UConn’s resume already has 2 things St. John’s resume does not: a Q1 road win and 2 wins over likely NCAAT teams. On the flip side, St. John’s has not taken a loss as bad as Colorado, and UConn has 2 losses roughly equivalent to SJU’s Georgia loss.

   Prediction: 20-11 (13-7) - NCAAT

4. Xavier - WAB 61, KPI 70, SOR 63 - I believe my thoughts on Xavier this season were well known. I thought they were overhyped all off-season. My concern broadly stated was that here were no sure things on the roster other than Ryan Conwell and Dayvion McKnight. Freemantle was coming off a long injury layoff. Jerome Hunter is a nice rotation piece at his best, but has never been an elite player. Guys like Marcus Foster and Dante Maddox might not translate to the next level. Once Lassina Traore—a guy who already had a question mark of translating up in my book—went down with injury it left a gaping hole in the front court. John Hugley IV was not that productive last season, no where near his best season 3 years ago at Pitt, and he is coming off an injury, and when he’s health come Big East play he is going to have his hands full guarding Big East big men, let alone being productive on the offensive end. So where is X now? Well I think roughly the same place. I was 100% right re: Foster and Maddox, neither of whom have scored anywhere close to the levels they did previously, Hugley is still recovering, so score that one incomplete. The only spot I was wrong was regarding Freemantle. He’s looked great coming off the injury layoff.

   Prediction: 22-9 (13-7) - NCAAT

5. Creighton - WAB 71, KPI 62, SOR 66 - Creighton came into the year firmly entrenched in the Big East’s elite troika. Now they’ve got a battle just to make the NCAAT. Like so many, Creighton opened the year playing cupcakes, and after a brief struggle with UTRGV before winning by 13, Creighton was doing what Creighton does. Then Nebrasketball came to Omaha and broke the Blue Jays, winning 74-63. An optimist would would have written this off as an anomaly. A mediocre team getting hyped up as can be for a rivalry game versus a better opponent, who already had their eyes set on Las Vegas and a stacked field for the Players Era Tournament. Don’t worry, they’ll recover in Vegas. WRONG! Creighton opened the Players Era with a blow out loss to SDSU, and following that up with a narrow loss versus Texas A&M. The Blue Jays rounded out the trip beating a better-than-expected Notre Dame team 80-76. Notre Dame proved to be the get right game the Blue Jays needed, knocking off no. 1 Kansas 76-63 at home in their next tilt, and backing it up with a home romp over UNLV. Unfortunately for Creighton, Pop Isaacs was lost for the season to injury during the Kansas game, leaving a gaping hole on the offensive end right when it seemed Creighton had figured it out. In the UNLV game fellow transfer Jamiya Neal contributing in a big way, posting 19 points, 9 rebounds, 9 assists and 4 blocks. Neal has looked fantastic for the Blue Jays in 2 of the last 3 games, but he struggled versus Kansas, SDSU and Texas A&M. Neal wasn’t the only one to step up. Sophomore Jasen Green contributed 12 points in 23 minutes and Isaac Traudt added 15 in 28 minutes. Ashworth added 17 and 8 assists. So where does all that leave us with Creighton? Well there’s 2 major question marks: 1) what does this starting lineup look like? Jackson McAndrew and Mason Miller both started versus UNLV but only got 11 & 12 minutes respectively. Green and Traudt came off the bench and played 23 & 28 respectively, to great success. Do they get the starts moving forward? 2) related, but depth could become an issue. Only 4 players on Creighton average 18 or more minutes per game, and one of them is Pop Isaacs. While it’s nice that Green and Traudt stepped up in a big way, is that sustainable? And even if it is, who is providing anything off the bench? Miller or McAndrew or King needs to find his footing as well. If Creighton answers these questions positively, it will easily be an NCAAT team. Saturday’s game against a much-better-than-UNLV Alabama team will be very telling. If things go sideways this season from a depth and offensive production standpoint, fans in Omaha could be in line for one of their worst seasons ever. I am choosing to trust McD’s coaching and the plantation culture to win out.

   Prediction: 19-12 (12-8) - NCAAT

   PRETENDERS

6. DePaul - WAB 98, KPI 145, SOR 91 - When DePaul is shooting well it can beat almost anyone. When it’s not…it gets smoked by Texas Tech and loses a squeaker at home in overtime to PC. I look for the ‘mons to be better than they’ve shown thus far, but probably still fall just short of the NCAAT.

   Prediction: 20-11 (10-10) - Bubble(FFO)/NIT Autobid

7. Butler - WAB 76, KPI 51, SOR 74 What a roller coaster it has been for the Bulldogs. They opened with a victory over Missouri State that was way too close for comfort, before dropping a buy game to Torvik no. 248, Austin Peay. The epitome of brutality. They then proceeded to beat SMU at home by 11, and beat Northwestern in the Arizona Tip-Off MTE by 2, and the Austin Peay loss was a distant memory by the time they played Mississippi State in the Arizona Tip-Off final, a game that saw Butler swing the upset 87-77. Since then Butler got smoked by Houston in Houston, and dropped a second buy game, this time to NDSU. Would the real Butler please stand up? Would I be surprised by any outcome for this team? Probably not. Could be anywhere from a tournament team to nothing. Part of the problem is that Butler is built on wing play. It lacks a front court or a back court. Having Jahmyl Telfort and Pierre Brooks playing in between Kolby King or Finley Bizjack at the point and Andre Screen at the 5 is like have caviar sandwiched between 2 harden dog turd crackers, a thing I just made up for this analogy. Ultimately, I just can’t bring myself to buy a team that lacks at the 2 most important and stabilizing positions.

   Prediction: 16-15 (9-11) - NIT Autobid

8. Providence - Providence just doesn’t look like it has the horses this season. You lost Devin Carter and replaced him with Bensley Joseph. You lost healthy Bryce Hopkins and replaced him with still-not-100%recovering Bryce Hopkins. You replaced Josh Oduro with Christ Essandoko. That is not a recipe for success. The one thing that hasn’t changed? The Dunk is still the most electric atmosphere in the conference, and the most slept-on atmosphere in the whole country. That will always create a floor for Providence that’s fairly high.

   Prediction: 16-15 (9-11) NIT at-large

9. Villanova - I’m not buying the renaissance. I still don’t trust Kyle Neptune as head coach, winning streak be damned. This roster is less talented than last year’s, so why would we expect better results? The lone bright spot for ‘nova: Eric Dixon is playing at a National Player of the Year level, but unfortunately is unlikely to win given how bad ‘nova is.

   Prediction: 11-20 (4-16); early start on the portal

10. Georgetown - Much improved, but there is only so much Ed Cooley can do. Literally. He’s an above average coach, at best.

    Prediction: 12-18 (4-16); early start on the portal

    LOLOLOLOL

11. Seton Hall - Sha is a great coach. That’s about the only nice thing you can say about Seton Hall. This year’s Seton Hall team epitomizes the old saw that sometimes, it’s not about the Xs & Os, but the Jimmies and the Joes. There’s only so many times Sha can do more with less, and as it turns out, this is the team that is too less. Unless Hall gets its NIL in order, if I were Sha, I’d start exploring my exit options while people are still giving him the benefit of the doubt on the issue.

    Prediction: 8-23 (3-17)

METRICS 101 AND A METRICS MANIFESTO

METRICS! METRICS! METRICS! Seems to be all anyone has talked about the last couple of seasons. Whose metrics are good? Whose are bad? Why are they that way? Why did team X with shitty metrics get in, while team Y with great metrics got sent to the NIT? I am really, really far from an expert. In fact, I would bet I have made some errors below or assumed too much. If you think I’ve made a mistake, hit me up on Twitter @frankingeneral or frank@onhighhoops.com. In any event, I will use my lay knowledge of metrics to attempt to answer most of the questions I laid out above.

THE MAJOR TYPES OF BASKETBALL TEAM METRICS

Efficiency Metrics

When we talk about team metrics in college basketball we are dealing with 2 main types: efficiency metrics and resume-based metrics. Broadly speaking, efficiency metrics measure how many points you score per 100 possessions versus how many points you give up per 100 possessions. Leaving you with an offensive efficiency number, a defensive efficiency number and a net efficiency by subtracting defensive efficiency from offensive efficiency. This is purely a statistical measure. You calculate the number of possessions in a game—since there’s no stat for possessions a formula has been created—and you take the actual points you scored or surrendered across those possessions, and extrapolate to 100 possessions. There is a small component of the possessions formula—the factor applied to FT attempts—that makes this portion slightly different from metric to metric.

The two major efficiency metrics—KenPom and Bart Torvik—both apply an adjustment based on the efficiency of the opponent: i.e. if you play the 300th most efficient offense and hold them to 50 points, no one is going to be impressed. So the metrics gurus account for that with their adjustments, which are generally proprietary portions of the efficiency formula. This is likely where the largest divergence is seen among efficiency metrics.

Generally, efficiency metrics do not care about wins and losses, they strictly care about efficiency as a means of predicting future success. It makes sense: the more you score and the less your opponents score the more games you are going to win moving forward. Further, when you have offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, you can calculate a projected score, something both Torvik and KenPom do. Efficiency is how Vegas calculates line, and it’s how a lot of sharp bettors make their picks. I have not tried it, but if you just tracked KenPom’s lines and bet every time there was a 2+ point gap between KenPom and the Vegas line you’d probably do ok.

There is a 3rd relevant efficiency metric and that is ESPN’s BPI. Functions generally the same, with the notable addition of a controversial altitude adjustment. While it would seem to make sense to apply such an adjustment—altitude is a huge advantage for the home team—based on research by a twitter user last season, the BPI’s altitude adjustment is far too harsh, and overly penalizes teams playing at altitude. This issue also taints ESPN’s resume-based metric, SOR, discussed below. When looking at BPI or SOR, it is important to keep in mind the altitude penalty.

Generally speaking, efficiency metrics respond best to blowout road wins. Emphasis on “road” and “blowout,” but they also consider strength of opponent. It just seems that too many teams are able to goose their efficiency metrics by blowing out bad teams. Some efficiency metrics—Torvik and non-team sheet metric Haslemetrics—attempt to overcome this issue by ignoring garbage time, or what Eric Haslem refers to as a game going “analytically final.” Meaning for all intents and purposes the game is over, and anything occurring after that point will not be counted metrically. KenPom, to my knowledge, contains no such guardrail.

Results-Based Metrics

On the flip side we have the results-based metrics, also called resume metrics. These consist of ESPN’s Strength of Record (“SOR”), the Kevin Pauga Index (“KPI”) and new for 2025 Wins Above Bubble (“WAB”). These are not meant to predict the future, but to simply evaluate each team’s resume in an objective way. Each functions slightly different, and all function behind a layer of opacity, but I will endeavor to describe them the best I can.

KPI—a metric I have tweeted about endlessly—is a deeply flawed resume metric. It takes into account the opponent’s winning percentage, opponent’s strength of schedule, scoring margin, pace of game, location, and opponent’s KPI ranking. However, if you follow me at all or have spent any time digging through KPI results, you know that the opponents KPI ranking and opponents SOS are much, much smaller components than opponents’ winning percentage. Using those components, KPI awards each game a score from 1.0 to -1.0, with wins scoring 0.0 to 1.0 and losses scoring 0.0 to -1.0. Those scores are ultimately averaged to determine the team’s KPI score.

SOR, per ESPN’s website, considers “opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections.” Do with that information what you will. My belief/educated guess is that “opponent strength” is measured by ESPN’s own BPI, another efficiency metric. The “day’s rest” and “travel distance” components are certainly unique to SOR, but definitely make sense. If a team traveled across country for a game—especially in the national conferences era—that should be accounted for. If a team is playing, oh I don’t know it’s 3rd game in 4 days at 11:00am on a Sunday, a results metric should account for that.

Finally, the best results-based metric: Wins Above Bubble—WAB. As the name implies, WAB is attempting to calculate how many more games you’ve won than the average bubble team (usually the 45th ranked team) would have won versus the same schedule. Bart Torvik has calculated WAB for years on his site, but the NCAA has set their own formula for WAB based on NET (whereas Bart’s is based on his own efficiency rankings). But as Torvik (and KenPom for that matter) and NET converge later in the season, when more data is available, the WAB metrics should be fairly similar as well. In essence, for WAB, every game is scored -1 to 1, and those scores are cumulative, so all 31 WAB game scores get added up to come to a final number. The score for each game is basically 1.0 for a win or -1.0 for a loss, minus or plus the probability (calculated by efficiency) that the average bubble team would win that game. So if an average bubble team has a 70% chance to win and a 30% chance to lose, if your team wins that game it is +0.3 WAB and if you lose that game it’s -0.7 WAB.

For results-metrics, the best results vary by metric. For SOR and WAB beating good teams is the key. For KPI the key is to beat teams that will win a lot of games. Frequently that is high quality teams, but a lot of lower conference powerhouses win a lot of games, and can be used to help goose one’s KPI when scheduling. In other words, if you’re a high major and your goal is to maximize your KPI rating, you want to beat a lot of mid- and low-major opponents that will win a ton of games in their conference.

What About NET?!

What about it? It’s by far the most talked about metric owing to its status as the NCAA’s own proprietary metric. It is also the most misunderstood. At its most basic, the NET is a hybrid efficiency and results metric. However, in a sign that NET either hews closer to efficiency or provides evidence for the predictive ability of efficiency, Torvik, KenPom and NET rankings all tend to converge by the end of the season with some differences.

One of the biggest myths in metrics is that the NET “ranking” is an actual ranking. Meaning people persist in their belief that the number 1 NET team is the 1 number 1 team in the country and the number 100 NET team is the 100th best team in the country. Or at least most people think the committee is supposed to think that way. That’s why people frequently wonder “how did team A get into the tournament/get left out of the tournament their NET is X.” So whenever this blog refers to a NET “ranking” picture it in scare quotes.

The NET was never intended to be a ranking tool. That is simply not the case, and it never has been. If the NET was a ranking tool you could dispense with the committee and just run down the NET to fill out the bracket. The NET is a ranking tool as the committee likes to call it. It is used to place Ws and Ls into quadrants for subjective record evaluation, and it is now used as the backbone of the NCAA’s proprietary WAB formula.

It’s very easy for people to criticize and write-off the NET as irrelevant. The NET is simply an easy target. It is owned and released by the NCAA and as the NCAA’s own metric, it is the most high profile metric—although perhaps KenPom gives it a run for its money—which means it’s frequently cited by bracketologists, analysts, coaches, fans, etc. as a measure of how good a team is. While the NET certainly attempts to do that, it was never meant to be precise, or to rank the teams in an order that corresponds to their resumes—that’s why it has a predictive efficiency component as well as a results component.

METRICS MANIFESTO

So how does one use all of these team sheet metrics to effectively discuss teams? It’s pretty simple. When discussing the quality of a W or L, refer to NET,  and the quads setup thereunder, which is what the committee does. When evaluating bids to the big dance, use the 3 resume metrics. If you want to evaluate possible bets or what the seeding might look like or which teams have the highest chance of success in the dance, look to an efficiency metric.

Following the snubs of Seton Hall, St. John’s and Providence last season I spent untold hours crunching numbers and trying to figure out what made the committee tick. As part of that, I ran a correlation function between each metric (the ones discussed above except Torvik, which was not on the team sheet, as well as “metrics” like Q1 win%, Q1&2 wins, and strength of schedule.

The most correlated metric was the “All Metrics Average” which included KenPom, BPI, NET, SOR, and KPI, with a .938 correlation, followed by an average of strictly resume metrics, which was .925 correlated. Of the individual metrics discussed herein, KPI had the highest correlation, .875, followed by the other resume metric on the team sheet last season, SOR, at .868 correlated. SOR’s correlation was likely harmed by how badly it undervalued most of the Mountain West teams that got in due to the altitude adjustment.

In other words, we need to shift the way we discuss metrics, tournament bids, bubble teams, etc. The focus is always NET and KenPom, and this year Torvik will slot in beside KenPom as the 2nd most-talked-about efficiency metric. Instead, bracketologists, bubble watchers, coaches and the like need to focus on the resume-based metrics for bids, and then the efficiency-based metrics for seeding.

I pledge to do my part. When discussing a team’s tournament prospects, I will focus predominantly on the resume-based metrics. When I discuss seeding or gambling, I will focus on efficiency metrics.

BIG EAST TWITTERATI POLL - WEEK 4 RESULTS

His shenanigans aren’t really shenanigans at all. Don’t be a Farva.

We got some very interesting results to breakdown this week. This was the first week I threw it out on the main timeline, and I would say it is the most successful to date. No shenanigans, and an excellent sample size and fan base breakdown. For the foreseeable future, we’ll continue to keep the poll open to the public. I trust no one will spam it or engage in other forms of shenanigans.

As noted elsewhere around these parts, this is the start of a big week for the Big East, with 11 HUGE Big12 Battle games on tap, as well as some other action around the league. The Big East had 20 opportunities left to make an impact in out-of-conference play. These votes came in on Monday, but since then the league has scored two HUGE victories in the opening two games of the Big12 Big East Battle, as ‘nova defeated Cincinnati—the latter now on Fraud Watch—68-60, a score that feels closer than the game ever was, and Providence, bolstered by 16/5/4 from Bryce Hopkins, who went 3-6 from the field and 10-12 at the line, and Jabri Abdur-Rahim—averaging just 6.5 points off the bench prior to last night—posted a season high of 21, adding 5 boards off the bench.

Clearly these results are not factored in, but felt it was worth mentioning given the lag and results between voting and this publication. Without further ado, here’s this week’s Big East Twitterati Power Poll:

1. Marquette (32) - 348

2. Butler - 292

3. UConn (1) - 288

4. Creighton (1) - 275

5. St. John’s (5) - 260

6. Xavier - 258

7. DePaul (1) - 252

8. Georgetown (3) - 153

9. Providence - 123

10. Villanova - 121

11. Seton Hall - 50

Marquette maintains its grasp on first place, getting 13/18 last week, getting 32/36 possible (44 responses minus 8 Marquette voters) this week. No surprises there.

The BIG surprise of the week is the Butler Bulldogs, bouncing up to No. 2 all the way from 8th on the backs of an Arizona Tip-Off championship that saw them beat Northwestern by 2, and dominate a quality Mississippi State team 87-77. Voters did not really reward the Bulldogs last week for their win over SMU, but have rewarded them this week. The upset lose to Austin Peay now a distant memory, the Bulldogs once again in position to make a charge for an NCAAT berth.

Beyond that, the voters STILL believe in UConn and Creighton, as they each got 1 first place vote (from a Marquette fan who couldn’t vote his own team), and enough points to land 4th and 5th respectively, narrowly edging out St. John’s despite the Johnnies receiving the 2nd most 1st place votes. In fact, the Johnnies were the biggest drop of the week, falling 2 spots from 3rd to 5th.

The other interesting note, we’re starting to see some striation occurring based on the points. Clear tiers have emerged:

Tier 1 - Marquette
Tier 2 - Butler, UConn, Creighton, St. John’s, Xavier and DePaul
Tier 3 - Georgetown, Providence and Villanova
Tier 4 - Seton Hall

Will be interesting to see how this shakes out next week with Providence and Villanova already garnering big wins this week.

Player of the Week

This week’s winner, going back-to-back in our Player of the Week voting:

Kameron Jones (12/45 votes)

Kameron Jones just continues to produce, it’s that simple. Sure Stonehill and Western Carolina aren’t exactly a murder’s row scheduling-wise, but Kam showed out nonetheless posting 17 points, 4 rebounds and 7 assists per game. He shot 50% from deep, 80% from 2, for a 78.6% eFG.

Others receiving Votes: Jahmyl Telfort (11), RJ Luis (8), Conor Enright (2), Micah Peavy (2), Ryan Mela (2), Bryce Hopkins (1 - amazing, he hadn’t even played yet), I dunno man (1), Jacob Meyer (1), Jerome Hunter (1), None, everyone sucked (1), Thomas Sorber (1)

Fan Pulse

Let’s check-in with the fan bases and see how they feel about their respective teams:

1. Marquette - 9.3

2. Georgetown - 7.5

3. DePaul - 7.3

4. Seton Hall - 7.3

5. Butler - 7.0

6. St. John’s - 5.8

7. Xavier - 5.2

8. UConn - 5.0

9. Creighton - 4.0

10. Providence - 3.3

11. Villanova - 3.0

I guess Hall fans don’t want me to see them be realistic about their team, with 2 fans stating their “fan pulse” as a 10/10, and the only smart Hall fan a more realistic 2/10. Georgetown fans have always been irrationally confident in this era in the nation’s capital, even if it comes off as mildly delusional. DePaul and Marquette fans also in the top-3, both rightfully enjoying their teams’ performances to date.

That’s all for this week. Keeping the poll public for the time being, so keep on eye out for the next poll form on Sunday or Monday!

Previewing the Last Big East-Big12 Challenge

Put up or shut up time for the Big East

I’m simultaneously irrationally excited about this edition of the Big East-Big12 Challenge, but also massively disappointed. The Big12 has decided it has no use for us anymore, I suppose the conference as a whole is of the same mind as Jerome Tang, who infamously said last year that his team gains nothing from playing the Big East. It’s not tough to see why: in 6 attempts last year vs. high majors KSU was just 3-3, with none of the wins coming against NCAAT teams (PC, ‘nova & LSU), and 2 losses coming to non-NCAAT teams as well (USC & Miami).

In other words, Jerome Tang, and the Big12, LOOOOOOOOOVVVVVEEEE them some cupcakes. It’s not just Tang, the entire Big12 loves to feast on some cupcakes, playing almost as many games against power conference opponents—52—as against competition 250 or below in KenPom—50. TCU (242), Iowa State (245), Cincinnati (308), BYU (315), Texas Tech (335), Kansas St. (342) and Utah (364) each have sub-240 KenPom OOC SOS. That group includes 3 of the top-6 (ISU, Cincy & TTU) teams in the league, 4 others with legitimate tournament expectations. Completely shameless.

Cupcake city. And yet, in games to date the Big12 is 2-0 versus the Big East:

New Big12 logo courtesy of Gemini AI.

Colo. v. UConn, 73-72 (N)
Baylor v. SJU, 99-98 (2OT)(N)

On paper, one matchup favored the Big East (Colo. v. UConn), and one was evenly matched (BU v. SJU), so the Big East should be 1-1 at worst in this incredibly small sample size.

Meanwhile, the Big East has not been not very good going 10-9 versus the other 4 power conferences. The results are not much better against what I will call the “Next 4",” i.e. the 4 top mid-major conferences: A10, AAC, MWC and WCC, going 5-5 versus teams in those conferences, and one of the wins is DePaul’s home win against A10 bottom-feeder Duquesne.

Needless to say, the Big East has some serious work remaining in out-of-conference play—which will shortly be a blog post of its own—but for now, suffice to say this final Big12 Challenge could be the most important to date for the Big East. So with that background, let’s preview the games:

Tuesday, December 3

Cincy at Villanova - on paper, a massive mismatch. Cincinnati comes 6-0, sitting 9th in KenPom. But a deeper dive into their resume indicates the record can be misleading, with their best win coming on the road at KP# 106, Georgia Tech. They have not played a single other opponent inside KenPom’s top-200 to date.

Despite Cincy is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, clocking in at 41.5%, good for 9th per KenPom. Villanova is also no slouch behind the arc, making 38.6% of its 3-pointers, good for 27th in the country per KenPom. To this point in the season, ‘nova has been more reliant on the 3, taking 46% of their FGA from behind the arc, compared to 37.7% for Cincy. Additionally, Cincy’s 3-point defense is 11th in the country per KenPom, allowing opponents to shoot a stingy 25.2% (obviously SOS has something to do with this). However, they haven’t faced an opponent that can shoot like ‘nova can. On the flip side, ‘nova’s defense has not been good, clocking in at 106th in Adj.D. per KenPom, and it only gets worse when you scroll down and see that they’re 288th in the country in 3-point defense, allowing 35.9% shooting from deep. Cincy also shoots elite from 2, scoring 60.9% of its baskets, combined with the 3-point shooting it makes for the 24th best offense in America, and the #1 eFG % in the country, 61.4%.

The only chance ‘nova has is if: A) Cincy are complete frauds that have feasted on cupcakes (metrics seem to indicate that is not the case); B) ‘nova shoots the lights out and Cincy struggles in the friendly confines of the Finn, which can be a tough gym to shoot it I’d imagine, given the unique roof lines and backdrops. Nova also needs to play aggressive defense. Cincy takes care of the ball (33rd in TO%), but they cannot hit foul shots to save their lives—Cincy is 352nd of 364 teams in FT%, shooting just 59.38% from the stripe. Does ‘nova have the depth to waste a lot of fouls this way? To play a hack-a-Bearcat defense? Probably not…but freshman Josiah Moseley and seniors Enoch Boakye and Nnanna Njoku are all low production front-court players who have 5 fouls each, so that’s 15 right there. Would love to see this deployed in the 2nd half. St. John’s legend Dillon Mitchell is a prime front court candidate for the hack-a-Bearcat strategy, as he’s shooting just 6.7% from the stripe (not a typo), going 1-15. Contributors Jizzle James (57.1%), Tyler Betsey (33.3%) also all shoot sub-60%, albeit in smaller sample sizes.

Prediction: BearWildcats in a romp, 78-61

Result: As predicted, a Wildcats romp. HUGE win for Villanova. I’m not saying they’re back in NCAAT contention just yet, but it’s a step in the right direction. It’s also big for the league, as it will help ‘nova metrically.

BYU at PC - The BYU Soakers make their first ever-trip to The Dunk, where I am certain the PC fans will give them a nice, friendly east-coast-Catholic welcome. While I’m trying to be funny, it raises the very real truth: The Dunk is an incredibly difficult place to play, and one of the greatest home court advantages in all of college basketball. Certainly the most under-the-radar home court advantage.

But home court can only carry you so far. One of the biggest keys here will be Bryce Hopkins’ health. It’s been a roller coaster of emotions for PC fans. He’s been cleared, but did not play in The Bahamas amid rumors of discord between the staff/training staff and Hopkins’ camp about his readiness. This morning it was reported he has a chance to play tonight. Whether this is a legitimate possibility or the staff leaking info to attempt to apply public pressure on Hopkins is anyone’s guess. Even if Hopkins comes back, what can fans realistically expect from a player who has not played in almost a year, is coming off an ACL tear, and seems, at best, to be hesitant about playing at this juncture.

This also starts a crucial stretch for PC. Coming off 3-straight losses in The Bahamas, PC would love to run off 3 straight quality wins to close out their OOC slate: v. BYU, @ Rhode Island, v. St. Bonaventure (N). 3 wins in this last OOC stretch their could salvage the season. In between those games is also a newly-tricky trip to the Second City to face the friskiest DePaul team in a generation. Certainly a game not to be overlooked.

On the court, BYU comes in battle-tested, losing to KP # 41 Ole Miss in overtime, before beating NC State 72-61, both games in the Rady Children’s Invitational in San Diego last weekend. This game will be won or lost on the glass. Both teams are top-25 in the country in offensive rebound rate, and top-10 in the country in defensive rebound rate. SOMETHING has to give. If Hopkins is back and contributing at even 70% of his old self, that could be the difference on the glass. In The Bahamas PC rebounded well, pulling down 30.7 RPG, 10 of them offensive versus their opponents 28 & 4.3. At the Rady Invitational, BYU pulled down 38, with 12 being offensive to their opponents 30.5 & 7.5. BYU plays significantly faster, so it’s not surprising a raw average would favor them, but the rebounding rates are very close. (38.4 BYU v. 37.8 PC in OR rate and 19.0 v. 21.7 DR rate).

And about that tempo…that will be another key. PC does not have the horses to get into a track meet with BYU. PC struggled with Indiana’s pace at Atlantis, and looked better in the defeats to Oklahoma and Davidson, both of whom play slower. PC is 331/362 in tempo, and while BYU isn’t anyone’s idea of fast, they play 4 possessions per game faster than PC, good for 119th in America. Whichever team imposes their tempo is going to have a big advantage.

Prediction: Logic is telling me that BYU should win this one, but I envision a tight game. And in a tight game, The Dunk Mystique could be the deciding factor. Add in the fact that Bryce Hopkins might return tonight—which would provide a huge boost on the court, but also for the fans in attendance—I have to lean PC in a close one, 67-63.

Results: Well I was dead wrong. It wasn’t a tight game at all. But it was a PC victory. Hopkins answered the bell in a big way, pouring in 16 points, 10 of which came at the stripe.

Wednesday, December 4

Baylor at UConn - Baylor has been a mixed-bag so far this year, getting absolutely smoked by Gonzaga and Tennessee, but racking up quality wins over Arkansas—although Cal’s team may be fraudulent, they’re certainly on fraud watch—and my own Johnnies. The metrics are not as high on Baylor as the general public and the AP voters, as Torvik has the Bears at just 39th when you remove the preseason projections from the equation. NET, which factors in results alongside efficiency, likes the Bears a little better, slotting them in at 23.

UConn is coming off a blowout win over University of Maryland-Eastern Shore…a competitive matchup no doubt, which came on the heels of a bad performance in Maui, with UConn losing to Memphis and Colorado in by 2 points and 1 point, respectively, before getting their doors blown off by Dayton 85-67. Throughout the trip the Huskies looked unable to defend at the level we’ve come to expect from Hurley teams, posting a 131.5 defensive efficiency rating in Maui. UConn’s defense has traditionally relied on elite individual defenders, backed-up by an elite defense center (Sanogo & Clingan). UConn simply does not have that this year. Mahaney is a liability defensively and Memphis picked on him repeatedly. Samson Johnson and Taris Reed simply cannot defend and rim-protect at the same level as Sanogo and Clingan. McNeely is a freshmen and plays defense like one. As great as he is offensively, Karaban is a mediocre defender.

Underscoring these defensive woes is foul trouble. In Maui UConn committed 24 personal fouls per game, conceding 32.7 FTAs per game for their opponents. The defense was also abysmal behind the arc, where UConn let its Maui opponents shoot 52.7% from deep on 18.3 3PAs per game. Do I believe Dan Hurley can figure something out and right the ship? Of course, it’d be silly to doubt him, but as I heard on a national college basketball podcast recently, while coaching is important, you also need to have “the Joes,” and at the moment too many UConn doesn’t seem to have enough Joes to play to its expected level.

Gampel Pavilion provides a pretty strong home court advantage. UConn has won 29 of its last 30 games at Gampel. That streak can be a little misleading since some bigger games tend to get moved to Hartford, and UConn plays most of its marquee OOC opponents at neutral sites or in MTEs. Nonetheless, I expect it to be a raucous crowd in attendance that will attempt to rattle the visiting Bears.

While Gampel makes UConn’s task easier, it is impossible to preview this game without noting that Alex Karaban will be missing his 2nd straight game with a concussion sustained in the last game in Maui. In his absence, freshman Liam McNeeley and sophomore Jaylin Stewart will be asked to pick up the slack on the wing, while Solo Ball and Hassan Diarra will face more pressure to run the offense to get quality looks in the absence of Karaban’s shooting. It’s a tall ask for a team that felt under-manned to begin the season.

Baylor feels perfectly positioned to exploit UConn’s issues, shooting 38.1% from deep, good for 48th in the country, and takes 28 3PA per game (56th in country). While Johnnies Legend Norchad Omier has shot very poorly from deep this season (18.2%), he’s posting his highest eFG (60.8%) since his sophomore year at Arkansas State (63.4%), buoyed by 85.2% shooting at the rim (under 4.5 feet) and 54.5% in the rest of the paint, where he attempts most of his shots—44.6% of his attempts. Combined at the rim and in-the-paint accounts for 81.1% of his shot attempts, and most of his 15.9 points per game. He’s also a walking double-double, averaging 10.4 boards this season. It will be imperative for UConn to keep him out of the lane. Without Karaban, this will be particularly tough. The matchups just don’t favor UConn, as it will be Samson or Reed on Baylor’s center, leaving McNeely or Stewart on Omier? Give me the wily vet in that matchup.

Prediction: Danny Hurley has had a week and a game to figure out his defense, and find a way to win without Karaban? If any one can do it, it’s Danny Hurley. Unfortunately, this Baylor team has too much talent in my opinion. They continue to get better as new pieces start to gel more efficiently. Give me Baylor by 5, 70-65

Result: Danny Hurley found a way to get it done without Karaban, winning 76-72. Baylor was without Edgecombe, and Roach was limited to 23 minutes after suffering a concussion. Celestine fouled out with 7:23 on the clock. But none of that detracts from a job well-done by UConn. They had a job to do without their star, who is worth far more to this team than Roach or Edgecombe or Celestine are to Baylor. Maybe more than the latter 2 combined. And early, it looked like maybe missing Karaban would be too much, as UConn struggled early and Baylor jumped out to a 19-8 lead. But UConn battled back, led by freshmen Liam McNeeley’s 17 points, 8 assists, 3 blocks, and Diarra’s 7 assists. Even Aidan Mahaney contributed in a big way, going 3-4 from deep for 9 points in just 18 minutes. All-in-all an impressive performance from the Huskies.

Marquette at Iowa St. - What a juicy matchup. The clear bannerman of the Big East through the first month—Marquette—travels to Ames to face Iowa State. Undefeated Marquette riding on a nation-high 8-game win-streak. These teams are similar in a lot of ways. Both teams like to play fast on offense, while stifling teams into long possessions on the defensive end. Marquette’s average offensive possession lasts 15 seconds (12), while Iowa St.’s lasts 15.2 (21), and on the flip side Marquette’s defensive possessions last 18.4 (330th) seconds on average and ISU’s 18.9 (355th). Both teams play in your face, aggressive styles of defense, and are elite at turning teams over, with Marquette sporting a 25.2% TO rate, good for 3rd nationally and ISU gets turnovers on 23.6% of their defensive possessions, good for 9th nationally. Marquette also ranks number 1 in Steal % per KenPom. Steals are critical to what  Neither have elite front courts, but ISU has been the better rebounding team to date, with the caveat that they’ve played a softer schedule.

Both teams are mediocre shooting the 3-ball, with Marquette ranking 140th, at 34% and ISU rankings 158th at 33.6%. Marquette likes to play much more behind the ark though, taking 47.7% of its attempts from deep, versus just 25.3 for ISU. ISU makes up for its lack of 3’s by getting into the lane for easy buckets, rankings first in 2-pt FG% at 61.1. That inside attack is keyed by Keshon Gilbert, a player who fearlessly drives to the rim without concern for his own safety. I watched a game this year, either the Auburn or Dayton game in Maui, where Gilbert got whacked in the nose, appeared to be out cold for a second, gets up after a minute on the ground. Drills the 2 FTs, made a great play to get the defensive stop, and took the ball hard to the rim again the very next offensive possession. Marquette’s guards, undoubtedly the strength of this roster, will have their hands full keeping Gilbert out of the lane. Ben Gold will also have his hands full on the inside with Dishon Jackson. The key here will be defending without fouling, bring the help on the other side to try to force TOs—although Jackson is pretty strong with the ball in his hands—or force him to kick it out. The only 2 real threats out there are Milan Momcilovic (sounds like a Serbian war criminal) and Curtis Jones, shooting 47.1% and 40%, respectively. The rest of the team has shot 25% or worse from deep this year.

Ultimately, the way to beat Marquette is with elite interior play. Does Dishon Jackson rise to the occasion in his first year in Ames? To date he’s played good, not great. The bigs that gave Marquette trouble last year, when they had a much better center in Oso Ighodaro, were Edey, Kalkbrenner, & Clingan. This year they struggled to contain Derik Queen, but won anyway. They struggled to contain Georgia’s freshman sensation Asa Newell, but won anyway. For my money, Edey, Kalk & Clingan are all light years better than Jackson, while Jackson is—at best—as good as Queen and Newell, as both are still freshmen. The other important distinction…the 5 guys I mentioned are/were the primary scorers for their respective sides. Jackson is not. Asking him to step here as a scorer may be more than he can handle.

Prediction: This one is too tight to call. I like Marquette to keep it close and cover the spread, but it’s way too close to call who wins. The teams are basically mirror images of each other. Ames can be a tough place to play, and Shaka’s Marquette teams historically have been weaker on the road. But Marquette has already been tested on the road at Maryland, and the beauty of the continuity of Shaka’s approach is that these guys have seen and played in big road games for Marquette before. The coaching matchup is pretty even for me, I think these are 2 of the top-20/25 coaches in the country, so no edges to be found there. Ultimately, I just don’t think Jackson gives Iowa State what it needs to win today. Marquette’s guards can definitely contain Iowa State’s guards enough to win. Regardless, this game should be fast-paced, up-and-down, and action-packed. By far the most anticipated matchup on the slate that doesn’t involve St. John’s. Give me the Golden Eagles, 88-87

Result: a little bit too optimistic here. Iowa State ran the Golden Eagles back to Milwaukee, 81-70. Gilbert feasted, posting 24 points and 7 assists, and got to the line a game-high 8 times. Joshua Jefferson tortured Marquette inside, posting 15 points and 11 boards on 7-9 shooting from 2-point range. Dishon Jackson also played efficiently, but Marquette more effectively denied him the ball. Jackson had 11 points on 4-5 shooting, adding 7 boards and 2 blocks.

Kansas at Creighton - Spread seems artificially low here. Creighton has struggled to date, and even though they are at home, you have No. 1 in the country Kansas only laying 4.5 to the Blue Jays? Color me shocked. But wait! Creighton has one of the best defensive bigs in the country to attempt to neutralize Dickinson. The drop coverage can also help neutralize some of the guard play of Mayo & Harris. Interesting viewing note for my Johnnies friends, AJ Storr has been lightly used in Lawrence to date. But the last time he played in Omaha he dropped 23 points on 56.3% from the field and 60% from deep. Something about that drop coverage must suit his eye. The other problem for the Jays: Kansas is elite at nailing the mid-range 2, ranking in the 92nd percentile in mid-range 2 FG%, at 46.0%. The mid-range game is the surest bet against the Jays, as that’s the exploit left by the drop coverage.

Prediction: Kansas in a rout as things get worse in Omaha before they get better. AJ Storr has a monster game, and Kansas drills the mid-range to death and to victory. Kansas 75-61.

Result: Could not have been more wrong in this one. Creighton controlled this game beginning to end, but for a stretch where they couldn’t score wrapping around the half. That stretch saw Kansas pull to within 1, 42-41, before a Cockbrenner dunk, 2 Pop Isaacs 3-pointers, and an Ashworth FT promptly got the lead back to 10, 51-41. Kansas never got within 5 again, as Creighton kept them at arm’s length and pulled a way late thanks to their defense, closing out the Jayhawks 76-63. Ryan Cockbrenner was fantastic, playing 38 minutes and going for 17 and 10. Pop Isaacs was sublime, shooting 10-15, 6-9 from deep for 27 points, 7 boards and 4 assists. This is the version of Creighton most people expected.

DePaul at Texas Tech - It’s DePaul, what more do you need to know? (OK I just ran outta time today as I have had too much work to do).

Prediction: DePaul shoots the lights out in Lubbock and rides away to victory! 90-82

Result: TTU 76-62. Do I still believe in DePaul? Goddamn right I do. This just wasn’t there game. They didn’t shoot great (just 31.4% from deep, 42.1% from the field), and they lost the rebound and turnover battles 34-28 and 14-6, respectively. But the plucky Blue Demons showed plenty of heart. TTU jumped out to an early 14-0 lead, But the ‘mons battled back, tying the game on a Isaiah Rivera 3 shortly before the U8 timeout. A TTU buzzer beater at the half was all that separated DePaul from a lead in the locker room. Instead they trailed by 1. The 2nd half was all TTU, opening up a quick 9-pt lead, and never letting the ‘mons get closer than 6 points.

Is DePaul for real? As noted above, I believe they are. The metrics are still profiling like an bubble/NIT team. IF they wanna be on the right side of the bubble they best take care of business against their remaining 2 half-decent opponents: Wichita State and Northwestern. While neither team is great, they’re both respectable wins. The Northwestern game in particular, being on the road, is very important. The committee really values Q1 road wins, and as of now NWern qualifies. If NWern can win a couple games before that December 21st matchup, it’ll help solidfy them as a Q1 opponent on the road.

Thursday, December 5

Xavier at TCU - The only Battle game on the slate tonight, as 7-1 X heads to Fort Worth to face the Horned Frogs on the absolute worst basketball court in America. I’m glad I will be at a concert instead of getting vertigo watching this game on my television. Really though, I’m disappointed to be missing what should be a fun game between 2 teams that love to run. TCU scores 21.3% of its points on fast breaks, 97th percentile in America. Xavier scores 26.6% of its points on fast breaks, 100th percentile in America.

Both teams ignite those fast breaks with aggressive defense that turns the opposition offer, with TCU turning opponents over 15.6 times per game, good for 92nd percentile per CBB analytics. X also forces a fair amount of turnovers, 13.8 per game, good for 74th percentile. TCU averages 18 points off turnovers to Xavier’s 15.9. The difference here, TCU is abysmal at defending the fast break, giving up 15.3% of its opponents’ points on fast breaks, while Xavier’s defense concedes 13.1% of its opponents’ points on fast breaks. Advantage X.

That said, TCU’s offense tends to stagnate in the half-court due to its lack of playmakers at this level. That leaves the scoring pretty balanced, looking like:

Frankie Collins: 11.3
Trazerien White: 9.9
Vasean Allette: 9.7
Noah Reynolds: 9.7
Brendan Wenzel: 8.4
Udeh: 7.8

So pick your poison. They can beat you inside, with their guards or on the wings. Despite this balanced scoring attack, they’re a pretty poor shooting team, sporting just a 49.2% eFG (43rd percentile), and 32.1% from deep (41st percentile).

For X, the biggest key will be shooting from deep. They shoot a very good 38.7% from 3-pointland, god for 92nd percentile. That said, they do not shoot as many 3’s as you’d expect from such a good shooting team, just 47th percentile in 3PAs per game, 22.6 and 51st percentile in 3-point attempt rate. TCU allows a lot of 3 pointer attempts per game, 23.7 (40th percentile), but opponents shoot just 28.9% on those attempts (86th percentile).

The key for X will be finding a way to drain the opportunities they get from deep. Michigan, in beating TCU, shot 9-24 from deep (37.5%). TCU also really struggles to quality wings and larger guards, so guys like Freemantle, Swain, Hunter, and Conwell should have some good looks in this one.

Prediction: X is just the more-talented team, so after all that, no need to overthink it. But if you do overthink things, X is well-positioned to exploit TCU’s defense. Xavier 84-76

Result: Sometimes you should just stick with your gut instinct on a team. My gut instinct was always that this Xavier team was not very good, and that the transfers other than Conwell were simply not good enough. So far I’ve been proven right. Maddox has been a bust for the Musketeers, averaging just 4.7 points after posting 15.6 for Toledo a year ago. Marcus Foster has prove to be an asset defensively, but has not been productive offensively after averaging 17 points per game last season for Furman. John Hugley been a complete non-factor. Cam’Ron Fletcher can’t even get off the bench.  Mea culpa, I was wrong about the existing pieces. I didn’t think Freemantle and Hunter would come back at the same productivity levels. Other than poor 3-point shooting, Freemantle looks like the best version of himself, and Hunter was never a huge producer offensively, and he’s mostly slotted back into his role as a defender with limited offensive capabilities. Meanwhile Dailyn Swain has taken a bit of a sophomore leap, posting 8.4 ppg on 64%eFG, while grabbing 5 boards and 2.6 assists in 26.7 mpg.

However, without the expected production from the incoming transfers, particularly Maddox and Foster, this team will continue to struggle. That was on full display last night, as Conwell, Freemantle, and Swain went for 17, 16 & 12 respectively, with no one else breaking double digits, although Maddox posted an admirable 9 points on 3-4 shooting from deep. Xavier lost 72-76.

Friday, December 6

Georgetown v. WVU - Do I HAVE to preview this one?! lol. Fine. Sadly, this is one of the best games on a dead night of college basketball. These are two teams in rebuilding mode. WVU after Huggy Bear’s misdeeds off the court and Georgetown after…well Patrick Ewings (entirely less serious) misdeeds on the court. Year 2 on Cooley is off to a mixed start. Efficiency metrics do not love the Hoyas: Georgetown is 96 in Torvik if you remove the preseason projections. They surprisingly sport the 49th best defense (which is adjusted for opponent quality), but only the 200th best offense.

On defense the Hoyas generate a lot of turnovers, with 23.7% TO rate to date, 8th in the country per Torvik. West Virginia has not done a great job of protecting the ball, coming it with a 17.3% turnover rating, 158th in the country. On the flip side, WVU is a decent shooting team, posting 35% from behind the arc, which should help them exploit Georgetown’s anemic 3-point defense, which allows opponents to shoot 34.7% from deep, 237th in the country per KenPom.

On the flip side, Georgetown is going to have to get to the rim and pound the ball inside to Sorber. WVU’s defense is pretty-well balanced, with opponents shooting just 29.8% from deep, and only 44.4% from 2-pointland. Look for WVU to be patient, and slowly breakdown the Georgetown defense for a good look from deep. Despite its excellent defensive steal % (15.2, 3rd in the country), the GTown defense allows a lot of assists, ranking 286th in assist percentage, at 57.7 (286th in the country).

Georgetown also has a big rebounding edge. Georgetown’s offense rebounds the ball at 35.8% rate, good for 45th in the country, versus WVU allowing opponents an offensive rebound rate for 32.5%, 273rd in the country. The same holds true on the other end, where WVU is 228th in the nation in offensive rebound percentage versus 152nd for Georgetown’s defensive rebound %. WVU does not have a single player over 6’8” that averages more than 15 minutes. The only true center on the roster, Eduardo Andre—at 6’11”—only gets 14 mpg, averaging just 3.5 & 3.8. He will have his hands full if he draws the assignment of guarding Sorber for big minutes.

Prediction: Georgetown fans already hate me, so I have no qualms admitting that I came into this preview fully expecting to this to point me towards a WVU blowout. But I have actually talked myself into the idea that Georgetown could win this game. It will be a battle of who can impose their will. Neither team has shown any prowess in guarding the other’s strength. I like Sorber to feast, and if Georgetown can generate enough extra possessions with offensive rebounding and TOs, they just might win this thing. I’m  going to predict Georgetown to pull off the road upset, 78-77. From a betting perspective I LOVE the value on Georgetown +8.5, I’d hammer that. I also like the over 143.5, as you can tell by my score prediction. I accept no responsibility should these picks lose you money. 

CHECK BACK HERE LATER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PREVIEWS!

BIG EAST TWITTER POLL - WEEK 3

Well, we missed week 2 while I was in The Bahamas watching SJU disappoint me, per usual, and we’re a day late (but not a dollar short) here in Week 3. However, it doesn’t look like the Twitter cognoscenti are as disappointed by the Johnnies, bumping them up a spot to 3.

Without further ado, here’s the results of the Week 3 Twitter Poll, as always parens indicate first place votes, after the hyphen is total points:

1. Marquette (13) - 175

2. UConn (5) - 140

3. St. John’s - 117

4. Creighton - 108

5. Xavier - 101

6. DePaul - 91

7. Providence - 78

8. Butler - 70

9. Seton Hall - 41

10. Georgetown - 35

11. Villanova - 34

A new number 1: Marquette Golden Eagles, who have looked red hot ever since I tweeted that they were frauds early in the CMU victory. Since then they went on the road to beat Maryland, came home and beat AP Poll #6 Purdue in dominant fashion—an 18-point victory—and went down to Atlantis for a one-off neutral site victory over Georgia, 80-69. You’re welcome Marquette fans.

Should be noted that these votes were cast before UConn’s loss to Memphis in their first real game of the season. Will be interesting to see how the voters react. Certainly a lot will depend on how the rest of UConn’s Maui trip goes.

Butler and Hall were the biggest climbers, jumping 2 spots each. Butler’s jump no doubt on the strength of their win over SMU at Hinkle. Hall on the strength of 2 top-100 KenPom wins over 42 VCU in OT and 93 FAU, games which sandwiched a lopsided loss to Vandy in the Charleston semis.

Nova & Georgetown each tumble 2 spots. For Georgetown it was the loss of the first real test and nothing else but 2 wins over the softest, moistest, most delicious cupcakes. Since the week 1 poll ‘nova has lost to St. Joe’s, a bad UVa team, and Maryland, with their lone win in that span coming at home vs. UPenn. At least they’re not going to finish 6th in the Big 5 this year!

Player of the (2) Week(s)

Kam Jones, duh!

This one was a no brainer, or as one voter (non-Marquette) put it in his responses:

Kam Jones, duh (10.5/18)

Since the week 1 poll Jones has averaged 16.8 ppg, including 2 in the W over Maryland, and 17 in the W over Purdue. He also dished out 6.5 apg and took down 5.8 bpg. He posted a triple double in that Purdue game, slashing 17/13/10, for what I understand to be the first triple-double in Marquette program history (a stat I find wild given the program’s illustrious history, and if that stat is not true, blame the Scrambled Eggs podcast, as I heard it there). He was also pretty efficient, shooting 55% from the field, and an eFG of 60.6%.

Others Receiving Votes:

Eric Dixon (3) - Poor Eric. I don’t usually comment on the “others” in the POY ballot, but had to comment here. Not sure what else he can do both for his team. He got my vote, going for 26.3/6.8/1.8 over the last 2 weeks, including an insane 38 point performance against Maryland. Unfortunately ‘nova has absolutely no help for him. And lest you think he’s just racking up volume, he was quite efficient as well, shooting 50% from deep, 49.4% from the field on 19.3 shots per game. a TS% of 63.1 and eFG of 59.7. Unfortunately for Eric, the voters have spoken, and winning matters in POTW voting!

Conor Enright (1), David Joplin (1), Luke Fonts (1), Zuby Ejiofor (0.5)

Fan Pulse

On a scale of 1-10, 10 being the best, here’s how our panel views their own teams:

UConn - 9

DePaul - 8

Xavier - 7.6

St. John’s - 6.5

Butler - 6

PC - 6

Creighton - 4.5

Seton Hall - 3

Georgetown - no responses

Marquette - no responses

Villanova - no responses

Never ones to lack in self-confidence, UConn fans were feeling plenty good about their team at the time of voting…wonder what the vibes are like in Maui right now??

DePaul comes in 2nd on the Fan Pulse rankings with an 8/10. This is the best DePaul team in years, and while that may only be a mid-table or 2nd tier team this season, DePaul fans have every right to be amped up about both this season, and the future under Chris Holtmann.

Seton Hall fans being perhaps a bit too harsh on their squad after 2 respectable wins in Charleston. They’re a long way from being an NCAAT team, or even an NIT team like last season, but they still have Sha…and that’s about all I can say to try and cheer you guys up, sorry Hall fans!

Moving forward, I’m hopefully—if my ADHD brain cooperates—going to create a regular panel, with 5 Twitter accounts per fan base. If you’ve been voting, don’t worry, you’ll be on the list. If you’d like on the list, particularly Marquette and Villanova fans, reach out. I presume Georgetown fans are boycotting my content because they hate me for reminding them that Ed Cooley is a snake and their program is still in the toilet in year 2, but if there’s any Georgetown fans willing to participate, hit me up!

“Same ol’ St. John’s” - On a Bahamas Trip Gone Wrong, Generational Sports Trauma, and Common Sense

The flight down flew by—figuratively, but thankfully literally as well—the anticipation of the biggest non-conference game in my 15 years vs. a Baylor squad that many think can make a lot of noise come March. Coming off a dominant performance against a top-60 KenPom team, and likely tournament team, New Mexico on Sunday, the world felt full of possibilities.

A lighthouse. IYKYK.

And the good omens were everywhere. On the way down, my wife and I had a whole row—the full 6 seats—to ourselves on the emptiest flight I’ve seen in maybe a decade. That was Monday. Upon checking into our hotel (not Baha Mar), we posted up on the beach, where I saw another good omen, in the form of an inside joke with some of my #SJUBB Twitter crew: a lighthouse perched on the island across the harbor from my hotel. On Thursday, we (Mrs. FiG and I) hung by the pools at Baha Mar with friends. As we were leaving the pool, another good omen, I stumbled across an elderly British man sporting the crest of Sheffield Wednesday—a team a few of my #SJUBB friends have adopted as our own, given we all had pre-existing allegiances to EPL teams.

This delightful old British man and I bonded over our love of the Owls #COYO.

The vibes were immaculate as the kids say…until the weren’t.

Started with the official St. John’s pre-game at the Swimming Pig. The vibes were great, but soured by atrocious service. The omens had started turning. It was as if the restaurant/bar was totally unaware that a few hundred SJU fans would be disrupting their Thursday dinner time. It took 45 minutes to get a drink, which we took to go to get good seats in the largely GA “arena”. Arrived to the convention hall a couple minutes before 6 only to find the line to get in was already a mile long. More bad omens.

Once inside, we grabbed the best seats we could (2 rows behind the SJU bench but behind the baseline). Not the best view, but so close to the bench it made up for it. But the bad omens continued, went to the bar only to discover one of the stupidest setups in the history of sports (and I say this as someone who frequents Carnesecca Arena)—rather than have 5 bartenders, the convention hall had 3 cashiers from whom you had to purchase drink tickets, and then 2 bartenders who would turn those tickets into drinks. A piss poor setup if I ever saw, but we powered through and got our drinks.

The view from Thursday’s seats in the corner.

Bad omens be damned, with drinks in hand we settled in for what we expected to be a battle. Instead we got 2 20-minute blow-outs, followed by 10 minutes of back-and-forth battling.

Somehow, the vibes got even higher before they came crashing down. St. John’s racing out to a 7-0 lead, and extending it to an 18-point lead when RJ Luis hit a 3 with 4:07 to go in the half, 42-24. Baylor went on a mini 6-2 run to close the half, but the Red Storm fans were BUZZING at halftime. Riding high on the back of a dominant half.

Baylor came out ready at the half, with a 10-5 run to start it off, and continued to slowly chip away at the lead. SJU had some responses, particular with around the 4 minute mark, when Kadary Richmond, playing one of his best games of the season to date, found Aaron Scott who converted a 3-pointer and 1 for the 4 point play, giving SJU a 6-point, 72-66 lead. ESPN had our win probability at 86.2% following that play.

Less than a minute later, Baylor took the lead, and after a Johnnies answer, Baylor took a 3-point lead on a Jeremy Roach 3-pointer. Certainly an omen of what was to come.

The next sequence was chaotic. Jayden Nunn stole the ball from Zuby, and then missed a jumper at the end of the shot clock on the other end. Kadary came down with the rebound, got it out to RJ, who was ultimately fouled. RJ only hit the front end of 2 FTs, Baylor missed a shot down the other end, and Zuby got the rebound only to promptly turn it over on a steal by Johnnies legend Norchad Omier with 0:21 on the clock. As a side note, Omier knocked Zuby to the ground, I have no clue how that wasn’t a foul. 

Simeon fouled Roach with 0:17 on the clock and a 2-point deficit. Surely the sure-handed Roach, a 78% FT shooter in his career, who played in plenty of huge games across 4 years at Duke, would not miss a FT. At the very least, he’d hit the front-end of the 1&1…

…and in what felt at the time like a sign that God is in fact Catholic, and not Baptist, Roach missed the front-end, and Zuby came down with the board, and dumped it to Kadary, who was never letting anyone else take the shot. He went coast to coast, got to the tin for 2 to tie the game, and a VJ Edgecombe corner-3 clanked off the far side rim, meaning we were heading to OT.

First OT was a seesaw affair, Baylor jumping out to a 4-point lead only for SJU to claw it back, only for Baylor to jump to a 5-point lead, only for SJU to claw it back with a sequence at the end that included a double dribble by Robert Wright, III in the face of a pretty ferocious SJU press. On the ensuing possession Kadary once again tried to get to the tin, being the aggressive alpha scorer SJU needs him to be, and was fouled on the floor heading in. Kadary hit both FTs, Roach missed a jumper on the final possession and to double overtime we went.

Double OT was the inverse of the first OT. The Johnnies held 4 & 5-point leads at points. The 5-point lead coming with 2:21 left after a Wilcher 3, assisted by Smith. The next 2 minutes saw just a Baylor FT go on the board, giving the Johnnies a 4-point lead when Smith grabbed a defensive board and was fouled. Smith went to the line with 0:18 on the clock, 2 shots, and a 4-point lead. He converted 1 of 2. After a Baylor timeout, Edgecombe hit a miraculous, well guarded 3 point jumper to make it a 2 point game. After a TO for each team, SJU set its inbound play and got the ball to Zuby, who Baylor promptly fouled, with 4.1 seconds on the clock.

Coming into the game Zuby was 62.5% on the year, and was only 6/10 on the game. Surely though, he was capable of hitting one to at least keep the worst case scenario as a third overtime, instead of the potential for an L. Scott Drew asked for a bullshit review that the officials inexplicably allowed, icing Zuby in the process, VJ furthered this by taking court drying into his own hands and wiping down the lane. Well you all know what happened next.

There is no rest for the weary in an MTE, so the Johnnies had to come back the next day and take care of business versus UVA, and they did so, handedly, as one would expect against a team whose coach quit on them 2 weeks before the season. Of particular note, the fans in attendance let Zuby know we were there and that we had his back. It may have been the first time Zuby had smiled in over 20 hours. I love our fanbase.

Of course, tired as they were from the game with us, and as good as Tennessee is, Baylor got beaten easily Friday, 77-62, damaging us further by making the Baylor loss look worse.

No one had circled the Baylor game as a W when making there preseason projections, so we were basically right on track. Beat Georgia Sunday, a game the Johnnies were favored by 7.5 at open, 5.5 by tip according to ESPN. Unfortunately, nothing went right. Everyone struggled other than Zuby and RJ. Kadary was a no-factor shooting 1-8 from the field, for just 3 points, 4 boards, and 2 assists. Smith was 1-7, 5 boards, 2 assists, and 1 TO that saw him get yanked and spend the rest of the game on the bench (maybe by choice? more below). No sense in going any deeper than that. Nothing went right. We had 15 turnovers. Shot 31.1% from the field, 10.5% from 3, the lone bright spot was 82.1% from the stripe, buoyed by Zuby’s 12-13 performance.

The trip is a disappointment any way you slice. I don’t care how good the opponent is, you cannot blow 18 point leads. You have to find ways to grab boards, make your FTs, and close games. There were too many late TOs and sloppy play to close against a high-quality team like Baylor. 2-1 would have kept SJU in the top-25 most likely. Instead, we’ve fallen out. The buzz of consecutive ranked-weeks falling by the wayside.

Generational Sports Trauma

I’m a firm believer that generational sports trauma is a real thing. And obviously trauma is too strong a word, and I don’t mean to diminish the suffering of folks who have suffered actual real life trauma, by comparing the frivolity of a game to their suffering. I just can’t find a better word.

What is generational sports trauma (let’s call it “GST” for ease)? To me, it’s the irrational fear, anxiety, sensation, whatever you want to call it that is held from all the seasons that have come before. For example, if you think Bills’ fans assholes don’t clench a little bit every time their kicker lines up for a game-winning field goal, you’re kidding yourself. As a Giant fan, I definitely never feel safe with a lead on the Eagles at home knowing that the original Miracle at the Meadowlands (which occurred 7 years before my birth) and the New Miracle at the Meadowlands (2010 DeSean Jackson punt return capping a 28-point 4th quarter from Philly) have occurred.

For St. John’s fans, the generational trauma goes back so very far. The venerable SJU Camel Guy on Twitter keeps a running tally of all of the bad luck and poor decisions dating all the way back to things like the school forcing Lapchick into retirement due to the university’s mandatory retirement age, costing us a little recruit you may have heard of: Lew Alcindor (not a joke or exaggeration, even after Lapchick was hired, SJU remained a 6-to-5 favorite for Alcindor). Through the 80’s, which gave us the apocryphal story of Louie and SJU leaving a recruit from Nigeria named Hakeem Olajuwon at the airport on a snowy NYC day. As the legend goes, Olajuwon had 2 other tickets, one to Houston. He asked a Nigerian baggage handler which climate would be closest to Nigeria, and the rest is history. There was Fran Fraschilla in the late 90’s, the last great coach SJU had, done in by his own dick (literally) and his flirtation with Arizona State. If you believe in curses, the curse of Fraschilla’s Willie may be the closest thing we have to a curse on SJUBB.

That brought us Jarvis, who passed on Darius Miles and Carmelo Anthony, and apparently rubbed Jason Fraser the wrong way during his visit. Jarvis was fired mid-season, leading to the Pittsburgh Incident, and the consequences thereof (thanks Abe Keita!). Calipari wanted the SJU job, apparently, and rumor has it Louie shut that down due to 15-year-old recruiting grudges. Instead we got Norm Roberts, whose name alone should be enough. There was the Marcus LoVett phantom knee injury. Mullin failing to recruit RJ Barrett, who grew up an SJU fan thanks to his father, who played basketball at SJU and his mother who ran track for the school.  And who could forget the string of criminals: a serial killer walk-on, Rysheed Jordan and his attempted robbery charge, and 7’0” 5* commit Zach Brown, who never made it to campus.

In 2019, the last year SJU was in the tournament, we unceremoniously,—but rightfully—showed Chris Mullin the door. Rather than hire Rick Pitino, then on the sidelines in Greece, but still maintaining his residence and membership at nearby Winged Foot, the Johnnies put on an absolute debacle of a search. He wound up at Iona in 2020. They didn’t even look at local option and alumnus Tim Cluess, who would have ran through shit for a chance at the SJU job. Bobby Hurley leveraged us for a raise/extension at ASU. Porter fucking Moser leveraged us for a raise/extension at Loyola. And Ryan Odom, fresh off a hot run with UMBC wouldn’t even meet with SJU. We inexplicably landed on Mike Anderson based on the word of ::checks notes:: Felton Jeffrey Capel the third?! What the fuck were we thinking?!

Even the limited “good” times held their own traumas: DJ Kennedy going down with a knee injury, leaving us with essentially 5 guys for the tournament. In 2015 Chris Obekpa gets drug tested, pops for weed, and gets suspended for the NCAA Tournament, leaving a thin team even thinner, and lacking any real presence in the frontcourt.

Needless to say, we’ve been through a lot. Long-suffering for sure. As an animal lover, I always liken it to a beaten dog. If a dog has been abused, even when it finds itself in new, friendlier environs, it might cower every time someone yells (at the dog or otherwise) or moves or raises their hand in a manner that reminds the rescued dog of the dark days of its prior life.

Common Sense

Of course, when considering the beaten dog, we can all understand that the dog’s reaction is not logical. Instinct? Maybe. A pavlovian response? Most definitely. But there’s no logic there.

When it comes to our sports teams, we have trouble separating emotion from logic. I’m guilty of it, particularly with St. John’s. I think it’s more acute with college teams because the connection frequently runs deeper than mere fandom. When it’s not my team, I find it hilarious. If I had a nickel every time I said “Jets/Mets will always Jets/Mets” I’d be a billionaire. However, in the long term: the 50+ years of (mostly) Jets futility, the 40+ years of (mostly) Mets futility and lifetimes of SJU (mostly) futility, there is no  evidence that there is some supernatural force keeping bad teams bad, and good teams good.

Sure, if you have an owner for the long-term (hello Wilpons and James Dolan!) they can drag the franchise down. But that is an identifiable issue, and only affects the pros. And teams like the Jets and Mets have undergone ownership changes, similarly negating such an explanation, to say nothing of the number of front-offices those teams have churned through during the time since their last championship. However, the human brain will always hunt for the easiest explanations, and so the fan-brain draws a straight line from Bucky fucking Dent through Bill Buckner through Aaron fucking Boone, and blames the curse of the Bambino. From the butt fumble to Aaron Rodgers injury, “the Jets can’t have nice things.”

At St. John’s we’ve had multiple different administrations over these years of misery. That is not the explanation. And so we’re left with the illogic of it all, the chaos of it all. As I’ve also said many times: it’s unfathomable how one program, across so many different decision makers, could make so many bad decisions the last 25 years. If you were trying to tank a program, you couldn’t have done as good a job as the various presidents, ADs and other administrators at SJU over the last 25 years.

But the logic brain dictates “that was then, this is now.” This is not Bobby G, Anton Goff and Lavin/Mullin. This is not Chris Mullin. This is father Shanley, a man known for centering basketball to boost the profile of a private catholic school in the Big East. This is Ed Kull, an incredibly smart and capable AD with deep ties to the school and a desire to win. This is Mike Repole back in the fold, and using his immense resources to help fund the most talented team in at least a decade, probably two and a half.

I’ve even seen comparisons between this year’s team and last year’s team, so let’s dissect those using my favorite metric, Torvik:

T-Ranks at 7 Games:
2024: 59
2025: 11 (15 if you remove preseason projections)

AdjDE
2024: 101.7
2025: 93.0 (removing preseason projections)

AdjOE
2024: 115.1
2025: 117.1 (removing preseason projections)

Best Win
2024: T-Rank #43 Utah (43 at the time, finished 40) with 0 quality OOC opponents ahead of us on the schedule)
2025: T-Rank #46 UNM (sporting an upset of #20 UCLA)

Losses
2024: #46 at the time Michigan (finished 118); #65 at the time Dayton (finished 47)
2025: #21 Baylor in double OT by 1; #43 Georgia by 3

Focus on the efficiency. The more efficient you are, the more likely you are to win games. Right now this team is 8 points better defensively than last year’s squad, and 2 points better than last year’s squad offensively, but also turning a corner. We posted our 3 best offensive efficiency numbers on Torvik against our last 3 opponents before laying a shooting egg vs. Georgia, including a 130.7 ADJOE vs. UNM and 135.3 ADJOE vs. UVa, and a 118.6 vs. Baylor. In purely raw efficiency numbers, we were only 1.5 points less efficient on offense against UNM than Fordham (a 92-60 blowout), i.e. we improved greatly to play at the same offensive level versus #46 UNM as we did against #156 Fordham.

We also still have 1 opportunity left against K-State at home, before the ample opportunities that will be presented in conference play. KState has not been great, but I expect them to improve and be a tournament team. They are loaded with talent and will figure it out, just hopefully not before 12/7. Further, while much is being made about the Big East’s struggles—and no doubt, those struggles are real—the conference will not have 2 atrocious teams weighing the league down this year. Georgetown may actually be just as bad, but we won’t have a 2024 DePaul situation this year (297th).

Of course the other point here is that this team is not static, we saw how greatly the team improved over the course of last season, when we finished 15th in Torvik. There is obviously less room to improve this year, but rounding up one, we went from 60th after 7 games to 15th, a 75% gain. A 75% gain again would have us in the top-5. While that’s probably too much to ask, the point remains: this team will continue to improve, and will play its best basketball in March.

Finally, look at the games we lost this year:

Baylor - preseason T7 in championship odds. A legit Final Four contender headed by a national championship winning coach. A game we lost by 1 point in double OT.

Georgia - A likely tournament team, in a game we shot 31.1/10.5…yes, not a typo, 10.5 from deep. If you merely shoot 3/19 (15.7%) from deep and 20/61 (32.7%) from 2, still well below our season averages of 48.3% and 35.7% (averages that are dragged down by this abysmal performance) and we win the game. Some of it was no doubt Georgia’s defense, but we had plenty of make-able shots we missed.

In other words, if you let your logic brain win out, there is no reason to panic. It took an atrocious shooting performance from us for Georgia to even beat us by 1 point. It is disappointing, and at the end of the day you need results, but this is far, far, far from the same ol’ Johnnies.

And even if you are one to believe in the supernatural. That there’s some energy/bad vibe/curse hanging over this program, preventing even the legendary Rick Pitino from saving us, shouldn’t you also believe that there’s supernatural power in positive thinking? In a fan base that looks, and talks, and acts like it’s got a dominant team, and will persevere despite the setbacks?

I know I do.

The Kyle Neptune Problem

Frankly, my heart feels for Kyle Neptune. The man has been dealt a shit hand. However, he’s also done himself no favors. It feels like time for ‘nova to move on from Kyle Neptune. The questions are “when?” and “how?”

In the sympathy category, Neptune was brought in very late in the cycle his first year, being hired on April 20, 2022, and Jay Wright, for all his great success, did not leave much of an NIL infrastructure behind for Neptune to work with, which makes sense when you consider that NIL is part of the reason Jay retired in the first place.

When he was hired, the portal had already been open for weeks. Some kids had even committed to new schools already. He didn’t pull a single player from the portal, and was left to roll with what was on the roster, and the incoming freshmen class that he managed to hold together (no doubt with an assist from Wright).

Additionally, the man has to toil in the incredibly long shadow of Jay Wright, the greatest coach in program history, and one of the greatest coaches of all-time.

Year 1 - Give the Man a Pass!

While that might not seem great, it was a team coming off a Final Four, returning Justin Moore, Eric Dixon, Jermaine Samuels, Caleb Daniels, Jordan Longino, and Brandon Slater. To that core Neptune kept together a freshmen class ranked 19th in the country per 247, containing future NBA player Cam Whitmore (11), Mark Armstrong (62), and Brendan Hausen (136). Hausen was not ready to contribute meaningfully as a freshman, and frankly neither was Armstrong. Unfortunately for Neptune, when Moore went down for the season 13 games in, Armstrong was pressed into service as the lead guard. It did not go well, averaging 22 MPG, 1.2 assists, a 1-to-1 assist to turnover ratio, and 5.7 ppg.

Nova struggled Neptune’s first year, but still finished 17-17 (10-10), 6th in the Big East. It was a “pass” year for Neptune between the late start and the Moore injury, a lackluster performance could be forgiven, even despite bad losses to Temple and Portland when at full strength early in the year.

Neptune channeling the frustrations of Kevin McCallister all ‘nova nation during last year’s roller coaster season.

Year 2 - Locked and Loaded and Strapped In for the Roller Coaster

What followed that summer was a portal spending spree. Villanova spent the season getting its NIL in-order, and Neptune took full advantage come April. He brought in big, athletic guard TJ Bamba from Wazzou, he brought in Tyler Burton from Richmond—one of the most sought after players in the portal, Hakim Hart—a proven guard from Maryland, and most-puzzlingly Lance Ware—a C/F who could barely get off the floor at Kentucky in 3 seasons.

On paper, the team looked ready to head back to the NCAAT. There was optimism on the main line. Nova wasted no time taking a huge steamy dump all over said optimism. A week into the season they lost by 4 to Penn in the Palestra. However, they followed that up with 4 straight wins against power conference opponents in the top 80 of KenPom, en route to winning the Battle 4 Atlantis—vs. Maryland (62), Texas Tech (31), UNC (9), and Memphis (76). It looked like the Penn game was a distant memory. A small bump on the road to the promised land.

The flight home from Atlantis must have taken a wrong turn somewhere along the way. Five days after beating Memphis to win the Battle, Villanova dropped a home game at the Finn to the other SJU (99) 78-65. The loss guaranteed Villanova would be in the 5th/6th place game versus Drexel (126) in the Big5. Villanova also lost to Drexel on ‘nova’s secondary home floor, the Wells Fargo Center (a game that inexplicably is a “neutral” site in the eyes of the NCAA, despite SJU’s BET games being counted as “home” games by the NCAA. Make it make sense).

At that point the resume damage was done, and it would take a herculean effort in conference play to get back. But the roller coaster had a couple more bumps. Nova beat a bad UCLA squad at home to round out their OOC schedule. They followed that up by opening Big East play with an overtime victory over Creighton (11) in Omaha, once again inspiring hope—this time that ‘nova could pull off the massive conference season it needed to get back to the tournament. The followed-up with a routine road victory over DePaul (304) and a 1-point home victory over Xavier (56).

Nova proceeded to lose 7 of its next 9, the lone wins being vs. DePaul and vs. Providence (59), both at home. They did come within a point of a home victory over UConn, but followed that up by getting humiliated by 20 points in MSG vs. St. John’s. They also started the 7-of-9 streak with an embarrassing loss at home to St. John’s, a 10-pt L that didn’t feel remotely that close (I would know, I was there), with St. John’s keeping ‘nova at bay the entire game, goign wire-to-wire.

And THAT 7-of-9 stretch was all she wrote wrote. At 12-11 (5-7) ‘nova needed to win out or win the BET to make the dance. Neither of which occurred.

Player Regression: A Theme That Generates Depression

Who is that masked man?! Certainly not the TJ Bamba Wazzou and Oregon Ducks fans know!

This background is important to set the stage, but also to tell the story of one of the worst aspects of Neptune’s tenure: player regression. It has been seen almost across the board with transfers. Tyler Burton went from 19 ppg to 7.5, and eFG from 50.9% to 48.5%. The A10 to the Big East is a jump, no doubt, but he still should’ve averaged double digits.

TJ Bamba went from 15.8 ppg to 10, but his eFG actually improved, bringing him from 49.6% to 51.5%, the problem? His usage dropped off from 27.5% at Wazzou to 20.7%, he played 32.2 mpg at Wazzou to 28 on the Main Line, and he went from 12.6 FGA at Wazzou to 8 at ‘nova. Watching the Wildcats last year I found myself flabbergasted that they were not using TJ Bamba—a proven high major scoring threat—more than they were. And Bamba is right back at it this year, starting all 3 games for the Oregon Ducks, and posting 12 ppg in just 24.7 mpg, with a slightly improved 52% eFG.

Hakim Hart, another proven high major player, suffered a similar fate, going from 32 mpg to 22 mpg from Maryland to ‘nova, and going from 11.4 ppg to 6.3 ppg.

The odd thing is, this only seems to happen to transfers. Dixon took a jump in year 1 of Neptune, stayed flat year 2, and looks like the best version of himself so far in this young season. Before his injury, Justin Moore looked like his old self for 13 games under Neptune. Caleb Daniels improved in year 1 of Neptune. Brandon Slater was basically the same under Neptune. And Jordan Longino suddenly seems to be closer to what ‘nova fans thought they were getting this season than he was the previous 3 years.

While it might be expected that guys who came up for a year or 2 under Jay might have a leg up on developing, it held true for the 2 freshmen that only played for Neptune as well. Mark Armstrong progressed slightly, before bouncing for the G-League. Brendan Hausen improved slightly year 1 to year 2 before bouncing for K-State where he’s averaging 19.5 ppg through 3 games on 55.6% from deep. Unsustainable? Sure. But clearly Hausen is a mixed bag in that he both progressed a bit under Neptune, but Neptune never unlocked his full potential.

This dichotomy is very interesting in that there were certainly some rumblings that Neptune didn’t have as much control over the transfer process as you’d have expected, with NIL funders and boosters driving the bus. That would explain the difference between the team on paper and the middling results.

It will be interesting to see what happens with this years less-talented transfer class. Can Kyle coach them up, or will we see more regression? Is this less-heralded transfer class a better fit for Neptune than last year’s high-caliber class? Early returns are not promising.

However, if by some miracle Kyle Neptune is retained, or if he finds another job at a lower level, it might be worth considering a modified Shaka Smart approach. I think “no transfers ever” is a bit extreme, but if Neptune focuses on bringing in and developing top high school recruits, and supplements with one or 2 transfer that fit the roster, it’s possible he can improve his results. Of course, being retained or getting another job are HUGE “ifs” for Neptune.

Year 3 - Cue The Doors: “ This is the End”?

This is the end
Beautiful friend
This is the end
My only friend, the end

It certainly feels like the end and we’re only 4 games in. The Wildcats started out with a shaky win over Lafayette by 12, a deficit that belies the nip-and-tuck nature of this game, which was a 1-point battle at halftime, and was only a 6 point game with 5:30 to play.

Neptune’s squad followed that up with a home loss to Columbia by 10 in the Finn. Columbia felt like they got any look they wanted, and hung 90 on Nova. Two games later, ‘nova went on the road across town and lost to the other SJU by 7, practically guaranteeing that ‘nova will not win the Big5.

In Jay Wright’s tenure Villanova won at least a share of the Big5 title in the old round robin format 13 of the 18 seasons (11 outright) it was contested (canceled in 2020-21 for COVID), including 5 straight from 2013 through 2017, and 7 of his last 8. Neptune won a share of the Big 5 his first season, and finished 6th in the Big5 last season. He likely will not win again this season.

In a vacuum, neither losing to no. 158 in KenPom nor no. 103 is unforgivable. But we do not exist in vacuums, we exist in the context of all that has come before. In this case, it’s a 3-5 record in Big 5 games. It’s losing to 2 inferior opponents in 3 games. It’s not making a tournament his first 2 seasons. It’s all of the following losses since taking over:

• at Temple (120)

• Portland (N) (157)

• at DePaul (135)

• at Buttler (119)

• at Penn (213)

• vs. the other SJU (99)

• vs. Drexel (126)

• vs. Columbia (158)

• vs. the other SJU, again (103)

You simply cannot lose that many bad games as a high major team in a 3-year span.

It also feels like, from the outside, NIL donors pulled back some of their NIL dollars this past off-season, given how little high-level talent ‘nova brought in, and the fact that half of it came from their own backyard.

Wooga Poplar is the only proven high-major player on this roster. Jhamir Brickus is an undersized PG from La Salle. He can definitely ball, but his defense leaves much to be desired (as does Poplar’s for that matter). Tyler Perkins also moved from the city out to the main line suburbs, transferring from Penn to ‘nova. Perkins played forward at Penn, but is being asked to play as a 2-guard. He definitely has the shot for it, but might not be ready to play at this level or defend Big East guards.

To make matters worse, Neptune seems to be saying all the wrong things.

What Went Wrong?

On top of the lack of talent this season (a new problem, as the last 2 rosters were plenty talented), I think it’s clear Kyle was simply not ready for a high major coaching gig. There’s always the instinct to keep things “in-house” at successful programs, but the Jay Wright coaching tree is not very strong, and Neptune was one of the only coaches in the family that could credibly be considered. Pat Chambers had failed out at Penn State, Speedy Claxton may have been a better hire, but I don’t think he was fully viewed as “in the family,” since he never played or coached at ‘nova. Tom Pecora was off in the wilderness as Quinnipiac’s assistant head coach after failing at Fordham. Urgo had yet to be a head coach. So that really left Kyle as the only possible “in-house” candidate. Further complicating matters was that Jay Wright screwed ‘nova with is late resignation, leaving limited outside options, and certainly none with a marquee name.

The look says it all…

At the time, Kyle’s resume consisted of being Jay’s assistant and one season at Fordham where he took them from laughingstock A10 basement dweller with KenPom’s of 292, 260, 245, and 310 in the 4 years before he arrived, to a respectable middle-of-the-pack A10 side with a KenPom of 173. Not an amazing turnaround by any stretch, but it was still a very nice coaching job by Neptune. The calling card of that Fordham team was its defense, ranking 41st in KenPom AdjD. The offense was abysmal, clocking in at 321st. At ‘nova his teams have been all over, currently ranking 93 in AdjD after finishing 13th last season, and the AdjO ranks 37 currently. Last year the offense ranked 87th. 

On the offensive end turnovers have been killer, with ‘nova sporting a 18.4% TO%, good for 196th in the country, and almost as bad as Neptune’s 139th ranked offense, which came in at 18.9%. On the defensive end, this year’s team is allowing opponents to shoot 35.4% from 3, 238th in the country, while allowing opponents to shoot 43% of their shots from deep. They also allow teams to really work the ball around, as they’re loathe to press or trap ball handlers in the half court, allowing an assist percentage of 65%, 327th in the nation. Similarly, they’re just 259th in the country in TO% defense for much the same reason.

One last note, Jay Wright’s later teams were notoriously slow. They kept the game manageable, using a slow pace, IQ, and beautiful, position-less basketball to frequently make up for talent deficits. It became such a thing that it’s hard to remember his teams ever playing differently. The slow pace allowed the IQ and coaching to shine through as his players patiently broke down a defense, hunting for a good shot.

Jay Wright teams ranked slower than 200th in KenPom AdjTempo won 1 of his 2 national championships, made another F4, another S16, another tournament berth, and had ‘nova poised to do damage as a 2/3 seed in 2020 before the world shut down. However, Jay knew how to play to his personnel. In 2017-18 Jay won his 2nd national championship with the number 1 offense in the country, and the played at the 150th tempo in the country. That was bar none Jay’s most talented roster, featuring future NBA stars Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges, as well as short-lived NBA players and current European pros Omari Spellman and Eric Paschall, European pro Phil Booth and of course NBA player, and the sixth man of ‘nova’s championship team, the Big Ragu himself, Donte Divincenzo (side note, Donte was 6 years old growing up in Newark, Delaware when I was a freshman in college there. Fuck I’m old.).

In other words, that a fuck ton of talent. And because there was so much talent, Jay let the reins go loose a bit, allowing his talent to play a little faster, but under control, allowing the pure unadulterated talent of that roster carry the day.

On the flip side, Kyle’s Fordham team played at the 139th pace in the country, but again, the offense was atrocious. Whether that offense scared Neptune, or whether he got back to Villanova and thought “I gotta do it Jay’s way,” all 3 of his teams at ‘nova have ranked sub-300 in tempo. That is a snails pace. That is the slowest Tony Bennett (RIP) Virginia teams. When he had as much talent has he had the first two years, it might have behooved him to quicken the pace just a little bit, and allow his offensive studs to go to work. Slow games make it easy for plucky underdogs to swing upsets. If I only have to be better than you across 100 possessions, that’s a much smaller sample size, and will be more prone to variance than 120 possessions or 140 possessions (2 average paced teams) or 160 possessions.

Can you play slow and be successful? Of course, Jay Wright and Tony Bennett did it to great success. But they both had highly experienced teams. Jay’s first national championship team started 4 juniors who had played all 3 years at ‘nova (a different era). Tony Bennet’s national championship team was eerily similar, with a rotation that included 1 senior, 4 juniors, 2 sophomores and 1 freshman. All but 1 of the upperclassmen was a transfer, the rest played multiple years under Bennet.

In the transfer portal age, when you have a talented roster, it is probably best to play the numbers, and at least play to an average pace. If a team is going to upset you, at least make them prove it over a larger sample size. Playing slow feeds right into Cinderella’s hands.

Given the shortcomings with his ‘nova squad, and the fact that he seems to just be trying to emulate Jay Wright instead of putting his own coaching stamp on the team, Kyle Neptune could have used a few more years at Fordham to hone his craft and develop his own style of play. Instead, Jay and ‘nova threw him out of the frying pan and into the fire, giving him a promotion he was not ready for. He was almost set up to fail. Rather than try to carve out his style as a coach, he reverted to the familiar “Nova Way,” and it has been an abject failure.

Many people called for Neptune’s head last season. Frankly, I was one of them (though “call” probably too much, since I really had no dog in the fight, but I felt they should’ve fired him). Four games into 2024-25, and it is clear that those who called for Kyle’s head were right. He should have been let go.

When? and How? and Who?

This is the million dollar question. Personally, I am of the belief that firing an abysmal coach mid-season is the correct move. MAYBE you can salvage something a la Ohio State with Jake Diebler last year, but at the very least you help prevent apathy in the fan base by send the clear, unwavering message that “we hear you, this is unacceptable and we’re not going to tolerate it,” and you give yourself all the time in the world to fully evaluate potential hires, initiate back channels, and develop a clear strategy for the coaching search in March. So if it were me, I’d fire him yesterday. But certainly Saturday at the latest, after they lose to Bennett-less UVa in Baltimore on Friday.

Of course it’s not me, in fact it’s technically no body at this time, as Villanova doesn’t have an athletic director at the moment, not even on an interim basis. Whether the president of the university knows, cares, or is likely to do anything about it mid-season is a question better directed to ‘nova folks who know the inner workings of the school better than I do. However, I see no reason why the president couldn’t step in and make the call. This season has already been embarrassing to the public face of your university (the program, not Neptune), and it may only get worse. Firing Neptune at least stops the damage to the brand, as everyone will expect an embarrassment with an interim head coach.

Kyle Neptune and future Villanova Interim Head Coach Jerold Taylor Wright, Jr. in happier times.

Alternatively, they don’t even have to go the usual route and promote an assistant to head coach…I know a certain two-time national championship winning coach who is sitting at home most days, except the handful of days each month he’s broadcasting. That’s right…”interim head coach Jay Wright!”

I know, it sounds crazy, but as I said above, the last 2 seasons one couldn’t help but wonder “what if Jay had this team?” That question feels less poignant with this less talented roster, but I still firmly believe that if you gave Jay the reins tomorrow, he could at least make the NCAAT. Does Jay say yes? Almost certainly not, but it’d be worth a call if you’re the decision maker at ‘nova.

Realistically, Villanova/Vanillanova/VillaNoFun is a small ‘c’ conservative institution, without an athletic director, who has their first black head coach on the sidelines. Firing him 4-5 games into the season would be a bad look on many levels, and is highly unlikely. There’s probably a slightly better chance that he gets fired mid-season, but I’d still put the odds pretty low.

The most likely outcome is a March firing following the BET. I’m not sure who would be on that short list. I would expect you absolutely have to go outside the family at this point. As well-regarded as Urgo is, he’s yet to prove anything, and just hiring another middling Fordham coach might cause a certain Twitter user to sue the university to get his parents’ past 1842 Day donations back...and also cause the rest of the fan base to revolt. The one name I saw floated by Chris—formerly of the Full40 podcast—was Speedy Claxton. Claxton’s Flying Dutchmen defeated Seton Hall last night, and as Chris pointed out, Speedy might be sufficiently “in the family,” but also far enough removed from ‘nova that he brings a fresh perspective and fresh ideas to the main line. I’ll be honest, I was not that high on Speedy initially, but he had won me over by the end of his 2nd year. All he does is win and recruit above his head at Hofstra.

In any event, unfortunately for my ‘nova friends, I think things will get a whole lot worse before they get better. Godspeed.

BIG EAST TWITTER COGNOSCENTI POLL

So I had an idea, we’ll see how this goes. A weekly Big East AP-style poll comprised of known and trusted Big East fan accounts, bloggers, podcasters, etc. We got 32 responses, but a certain Butler fan who shall remain nameless misunderstood the assignment, so I was unfortunately forced to toss his ballot, leaving 31. Having Villanova as #1 was a dead giveaway you did not understand what was happening haha.

To keep it from being a popularity contest, and in line with the official Big East Coach’s preseason poll, you could not vote for your own team. However, down the bottom there’s a “fan pulse” section for each team, where I asked each voter for the fan pulse of their team. Additionally, we voted for Big East Player of the Week, with the results below. The poll was scored 10 points for a first place vote, 9 for a 2nd, etc. on down to 1 point for 10th.

So without further adieu, here are the results of the Twitter Cognoscenti Poll, parens are first place votes, after the hyphen is total points:

1. UConn (25) - 276

2. Marquette (1) - 229

3. Creighton (3) - 226

4. St. John’s (1) - 180

5. Xavier - 147

6. Providence - 130

7. DePaul (1) - 90

8. Georgetown - 78

9. Villanova - 66

10. Butler - 64

11. Seton Hall - 54

Given the structure of the poll, we’ll never have a truly unanimous number 1, as that team’s fans would have to vote for someone else, but even still, UConn fell 3 votes short of first place. Those votes went to Creighton, Marquette, and…DePaul?! I’ll allow it!

Player of the Week:

Ryan Kalkbrenner (1st) - 20/32 votes

The man, the myth, the legend: Cockbrenner

Not even remotely shocking to see Cockbrenner win Player of the Week from our panel. The man dropped a double double on UTRGV. And you might say, so what? It’s UTRGV…well if you haven’t heard, this wasn’t just any double-double…Cockbrenner dropped 49 points on UTRGV on 20/22 shooting…yes 91% shooting. He was 2/2 from deep, 7/8 from the stripe. He had 11 boards, and added 3 blocks for good measure. He followed that up with a “mediocre” performance, dropping 24 & 7, with 3 blocks once again versus FDU. He was once again a perfect 1/1 from deep, and a perfect 5/5 from the stripe. 9/10 from the field to shoot 90% once again. For those keeping score at home, Cockbrenner’s average this week was:

36 .5/8.5/1.5 and 3 blocks per game, 0.5 fouls per game, shooting 90.6/100/92.3.

There was a decent chance Cockbrenner could’ve crossed the 40-pt threshold again in the FDU game, but given it was non-competitive, he only played 23 minutes (vs. 36 in the UTRGV game).

Don’t ask Cockbrenner how he does it. You don’t wanna know.

Never mind that UTRGV starts a 6’8” freshman from Mongolia at center, and spells him wit h a 6’9” Australian sophomore that is listed as a forward, not a center. Or that FDU has 1 player over 6’7”, and he only played 7 minutes…do not worry about that. Do not ask how Cockbrenner does what he does. Do not ask why every ref in America is afraid to call fouls against Cockbrenner. Pay no attention to the big man behind the curtain, that is none your concern.

This doofy looking mofo?!

Others receiving votes (total): Alex Karaban (3); Jacob Meyer (2); RJ Luis (2); Jerome Hunter (1); Kam Jones (1); idk (1); “Gus Bus” I assume Gus Yalden? lol (1)

Fan Pulse:
(average score of responses by fans of that team 1-10 scale)

UConn - 8

Marq - 8.5

Creighton - 6.5

St. John’s - 8.5

Xavier - 6

Providence - 5.5

Depaul - 6

Georgetown - 7

Villanova - 3

Butler - 2

Seton Hall - 1

A lot of confidence from 3 of the top-4 teams in the poll. Surprisingly tepid pulse from Creighton. Georgetown fans irrationally confident after beating ::checks notes:: Lehigh by 8 and Fairfield by 12…go off Hoya fans. Been awhile since you could feel this good about your team!

We’ll bring this to you weekly on Mondays, as my schedule permits. But hopefully every week this season. We may try and curate the list a little more, try to get something closer to equal participation by the fanbases, maybe 5 folks per fan base. If you’re interested and you have an account with more than 2,500 followers, a podcast, or a blog of your own, reach out and let me know your interest.

Better Know a Team: Villanova

Last Year’s Record: 18-16 (10-10)

Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 41 (31)
KenPom: 20 (51)

‘Nova needs less facepalming and better coaching from this man.

Coach: Kyle Neptune, 3rd Season
Traditionally, college basketball coaches got 4 years before the seat got hot, just enough time for a recruiting class to go through a full cycle. Even in the “one-and-done” era, since the 2006 rule change prohibited the top players from going straight outta HS to the NBA, most players would stay and develop for 2-4 years. In the year of our lord 2024, that traditional cycle has been flipped on its head. With the NCAA instituting the transfer portal, allowing 1 free transfer and now unlimited free transfers, the NIL boom and the bonus COVID year, the last few years made it easier than ever to turn a team around quickly. We saw it at places like ISU and KSU and Alabama, where coaches TJ Otzelberger, Jerome “cupcake lover” Tang and Nate “Making ‘bama a Basketball School” Oats promptly turned their teams around, and in the case of Oats and Otzelberger, turned their teams into perennial top-15 programs.

And then there’s Kyle Neptune. Kyle took over a team coming off a Final Four berth. Of course that team lost Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels, as well as some role players and saw Justin Moore miss most of Neptune’s first year with injury. However, in Year 1 it’s undeniable that Neptune was left with a solid roster, and of course he was well-educated in the ways of Jay, serving under him as an assistant. In year 1 he returned Eric Dixon, Caleb Daniels (14 ppg that season), Brandon Slater, Justin Moore, Jordan Longino, and benefited from Jay Wright’s recruitment of Cam Whitmore and Mark Armstrong. That team went 17-17 (10-10), and Neptune mostly got a pass. The Moore injury left him without a real PG, and Jay’s late retirement left Neptune behind the 8-ball in the portal. Additionally, Nova’s NIL was not yet up to snuff. But even as Neptune got some grace from the fanbase, one couldn’t help but wonder “would Jay have made the tournament this year?”

Year 2 saw the return of Justine Moore. Also returning were Eric Dixon, Brendan Hausen, and Jordan Longino. Nova upped its NIL game, and Neptune got with the times and hit the portal…hard. Villanova snagged the #10 player in the portal per 247 Sports, Tyler Burton. They also added the #28 transfer, big athletic guard TJ Bamba, and wing man Hakim Hart, the #29 ranked transfer in 2023. They also added Lance Ware…

That was good for the 5th ranked transfer class in the country per 247 Sports. Expectations were high on the main line. Certainly on paper last season’s ‘nova squad was a tournament team. The coaches picked them 4th in the league (those same coaches also picked UConn 3rd, and we know how that turned out). But it wasn’t meant to be. The highly-touted newcomers failed to integrate into the roster, with only Bamba scoring double-digits (10.8 ppg), Justin Moore was not the old Justin Moore, and Mark Armstrong struggled at the point. About the only player who lived up to expectations was steady Eddie, Eric Dixon. The once proud program limped to an 18-16 (10-10) record, reaching rock bottom early in the year, going 0-3 vs. Penn, the other SJU and Drexel to finish 6th in the Philly Big 5—a statement that will never not be funny. Years from now we can have a college basketball/Big East bar trivia night and one of the questions should absolutely be “following the expansion to 6 teams, what was the first school to finish 6th in the Philly Big 5?”

However, the season was not without some high points. Villanova looked like the team we all thought they were in the Battle 4 Atlantis, knocking off Texas Tech, UNC and Memphis en route to winning the tournament. They won the ugliest game of basketball ever played in the shot clock era over Maryland at the Finn, 57-40(!). Peanut Chews sponsored that game for some reason, and I hope they didn’t pay too much. They damn near beat Kansas State in the Little Apple, forcing overtime and losing by 1 in a see-saw battle, they beat UCLA by 9 at Wells Fargo, beat Creighton in OT at the CHI Health Center in Omaha, and they got an always-tough road win at the Dunk vs. Providence (it’ll always be the Dunk to me goddamnit)

But there were plenty of embarrassments as well, such as losing at the Finn vs. St. John’s, getting run off the floor at MSG by SJU, losing in double OT to a bottom-dwelling Butler team, barely beating 3-29 DePaul in the BET, and ultimately getting bounced in the first round of the NIT by VCU. Such were the depths of this humiliation that there were rumblings that Neptune should be fired among the fan base, with some going as far as to threaten that their parents would not donate on the next 1842 day, forever begging the question what IS life, yo?

Of course Neptune wasn’t fired, it didn’t seem like the school ever gave serious consideration to that, and Neptune headed back to the portal to restock his squad once again. But in year two it really couldn’t be denied: Jay would’ve had that team in the tournament easily, and maybe even made some noise in March. All of that background is simply to say this is a big year for Kyle. In this day and age 4 years is no longer a guarantee, especially not at a proud program like Villanova. For Villanova, this season is all about Kyle Neptune. He once again has enough talent to return to the tournament, its time he delivers.

Rotation:

PG: Jhamir Brickus, (Gr.) “ 5’11” ” (OK buddy!) 188 lbs.
SG: Wooga Poplar, (Sr.) 6’5” 197 lbs.
SF: Jordan Longino, (Sr.) 6’5” 215 lbs.
PF: Eric Dixon, (Gr.) 6’8” 265 lbs.
C: Enoch Boakye, (Sr.) 6’11” 255 lbs.

Bench:
Tyler Perkins, (So.), 6’4” 212 lbs. (G)
Josiah Moseley, (Fr.) 6’6” 205 lbs. (F)
Nnanna Njoku, (R-Jr.) 6’9” 245 lbs. (C)
Kris Parker, (R-Fr.) 6’9” 201 lbs. (G/F)
Matthew Hodge, (Fr.) 6’8” 220 lbs. (F)
Malcolm Thomas, (Fr.) 6’8” 218 lbs. (F)
Jordann Dumont (R-Fr.) 6’8” 220 lbs. (F)
Sasha Gavalyugov, (Fr) 6’2” 175 lbs (G)

Big Non-Conference Games:

11/12, 5pm, CBS Sports Network - at the other SJU
11/19, 7pm, Peacock - vs. UPenn (at the Finn)
12/7, TBD, TBD - Big Five Classic vs. Drexel, La Salle or Temple

That’s it. Villanova just needs to avoid coming in 6th in the Big 5 again, for the good of the conference.

Ok, ok, they also have:
11/15, 5pm, TBD - vs. UVa (N) - a game that has lost some luster following Tony Bennett’s shock retirement.
11/24, 1pm, ESPN - vs. Maryland (N) - Willard back in the Rock!
12/3, 6:30pm, FS1 - vs. Cincinnati (BIG East-Big12 Battle)

All in all a very, very soft schedule, leaving ‘nova little margin for error in the non-conference. Even looking backwards through the lens of “well they expected UVa to be good,” that’s still only 3 high majors, one of which is mediocre, at best.

What’s Old: Eric Dixon. Literally. Guy is so old he’s chasing early bird specials at the local Applebee’s. Of course, despite his advanced age, Dixon remains a stellar collegiate ball player, making up for his lack of size and lack of athleticism with crafty post moves and precision shooting.

He’s been one of the best players in the conference the last 2 years. In that span he averaged 31.1 minutes across 68 games, starting all of them, posting 16/6.6/1.5 on 47.8/35.9/82.9, for an eFG of 54%. He adds solid defense with a D-Rating of 100.9 and a DBPM of 1.7. Barring catastrophe, he’s a lock to be First Team All Big East, as he was voted preseason, and if ‘nova plays better than it has the last 2 seasons, he’s a dark horse for Big East Player of the Year. The fact that Dixon is a dark horse for conference player of the year is less about his talents than it is about the insane depth of high end talent in the league.

Joining Dixon in the backcourt, the only other holdover from the Jay Wright roster left on the main line (and frankly, it’s amazing there’s still 2 holdovers 3 seasons removed from Jay’s tenure) is senior Jordan Longino. Longino is a local product out of Germantown Academy. He was a 4* recruit, ranked 53 in the 247 Composite in the class of 2021. I usually don’t mention the high school pedigree of experienced college players, but in this case it’s worth reference because Longino has never quite lived up to that billing. He was lightly used his freshman year, but the last two seasons he’s played 54 games, notching 13 starts, posting 5.8/2.3/1.3 on 40.4/28.7/79.2. It’s worth noting his shooting did improve to 32.5% from deep and 83.3% from the stripe.

While several of the guys ahead of him in the rotation last year failed, fans certainly had loftier expectations for Longino, and his inability to step up exacerbated Villanova’s problems last season. Part of his problem is that he settles for perimeter shots too often, taking 48.1% of his FGA from deep last year per CBB Analytics, including 32.9% in above the break 3’s, on which he shot only 29.6%. He was an impressive 40% on corner 3’s, but he attempted less than 1 per game, 15.2% of his total shot attempts. His best bet is getting into the paint, where he shoots 52.9%, 90th percentile, but again only took 10.4% of his shots from that range. His at the rim FG% was 54%, only the 35th percentile. In other words, his best bet is to slash or cut and pull up for a mid-range in the paint, or even outside the paint, where he shoots 40%, 69th percentile. Villanova is going to need Longino to step up this year if they are to return to the tournament.

The last two returners are Nnanna Njoku and Jordann Dumont. Across 3 seasons on the main line Njoku has played in 24 games, averaging 3.6 mpg, and 0.8 ppg. He may carve out a small role this year, but let’s just move on.

Dumont was a 0* recruit in the class of 2023. It is unlikely he’ll be a contributor this year.

THAT’s the “5 foot, 11 inch” Brickus giving up “1 inch” to the 6-foot tall Foster Loyer

What’s New: Graduate Point Guard Jhamir Brickus makes the move from Philadelphia—La Salle to be exact—to suburbs to be the starting point guard for the Wildcats. Brickus had a breakout season for La Salle starting 33 games, playing 36.6 mpg, and posting 13.9/3.5/4.8, shooting 43.3/40/85.7. That free throw shooting certainly fits the ‘nova mold, and 40% from deep fits anyone’s mold, particularly at a decent 4.5 3-pt attempts per game. Add in almost 5 APG, and it’s clear to see why ‘nova is high on Brickus orchestrating this offense. No Villanova player has put up 4+ assists per game since Collin Gillespie put up 4.6 in 2020-21. The last 2 season’s ‘nova has sorely lacked a floor general. The experienced Brickus gives them just that.

Not Jhamir Brickus, but maybe ‘nova should retire the powder blue jerseys this year…

The downside? Clearly his defense. Let’s start with the physical limitations, Brickus is listed at a VERY generous 5’11”, but I heard the hosts of a prominent ‘nova podcast recently joking that he was really 5’8”. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. He’s also not the thickest or strongest looking guard. Just running down the list of team’s starting guards, the only other guards 6’ or less is 5’10” Sean Jones, who may or may not make it back from injury this season and shares the back court with 3 dudes 6’3” or taller, the 6’0” Deivon Smith, who shares a back court with guys that are 6’6”, 6’4”, & 6’4”, and Xavier PG tandem Dayvion McKnight and Trey Green who both come in at 6’0”.

Advanced metrics do not paint a better picture. With Brickus on the court, La So all of that leaves Villanova with some defensive shortcomings in the back court. He posted a 111.4 D-Rating last season, and is a career 109.3, his DBPM was -.4 last season, and -.03 for his career, including 3 straight negative DBPM figures. With Brickus off the floor, LaSalle posted a defense rating of 101.9, compared to 111.5 with Brickus on the floor. Given the size and quality of the guards in the Big East versus the A-10, Villanova will have to scheme a defense to mask some of Brickus’ deficiencies. At the very least the esteemed Ken Pomeroy believes in the Villanova defense, ranking the Wildcats the 14th best defense in the country, and even Torvik, who is not quite as high on Villanova as KenPom has the ‘cats clocking in as the 30th best defense preseason. Even in last year’s disappointing campaign Villanova’s defense was solid, ranking 10th in Torvik’s ADJDE and 13th in KenPom’s AdjD. Going back to his year at Fordham, his defense ranked 41st. Obviously those teams were not without their defensive flaws, so it’s entirely possible the much-maligned Neptune coaches his way around Brickus’ defensive limitations.

Brickus is joined in a surprisingly thin backcourt by Miami (Fl) transfer, Senior Wooga Poplar, 247 Sports’ 17th ranked transfer this year. On top of being a first-team member of any All-Name Team, Poplar is a proven commodity at the high major level, playing in and starting 29 games last season for Jim Larranaga’s disappointing Hurricanes squad, posting 13.1/4.8/2.1 on 42.6/38.5/86.4 shooting in 31 mpg. He was also a starter 2 years ago during Miami’s Final Four run, posting 8.4/3.3/1.5 in 23.5 minutes, on 47/37.5/86.7. His career eFG is 52.7%. Poplar’s size, strength and length also give him a pretty high floor on the defensive end, and he’s a really good on-ball defender. But the real headline here is his offense. Poplar projects to be ‘nova’s second leading scorer behind Eric Dixon. When you look for a “big 3” of scorers, it’s quite possible the Wildcats have theirs in Brickus, Poplar and Dixon.

As mentioned, the ‘nova backcourt is surprisingly thin, and is rounded out by sophomore transfer Tyler Perkins and Bulgarian freshman Aleksander Gavalyugov. Like his backcourt mate Brickus, Perkins joins the Wildcats from a fellow Big 5 school, in this case UPenn. Perkins was excellent as a freshman for the Quakers, and in most years could’ve been the Ivy League Rookie of the year had it not been for now-Georgetown guard Malik Mack’s excellent year at Harvard. Perkins posted 13.7/5.3/1.9 on 39.1/34.7/76.5, for an eFG of 46.6% in 29.8 mpg. However, as we saw last year at St. John’s, even experienced Ivy Legue ballers can struggle to make the jump to the BIG East. It took Jordan Dingle and Chris Ledlum 2/3rds of a season to really hit their stride. While Perkins will definitely have a role in the backcourt this season, I don’t think I would expect a high-level of production from him. However, he is a very nice building block piece for the next 2 seasons.

Gavalyugov is a 6’2” freshman out of Bulgaria. An NBA Gloval Academy product, Gavalyugov his a really good shooter, and comes in with substantial U18 Eurobasket experience. He’s also very crafty in the lane, using a variety of moves and spins to shake opponents free. He only needs a little bit of space to get his shot up, and has excellent quickness. At least one member of r/NBA_Draft thinks he’s a potential NBA player one day, and someone to keep an eye on. If his shooting is as advertised, he’ll definitely be able to carve out a role, but the learning curve can be steep with Euros.

In the front court transfer Enoch Boakye figures to carve out his fair share of minutes, particularly if Neptune is interested in getting minutes at the 4 for Eric Dixon. Boakye was a highly-touted recruit, ranking 31st in the class of 2021. Unfortunately for Mr. Boakye he made a fatal career era by committing to play for the other Hurley at Arizona St. Boakye played 50 games across 2 seasons in Tempe, where he posted an abysmal 1.5 & 2.4, with 1.2 blocks.

Last year the journeyman center found his way to Fresno State, where he posted 7.5 & 7.7, plus 2 blocks per game. He finally started to show why he was so highly touted out of HS. Depending on just how much they can get out of Boakye, he’s either a starter at the 5 alongside Dixon’s 4, or he’s the chief back up to Dixon be it with Dixon on the bench or Dixon playing some 4. For what it’s worth, with Dixon serving a suspension for participating in the Portsmouth invitational, Boakye started and played 27 minutes at center.

The Wildcats also add Kris Parker, a redshirt freshman out of Alabama. Kris was a 4* recruit coming out of high school, good for 99th in the Class of 2023. He red-shirted for Alabama last season. Parker is a bit of a wild card here. If he lives up to his impact he could be a really nice rotation player this season. If he does not, he could be a multi-year project , and frankly Neptune might not have enough time.

The wing and front court is rounded out by freshmen Josiah Moseley, Matthew Hodge, and Malcolm Thomas. From most likely to make an impact to least likely:

Josiah Moseley is a 6’6” 205 lbs forward from Texas. He’s a 4* ranked 73rd in 247’s class of 2024 composite rankings. Moseley is likely to be the primary back up to Jordan Longino at the 3. However, if Longino should struggle, Moseley will certainly have the opportunity to earn more minutes. In Villanova’s first game—a 75-63 victory over Lafayette without Eric Dixon—Moseley was the only freshman to crack the rotation, going 17 minutes and shooting a perfect 5-5 from the field for 10 points.

Matthew Hodge is a New Jersey forward ranked 82nd in the class of 2024. The Burner Ball depth charts have him as the starter at the 4. That does not feel right to me. As mentioned, I think Villanova plays a little larger this year with Dixon 4, at times, but when they play small with Dixon at the 5, Hodge can be the guy at 4, as Longino is simply not tall enough for the 4.

Malcolm Thomas was a 3* recruit, no. 206 in the class of 2024. He’s a 6’8” forward. He’s likely to be buried on the front court depth chart, and not likely to see regular minutes.

The Optimist’s Take: Kyle Neptune realizes he’s not Jay, but he can actually coach and he finally spreads his wings and hits his coaching stride as his own man, not “Jay Wright’s assistant.” The line-up meshes quickly. What appears like it will be a tight 8-man rotation—at least early in the year (Boakye, Dixon, Longino, Poplar, Brickus, Tyler Perkins, Jsoiah Moseley and Nnanna Njoku)—stays healthy and responds to Neptune’s coaching. Guys like Aleksander Gavalyugo and Kris Parker and Matthew Hodge develop into rotation pieces as the year drags on, giving ‘nova depth when it will need it most.

If Neptune’s coaching is on point, that is an 8-man rotation that can make the tournament. This roster isn’t as talented as last year’s ‘nova roster, but it is possible they have better results.

The Hater’s Take: Nova got absolutely abused in the paint last year. They ranked in the 5th percentile in both points in the paint and 2nd chance points per game. They managed only 2.4 blocks per game, while opponents scored 25.5 paint points per game, good for 96th percentile. All stats from CBB Analytics. Opponents meanwhile were in the 96th percentile in paint points and 88th percentile in 2nd chance points. Opponents posted 4 blocks per game to ‘nova’s 2.4.

Nova did little to truly address the issue. The Wildcats brought in Enoch Boayke from Fresno State, who grabbed 7.7 boards in just 22.7 mpg, good for 13.6 per 40. He can also provide some rim protection, putting up 1.2 blocks per game last year, 2.1 per40. However, I think there is definitely concern looking at the drop-off last season, as Boakye struggled against top tier competition, watching his O-Rating plummet from 104.7 to 90.1 and is OR% fall from 12.7 to 6.0. So you have to wonder how he can handle big men at this level. He had 3 or more fouls in 15/28 games last year, meaning foul trouble can be an issue for Boayke. With the lack of experienced depth in the front court, Boakye foul trouble will be a tough blow to ‘nova.

Meanwhile the defense struggles as guys like Brickus and Perkins are overmatched, the freshmen make freshmen mistakes, and Longino continues to play poor defense. In this scenario, Villanova would find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble come March.

Fan Pulse:

Putting on a brave face. Boldly attempting to cheer on another season of Kyle Neptune, even as it seems he may be a dead man walking. Talking themselves into a 5’9” point guard leading the way in the Big East. Definitely did not donate $50,000 on 1842 this year since Neptune is still the coach.

Bottom Line: This roster is significantly less talented than last year’s ‘nova squad. 3 seasons into his coaching career and Kyle Neptune has appeared to be going in the wrong direction. Do I think Jay Wright gets this team to an 8 or 9 seed? Almost certainly. Do I trust Kyle Neptune to do the same? No. I wouldn’t trust Neptune to babysit my pet rock based on his coaching skills.

Prediction: 17-14 (8-12), 7th place

Better Know a Team: Butler

Last Year’s Record: 18-13 (9-11)

Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 75 (57)
KenPom: 83 (61)

Coach: Thad Matta, 3rd season (this stint)
I genuinely fear for the man every time he has to come off the bench and hold a TO huddle on the floor. The man looks like he’s about to fall over. I apologize, I shouldn’t poke fun at someone’s medical issues, but it’s the first thing that comes to mind when I think of Matta in 2024-25. It’s almost unfathomable to believe he’s 17 years younger than Rick Pitino. And I know I’m getting old because when I saw Thad’s age my first reaction was “he’s only 57?!?! He’s still a young man! Too young to be moving like that.” Turning 40 in February is really fucking with my head, especially when my mental age is 23-year-old trust fund kid (I’ve earned all my cash, just the energy I bring on a daily basis).

Thad Matta doing his best Shaka Smart impression

The second thing I think of is Matta’s incredible resume. He’s won 7 conference tournament titles 1 in the Midwestern Collegiate Conference (who can forget the MCC, amirite?!), 2 in the A-10 with Xavier, and 4 in the B1G with Ohio State. He has 8 regular season titles, including 5 in the B1G with Ohio State. He’s been to the Final Four twice, including as runners-up in 2007 to juggernaut back-to-back Florida Gators squad under PC alum Billy Donovan.

If it wasn’t clear from that paragraph, I think the world of Thad Mata as a coach. If you’re having a conversation about the best coaches to never win a national title, I think Thad Matta is in the conversation, potentially even top-5 (Lou Carnesecca, Huggie Bear, and Mark Few probably my top-3 in some order, but I may be a little homer-ish on Louie).

That said, Thad hasn’t made a tournament in his last 4 seasons of coaching dating back to 2015-16 in Columbus. When you add in the optics described at the start of this section, you have to wonder just a little bit if Thad still has “it.” Personally, I think he does. His tenure at OSU only ended because of his health issues. He improved year over year in his 2 seasons at Buttler. His third year at Ohio St. he went to the national title game, winning 27 regular season games and the B1G tournament along the way. While I’d say a Final Four is an almost 0% chance, is this the year he breaks through and makes the tournament? Remains to be seen, but it wouldn’t be surprising.

Butler Blue III day dreaming of another Final Four…

Rotation:

PG: Kolby King, (Jr.) 6’2” 175 lbs.
SG: Finley Bizjack, (So.) 6’4” 195 lbs.
SF: Pierre Brooks, (Sr.) 6’6” 240 lbs.
PF: Jahmyl Telfort, (Gr.) 6’7” 225 lbs.
C: Andre Screen, (Gr.) 7’1” 255 lbs.

Bench:
Patrick McCaffery, (Gr.) 6’9” 212 lbs. (F)
Boden Kapke, (So.) 6’11” 255 lbs. (C)
Jamie Kaiser Jr., (So.) 6’6” 205 lbs. (G/F)
Landon Moore (Jr.) 6’3” 200 lbs. (G)
Evan Haywood (Fr.) 6’4” 190 lbs. (G)
Colt Langdon (R-Fr.) 6’7” 215 lbs. (F)
Augusto Cassia (So.) 6’8” 220 lbs. (F)

Big Non-Conference Games:

Arizona Tip-Off
11/28, 7pm, CBS Sports - vs. Northwestern (N)
11/29, TBD, CBS Sports - vs. Miss. St. or UNLV (N)

12/7, 5:30pm, ESPN2 - at Houston
Not sure how Butler drew the best team in the Big 12 for the BIG East Big 12 battle, but here we are.

12/14, 2:30pm, B1G Network - vs. Wisc. (Semi-Home)

What’s Old: Elite wing play. Butler returns its 2 leading scorers from a season ago, Pierre Brooks and Jahmyl Telfort. Brooks and Telfort is one of the best forward tandems in the league, probably second only to UConn’s one-two punch of McNeely and Karaban. Both Telfort and Brooks made the pre-season All-Big East Second Team. Let’s just let their stats do the talking:

Brooks 2023-24: 32.9 mpg 14.8/4.0/1.1 on 45.6/40.6/69.2, eFG 55.7%, TS 56.9%
Telfort 2023-24: 34.7 mpg 13.9/4.9/3.0 on 43.5/32.7/84.6, eFG 48%, TS 52%

What you have here is two elite wings that complement each other very nice. Brooks the shooter, Telfort more of a slasher who can make a shot when needed. They’ve both proven they can do it at this level, the offense will revolve around them, and there’s not much more that I can add.

There are 6 other returning players for Butler. At center, although only 2 of them saw time last season: Andre Screen and Finley Bizjack. Neither averaged more than 15 minutes. Screen is a 7’1” center who transferred into Butler from Bucknell in 2023. At Butler last year he played 12.9 mpg, posting a line of 5.2/4.5/0.4 pm 58/NA/59.3%. In his limited minutes, Screen generally held his own. However, Screen was rarely on the opposing team’s best big man, as Jalen Thomas got the starts and the lion’s share of the minutes at the 5, with fellow returnee Boden Kapke claiming a few minutes as well.

Jalen Thomas exhausted his eligibility, leaving just Screen and Kapke on the center depth chart. Kapke played just 7 mpg in 22 appearances last season, posting 2 & 2. Per 40 that translates too 11.7 & 9.9. So with more minutes, he should be able to contribute meaningfully on the offensive end. That said, this remains the biggest spot of weakness for Butler, with neither player having demonstrated the ability to truly contribute at the high major level with significant minutes. Center by committee a very real possibility with this duo. Another possibility at the 5 is 6’9” Patrick McCaffrey, more on that below

Junior Landon Moore, who transferred in 2023 from St. Francis (PA) is the only returnee, other than Brooks and Telfort, to have averaged over 15 mpg last season, posting 3.8/1.3/1.3 in 15.8 mpg on 38.1/37.3/75.8 shooting, with eFG of 47.1%. Per 40’s of 9.5/3.3/3.2 also don’t indicate he can be a nice rotation piece, but frankly given the lack of depth in the back court, Butler likely needs Moore to take a huge leap in year 2 with the Bulldogs.

Last, but certainly not least, Brazilian forward Augusto Cassia. The sophomore returns after averaging 0.6/0.9/0.1. That’s it. That’s the paragraph.

What’s New: WELCOME BACK MR. KING! St. John’s legend Kolby King has transferred in from Tulane by way of St. John’s, and figures to be the starting point guard in Indianapolis. King was criminally underutilized by MA during his time in Queens, logging just 7.7 mpg across 26 games.  When Pitino was hired, King decamped for Nawlins, where he became Tulane’s 5th leading scorer, playing starting 22 games for the Green Wave and Ron Hunter.

While seeing a player who suffered at the hands of MA get some redemption is heartwarming, the numbers…are good. Not great, but good. King scored an efficient 10.4/3.6/1.8 on 47.6/37.9/76.2, for an eFG of 56.1% in 27 mpg. That said, a lot is going to be asked of King in a very thin backcourt, including playing point guard. Of course Brooks can handle the ball some, and Landon Moore can come off the bench, but if this team is to make the NCAAT, King is going to have to develop into an quality distributor, something he was not asked to do at Tulane, where he was the tertiary ballhandler in a 3-guard lineup. His assists to turnover ratio last year was 1.8:1.3.

Fran and Patrick in happier times.

Patrick McCaffrey, of the Des Moines McCaffreys, has decided to leave the nest and spread his wings out from under his oppressive father’s thumb, and chose Thad Matta and the Butler Bulldogs. After taking a medical redshirt his first year at Iowa, McCaffery played in 121 games in four seasons, including 60 starts, averaging 21 mpg, 8.6/3.1/1.2 on 42.6/32.6/75 for an eFG of 48.7%. While not the most athletic, he’s definitely crafty, and finds ways to get near the rim. His three point shooting is good enough to keep defense from sagging off him on the perimeter, which could help open things up for the slashers like King and Telfort. The downside to his lack of athleticism is on the defensive end. He posted a 113.6 D-rating last year, 3rd worst on a shitastic defense that ranked 157 on KenPom. There may be some temptation to play him at the 5, but given his disturbing lack of defense, it might be unwise to put him in those situations.

The third and final transfer is Jamie Kaiser, Jr., a transfer from Maryland who played in 33 games for Kevin Willard last season, posting 4.4/2.0/0.2 on 26.9/26.5/77.8, for a horrific 36.3% eFG. At 6’6” 200 lbs. he’s built like a linebacker, so he can definitely provide a physical presence on the wing on the defensive end. He’s also got the pedigree, as he was a 4* recruit, 65th in the class of 2023. He’s reportedly a better shooter than his numbers last year would let you believe. He’s not the most athletic or the quickest, but he manages.

The Dime Store Dunlap

Freshman Colt Langdon was originally class of 2025, but reclassified in August to join the Bulldogs this season. He gives trailer park Brady Dunlap vibes. When Brady gets his heart broken one day and goes through his bad boy phase, he’ll look like Colt Langdon. He clocks in at 151 in the class of 2024, a 3*. A year of seasoning in practice will do him well, which is why it’s already been announced he will redshirt. A good piece for the future nonetheless.

Joining Colt in the class of 2024 is Evan Haywood, a 6’4” guard from Indianapolis. He is a 3*, ranked 286th in the class of 2024. In a thin back court there’s definitely a chance he gets minutes, but I wouldn’t count on it.

The Optimist’s Take: Telfort and Brooks elevate their games even further, and carry the team to the point of 40 points per game. Kolby King seamlessly steps into a full-time PG role, keeps Brooks and Telfort fed and happy, and contributes 10 or so points of his own, with 5 or 6 assists. Thad Matta still has some magic under that bald dome of his, add in a little Hinkle magic, and this is a team that could easily compete for a berth.

The Hater’s Take: Kolby King is NOT ready, he turns the ball over a ton, and you have to lean on Landon Moore and Pierre Brooks for ballhandling. Defensive liabilities at the 5, and to a lesser extent the 4, leave Butler unable to keep up offensively with the better teams in the league. Thinness in the back court could also bite them in the ass if King isn’t ready to be a full-time PG, their guards get in foul trouble, or god forbid they suffer an injury, even a brief one.

Fan Pulse:

I dunno. Whatever it is, it is midwestern nice.

Bottom Line: If there is one team I think can upset a lot of people’s projections for this league, it’s Butler. If the offense clicks, they’ll steal a couple games from the top of the league. But this league can be hell on guards and bigs. And Butler comes in with a PG who has never played full-time point and a thin, and defensively soft front court. To me, that sounds like a recipe for a bottom four finish. I do think this is a team that might improve as the year goes on, and given his history of winning conference championships

Prediction: 14-17 (6-14)

Better Know a Team: Seton Hall

Last Year’s Record: 25-12 (13-7), egregiously snubbed from the NCAAT; NIT Champions

Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 90 (38)
KenPom: 91 (50)

Coach: Shaheen Holloway, 3rd Season
Sha is an incredible coach. He has repeatedly demonstrated he can “do more with less,” a phrase I am sure Pirates fans are sick of already. If there’s one reason to feel optimistic in South Orange, it is the head coach. There’s a reason he was discussed for some high major vacancies this off-season, going so far as to interview with Louisville.

Unfortunately for Hall fans, Sha is also smart enough to know that eventually “doing more with less” will bite you in the ass. And given the Hall’s NIL situation, Sha (or the next Seton Hall coach) will be left doing more with less for the foreseeable future. So it’s entirely possible Sha bolts sooner, rather than later, especially if he has another year where his Pirates outperform expectations. I would enjoy it while you can Pirates faithful.

A mild reaction from the always animated and intense Holloway.

Sha has the energy of your local gym rat hardo. The type of guy who’s going to set the hardest picks imaginable in your pick-up game. The kinda guy who can’t ever play at 75%, even in a pick up game. The man has the intensity of a prize fighter walking to the ring…except he carries himself that way 24/7, if I saw him smile in and around a basketball game it would be the first time, and he does it all with a voice so off-putting it would make Patrick Mahomes blush. I honestly don’t know how he commands the respect of a team with a voice like that. Last season started with Sha and Wagner head coach Donald Copeland getting into it on the handshake line after a 21-point Pirates win, an altercation in which Sha shoved Copleand’s hand outta the way rather than shake it. Of course the season ended with Sha hoisting the NIT trophy, so perhaps there’s something to be said for his intensity.

Sha makes his living with defense. Going back to his cinderella St. Peter’s team, which made its run on the back of a defense that ranked 25 in KenPom’s final ranking, giving up just 93 points per 100 possessions. That defense has carried over to Seton Hall, resulting in defenses ranked 20 & 33.

Last season, Sha also had his best offense ever behind Kadary Richmond, Al-Amir Dawes and Dre Davis. Richmond and Davis transferred to St. John’s and Ole Miss, respectively, while Dawes graduated. Thier offense accounted for 61% of the team’s 73.8 points per game. This was good for the 70th ranked KenPom offense. By contrast, the defense was ranked 33rd by KenPom.

In other words, we know the defense will be there on any Sha coached team. He’s had 3 straight top-35 defenses dating back to his last year at St. Peter’s, and was 61st & 80th in 2020-21 and 2019-20, respectively. Only his first year at St. Peter’s was a bad defense, which is clearly forgivable.

The real question is what can Sha get out of this roster offensively.

Rotation:

PG: Dylan Addae-Wusu, (Sr.) 6’4” 215 lbs.
SG: Garwey Dual, (So.) 6’5” 190 lbs.
SF: Scotty Middleton, (So.) 6’7” 190 lbs.
PF: Prince Aligbe, (Jr.) 6’7” 225 lbs.
C: Yacine Toumi, (Sr.) 6’10” 210 lbs.

Bench:
Chaunce Jenkins, (Sr.) 6’4” 185 lbs (G)
Isaiah Coleman, (So.) 6’5” 180 lbs (G/F)
Gus Yalden, (R-Fr.) 6’9” 245 lbs. (C)
Zion Harmon, (Jr.) 6’0” 185 lbs. (G)
Emmanuel Okorafor, (Jr.) 6’9” 220 lbs. (C)
Godswill Erheriene, (Fr.) 6’9” 225 lbs. (C)
Jahseem Felton, (Fr.) 6’5” 175 lbs. (G)
Assane Mbaye, (Fr.) 7’3” 190 lbs. (C)

Big Non-Conference Games:

Last season the Pirates did themselves no favors in the non-conference schedule, going 1-4 versus high major competition with losses to: USC (N), Iowa (N), Baylor (A), Rutgers (H) and a win vs. Missouri in Kansas City (technically neutral site). The only one of those teams to make the NCAAT was Baylor.

The Charleston Classic:
11/21, 5pm, ESPN2 - vs. VCU
11/22, TBD, TBD - vs. Vanderbilt or Nevada
11/24, TBD, TBD - vs. Miami, Drake, Ok. St. or FAU

Not an elite field by any stretch. But Miami, Nevada, and VCU all figure to be in the tournament conversation in March. I hope my Pirate friends enjoy Charleston as much as I did!

12/8, 12noon, FS1 - vs. Oklahoma St.
12/14, TBD, TBD - at Rutgers

Not the best OOC slate. But the filler is higher quality than many others: St. Peter’s, Fordham, Hofstra, and Wagner is a pretty solid season-opening stretch, even though they’re not “big” games.

What’s Old: The coach, and his ability to implement elite defensive schemes. As long as Hall has Sha, they will always have a pretty high floor thanks to the defense alone, and can break through for big years when the offense clicks as well.

The most important returner is erstwhile Johnnie Dylan Addae-Wusu. It seems possible, even likely that Addae-Wusu will be asked to run the point this season. Last year he put up 8.6/5.3/2.2 in 32 minutes per game. As someone who has seen a lot of Addae-Wusu given to his 3 years at St. John’s, he is definitely a questionable ball handler. He averages almost 2 TOs per game, including 1.8 last year when he was, at best, the 3rd ball-handling option Behind Kadary and Dawes.

On the plus side, Dylan is built like a defensive lineman. As a defender he is not the guy you want to see turning a corner with a full head of steam towards the basket. He will steamroll you and draw the foul as you shuffle your feet in fear. Per CBB Analytics, Dylan Addae-Wusu was in the 88th percentile for shot attempts at the rim, accounting for 40% of his shots. He uses his size very well to create space and a lane to drive. However, across the board, including at the rim, Addae-Wusu’s shooting leaves much to be desired, posting only a 45.5% eFG, 17th percentile in the country.

Not to continue harping on it, but in 62 minutes last year when Davis, Dawes and Richmond were not on the floor, Seton Hall posted a 98.7 O-rating and a 22% TO rate, down from full team figures of 110 and 15.8% respectively. Those are the shoes that need to be filled by Addae-Wusu and the rest of the Pirates.

Isaiah Coleman is the second biggest returner. As a true freshman last year Coleman came in as a 4* ranked 114th in the 2023 class. He posted 5.4/2.6/0.5 in 18 mpg. On a per-40 basis his slash line was 11.9/5.6/1.2. Coleman will be a key rotation piece, potentially 6th man potential. How big of a jump Coleman can take, especially offensively, will be a big key for this team. Regardless of taking a jump on offense, Coleman is a strong defender, using his size, length and athleticism to clog lanes.

Coleman also needs to provide more consistency on the offensive end. He is prone to streaks. From January 24 to February 14 last year, a 6 game span, Coleman shot 61.1% from the field on 36 shots. The next game he did not attempt a shot in 10 minutes, followed by a 6-game stretch from the end of the regular season through the NIT game vs. the Other SJU where he shot 12% from the field on 17 shot attempts. With more minutes and a sophomore jump, Coleman can easily score double-digit points per game and contribute on the glass.

The Hall’s curtains standing at the ready during a recent Devils game.

The Prudential Center Curtains! Sources tell me they’re in position and ready for Hall games.

Also Me, back at the Rock, after swearing I wouldn’t attend another game there following last season’s debacle. What can I say? I just can’t quit you Newark…

The final returnee is David Tubek. Tubek was a non-factor last season, playing in only 16 games, with a slash line of 0.8/0.8/0.1. His per-40 slash line is just 6/6/0.5. In other words, I wouldn’t expect much from Tubek this season. Tubek was the 280th ranked 3* recruit in the 247Sports Composite Ranking, so it’s not surprising that he wouldn’t contribute much.

What’s New: Seton Hall had many gaping holes to fill this off-season, and one of those holes was center, with Jaden Bediako graduating and Elijah Hutchins-Everett transferring to James Madison. Bediako was a solid piece for Sha putting up 8 & 7, along with solid defense that included 1.6 blocks per game. To fill the front-court void, Sha brought in a quartet of forwards and centers from the portal: Prince Aligbe, Gus Yalden, Yacine Toumi, and Emmanuel Okorafor. They’re joined by freshmen Godswill Erheriene and Assane Mbaye.

One of this group needs to fill the void. Prince Aligbe was a 4* in the class of 2022, ranked 127th nationally in the 247Sports Composite. He appeared in 62 games across 2 seasons in Chestnut Hill, but seeing 19.7 minutes per game, he posted a slash line of 5.3/3.8/0.6. He also regressed slightly year one to year two, scoring 1.5 ppg less and 1 board less as a sophomore. He’ll need to take a sizable leap to fill the void, but his BC stats profile similarly to Bediako, who posted 5.2/4.8/.6 in 18 mpg in 4 seasons at Santa Clara. Of Course Bediako was predominantly a 5, and Aligbe is a 4, which is good because Aligbe doesn’t offer any real rim protection the way Bediako did.

Gus Yalden redshirted last season in Wisconsin. Some off-the-court issues likely caused him to work his way out of any chance at playing last season, as he got injured in a scooter accident, cited for underage drinking and for possession of marijuana. Perhaps he can be a future guest on the On High podcast, it is legal in NJ after all, and the NCAA no longer tests for it. Gus, if you’re reading this, hit me up on Twitter. DMs open @frankingeneral.

Yalden was a 4* in the class of 2023, coming in at 128th nationally. He seemed poised to be the next corn-fed white big to play at a B1G school when he enrolled at Wisconsin out of La Lumiere School, a national powerhouse prep program that has produced Brian Bowen, Tyger Campbell, Jeremy Fears, Jaden Ivey, Jaren Jackson, Jordan Poole, Jeremy Sochan, JJ Starling, and more in recent history. They’ve also produced the hilarious Jim Gaffigan and the decidedly less hilarious Chief Justice John Roberts.

Unfortunately for Yalden, it didn’t work out at Wisconsin. Hall picks up a high-quality redshirt freshman with good post moves. Whether he is ready to contribute at a Big East level in year 1 remains to be seen. However, he is an excellent building block piece who still has all 4 years of his eligibility in front of him.

Next up, Yacine Toumi. Toumi started his career at Little Rock, where he played just 7 games. Could not find any info on if this was the coach’s plan, or if he was injured. He sat out 2021-22, lending credence to the idea he was injured. He’s played the last 2 seasons at Evansville, where he started 63 games, playing 25 mpg, posting a slash of 10.6/6.1/1.4. The rebounding definitely jumps off the page.

Toumi is athletic and active, frequently cutting to the hoop for layups and dunks. He’s not afraid to pull-up and hit a mid-range as well. He looks to be better as a 4, as he seems to like to cut off-the-wing. At 6’10” he’s the right size for Big East level, but he appears a little slow and it’s not likely that he can create off the dribble for himself. That said, he seems like a pretty reasonable facsimile of Bediako. He also should have no problem translating to the Big East, in 11 games vs. Tier A&B competition last season he posted nearly identical O-Rating, eFG and shooting percentage figures to his overall numbers, per KenPom.

Emmanuel Okorafor—gonna be very difficult for me not to call him Okafor all year— is a 6’9” junior transferring from Louisville. He was an unrated prospect in the class of 2022 out of NBA Academy Africa. Okorafor couldn’t get off the bench the last 2 seasons, averaging just 8.5 minutes in 25 appearances total, posting a slash of 2.8/2.2/0.1, and a per40 of 13.8/12.4/0.3. The per 40 numbers definitely give you some hope that Okorafor can be a contributor, but it’s not something that should be counted on this season.

The front court transfers are joined by two freshmen: Godswill Erheriene and Assane Mbaye. Godswill is the better of the 2, a 3 star out of LuHi, the respected prep program on Long Island. He held offers from Ga. Tech, Maryland, Bonnies, St. John’s, Texas Tech, and USC. There’s a good chance he is undervalued at 153 in the 247Sports Composite, being overshadowed by the likes of VJ Edgecombe, Kiyan Anthony, and the Mingo brothers. This could be a really good find for Seton Hall, both this year—high level prep players tend to be farther along than their peers at less prestigious programs—and in the future as he develops.

Mbaye is a 7’2” 190-pound string bean of a center out of The Patrick School in Seton Hall’s backyard. He was unrated as a recruit, and he’ll need to add weight to his lanky frame in order to compete in the Big East. Wouldn’t expect him to contribute, and a red shirt is a definite possibility.

The back court and wing see 4 newcomers, headlined by former Friar Garwey Dual. Dual started 6 games, and appeared in 33 total, averaging 18.5 mpg, with a slash of 3.3/1.3/1.9, and an abysmal 39% eFG, as the Friars, like the Pirates, got snubbed from the NCAA tournament by the atrocious committee. Dual came into Providence highly touted, as 4* ranked 47th in the class of 2023. He never quite lived up to the hype at Providence. One thing he did do at a high level was defend. Providence had the 18th best defense in the country per KenPom last season, and Dual played his role, posting a 3.7 DBPM. He will give Sha a long, athletic, pesky guard that defend multiple positions.

Chaunce Jenkins comes in with a lot of expectations as a fifth year player with top mid-major experience. Jenkins did not produce much at Wichita State his first two years, but he broke out following his transfer to Old Dominion, winning All Sun Belt honors both seasons with the Monarchs. In two years at ODU Jenkins played in 86 games, starting 48, going for 31.6 mpg and a slash of 14.7/3.6/2.8, with a steal a game for good measure.

For a guard, he’s not much of a shooter, going 32.7% from deep on 2.8 attempts per game, indicating he can likely make the open ones, but he’s definitely not “a shooter,” then again neither was Dre Davis coming in, and he shot 37% on 5 attempts per game in his Seton Hall career, so perhaps Sha believes he can fix Jenkins’ shot as well. And Pirate fans should hope he does, because the closest thing the Hall has to a big time, proven high major scorer on this roster is Addae-Wusu

Scotty Middleton might be the most intriguing addition. A 6’6” forward out of Sunrise Christian, he was 50th in the country in the class of 2023, committing to DePaul Blue Demons head coach Chris Holtmann, when Holtmann was still at Ohio State. Following the Holtmann firing, Middleton played noticeably better:

Pre-Firing: 15 mpg, 3.7/1.4/0.7, 0.2 steals, eFG of 46%
Post-FIring: 17 mpg, 6.3/1.6/0.5, with 1 steal, on eFG of 65%

Whether that was Diebler or just a young kid finding his rhythm late in his freshmen year, the evidence is there that Middleton can compete at this level. As with Jenkins, the Pirates are desperately going to need Middleton to be a big time scorer to make up for the lost production.

Rounding out the back court transfers is Zion Harmon, a 6’0'“ guard out of Bethune-Cookman. Zion is an elite FT shooter, clocking in at 93% last season, and he got to the line 4 times per game. In 2 years for Bethune-Cookman he put up 14.1/2.1/3.4, plus 1.3 steals per game. His shooting leaves much to be desired, going 39%/30% for his career, an eFG of 46%. In a small sample size, his tier A&B figures on KenPom show a small drop-off, but it is possible he can translate to this level. However, it’s most likely that he’ll need a year at Hall before he can become a consistent contributor at this level.

Finally, the last backcourt player is true freshman Jahseem Felton. Felton is a 6’5” guard out of Combine Academy. He’s a 3* ranked 170th in the class of 2024. He brings the prototypical size that Sha loves in his guards, but it would be asking a lot for him to contribute this year, and he’ll likely be buried at the bottom of the guard depth chart.

The Optimist’s Take: The defense will be the typical elite defense that Sha always coaches. Some combination of Jenkins/Middleton/Coleman/Wusu replace the scoring that Hall’s big 3 put up last year (45+ ppg combined). Enough of the guys with question marks pan out. If all of that goes right, with Sha at the helm, they could sneak into the tournament as they should have last year.

The Hater’s Take: The team has too many questions:

• Toumi, Jenkins & Harmon - do they translate to this level

• Dual - can he up his game offensively

• Middleton - can he take a step up from what he did down the stretch for OSU

• Aligbe - can he improve upon his form at BC

• Coleman & Wusu - can they step up to fill the void offensively as the 2 guys who have played a year under Sha already

• Yalden & Godswill - can these freshmen contribute right away?

The hater in me says too many of these questions will be answered in the negative. The roster is just “meh.” There aren’t any stars, or even stars in the making. The roster a bunch of JAGs. They play their traditionally elite defense, but struggle to score, making it difficult to win games.

Fan Pulse:

Smug superiority to their neighbors across the river after a few years of dominance. An unfailing belief that because Sha has overachieved the last 2 seasons, he will overachieve every season. Still counting their lucky blessings someone was dumb enough to hire Willard, allowing them to hire Sha.

Bottom Line: On paper, this honestly might be the least talented roster in the Big East. DePaul has guys who can shoot and a clear identity (not that Hall doesn’t, their identity is defense), Georgetown has a good amount of talent, they’re just very young. This roster IS just a bunch of JAGs. It’s very unclear to me, and unlikely in my opinion, that enough of them step up to fill the offensive void left by Davis, Dawes, and Richmond.

One of the key differences between this crop of incoming players and last year’s is that last year you had Davis returning for year 2, an experience high major player before he got to Hall. You had Dawes who was a proven scorer at Clemson before coming in, and also entering his 2nd season last year. There is not a single guy on this roster that has demonstrated they can score on that level except the 9 games Middleton looked good at the end of last season. And even that looked more like “nice contributor” than “alpha scorer.”

Prediction: 13-18 (5-15), 9th Place

Better Know a Team: DePaul Blue Demons

Last Year’s Record: 3-29 (0-20)

Preseason Metrics (last season finish):
Torvik: 118
KenPom: 163

Coach: Chris Holtmann, 1st Season.
Ding dong the Stubbs era is mercifully dead. After the Leitao era—which once saw Leitao somehow miss the NCAAT with a team that included future NBA players Paul Reed and Max Strus and future National Champion Jalen Coleman-Lands—which ended with the ‘mons limping to the end of the 2020-21 season with a 5-14 (2-13) record with a team that featured future NBA player Javon Freeman-Liberty and future Final Four starter Charlie Moore (at Miami (FL)), DeWayne Peevy had seen enough, and he made the call to Dana Altman’s bag man at Oregon, Tony “Stubbs” Stubblefield.

Pictured: The 3 Saviors of DePaul Basketball

It seems like just yesterday the Stubbs era started with so much promise, as he rode JFL and future traitor David Jones to a respectable 15-16 (6-14) record, good for a 103 KenPom (just the 3 sub-110 KP since 2008), with wins vs. Rutgers, at Louisville, vs. #20 Seton Hall, at #21 Xavier, and vs. Marquette. Things were looking up. As seen above, the program had plenty of talent coming through. Clearly the facilities and the venerable Second City were a draw. DePaul just needed a coach, and it looked like maybe they had found him…

Alas it was not meant to be. As it turns out, Stubbs is just a bag man. And that’s OK. He is not a basketball coach. He followed-up that promising first season with a 10-23 (3-17) season, good for a KP of 135, and put the exclamation point on his downfall, leading DePaul to a 3-29 (0-20) season last year, good for what I believe to be the lowest high-major KenPom ranking of all-time, 304. In the KenPom era (beginning in 1997) DePaul’s previous low was 234 under Joey Meyer in 1997, when they were still in CUSA. That was also the only other time in that stretch that they had only 3 wins. The best player Stubbs was able to land…I don’t even know, let’s just say Da’Sean Nelson cause I think it’ll make everyone happy. While the Leitao era was bad, the Stubbs era was catastrophic, and sadly took the Demons to new lows.

But sometimes you gotta hit rock bottom before you can pull yourself up…

Enter Chris Holtmann. Chris is a legitimate basketball coach, highly experienced, and really knows the game. He is a far cry from the Bagman. Holtmann is a perfect fit for the Blue Demons in this writer’s humble opinion. He has the experience. He knows the Big East, putting up 3 straight 20+ win seasons at Butler, and a Sweet 16 before getting the Ohio St. gig. As with many big football schools, patience was not the strong suit in Columbus, and some bad luck hurt Holtmann along the way, as his best team per KenPom was in 2019-20, coming in at 8th, and looked poised to make some noise from the 4-6 seed line range. The other 4 of his first 5 seasons at Ohio St. saw him make the tournament and never make the second weekend. One middling 16-19 (5-15) season in 2022-23 and he was on the hot seat in 2023-24. Ohio St. opened league play 4-10, Holtmann was fired, Ohio St. slapped the interim tag on assistant Jake Diebler who put up an 8-3 record the rest of the way, making the NIT quarterfinals, enough to land him the permanent job.

Holtmann is someone who knows the BIG East from his time at Buttler. While this may anger some Buttler fans, I think the two jobs are fairly similar. Smaller program. Smaller brand (although Buttler was still riding the high of the Stevens era when Holtmann took over). Less resources. Requires a lot of energy and a holistic approach to success. Which is why I think the Holtmann era will go well for the ‘mons.

Rotation:

PG: Conor Enright (Jr.), 6’1” 180 lbs.
SG: Jacob Meyer (So.), 6’2” 195 lbs.
SF: Isaiah Rivera (Sr.), 6’5” 210 lbs.
PF: JJ Traynor (Gr.), 6’8” 190 lbs.
C: David Skogman (Gr.), 6’10” 235 lbs.

Bench:
Layden Blocker (So.), 6’2” 175 lbs. (G)
David Thomas (so.), 6’2” 195 lbs. (G)
Troy D’Amico (Gr.), 6’7” 210 lbs. (F)
NJ Benson (Jr.), 6’8” 225 lbs. (C)
CJ Gunn (Jr.), 6’6” 198 lbs. (F)
Sekou Konneh (Fr.) 6’9” 180 lbs (F)
Chris Riddle (Fr.) 6’5” 185 lbs (G)

Big Non-Conference Games:

12/4, 8pm, ESPNU - at Texas Tech
12/21, 3pm, B1G Network - at Northwestern

Two big road games for the ‘mons in the non-conference slate. Winning in Lubbock is a tall order, but that game vs. Northwestern is very winnable. These are the types of games DePaul needs to win this year for the good of the conference. I think they’ll get that win at their suburban rivals. They also have some quality mid-majors on the schedule, with Duquesne and Wichita State coming to Wintrust.

What’s Old: ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!

What’s New: ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING. We discussed the head coach above. The ‘mons open the season with 12 new scholarship players, and 1 open scholarship. 10 transfers, and 2 freshmen. If there’s one thing about this roster that pops, it’s the shooting. Jacob Meyer, a sophomore transfer from Coastal Carolina shot 40% from 3 last year. Troy D’Amico shot 37% in 3 years as a Saluki. David Thomas shot 40% for Mercer and came on late, scoring 17 ppg on 50/45/80 shooting down the stretch and through the SoCon tournament. CJ Gunn shot 34% on limited reps in the B1G. JJ Traynor shot 37% for a bad Louisville squad. Isaiah Rivera is a 40% shooter across 3 seasons at Colorado St. and 1 at UIC. David Skogman, the starting 5, can really stretch the floor, shooting 47% from 3 last year on 4 attempts per game. At 6’10” he should create some matchup problems on offense. And of course Conor Enright shot lights out for Drake during their stellar season last year, posting 42% on 3 attempts per game.

Rounding out the likely rotation are the only 2 non-shooters in the rotation: NJ Benson and Layden Blocker. Benson is a PF from Missouri State. He shot 63% from the field (all 2’s, no 3-pt attempts), putting up 9 & 8, and adding in a block and a half in just 22 mpg. He’ll be asked to fill in as an undersized 5 when Skogman heads to the bench. Nelson will also look to be the ying to Skogman’s yang, picking up Skogman’s slack on defense. That said, he is undersized for the 5, which could create issues in a Big East that features some high quality big men.

A lot of DePaul’s hopes will ride on Blocker’s athletic shoulders.

Layden Blocker is the most intriguing piece on the roster. Blocker averaged 13 mpg in 27 games, with 5 starts for an Arkansas team that massively underachieved amid rumors of locker room strife. 247 Sports’ composite ranking had him 35th in the class of 2023. He’s immensely talented, is the most athletic guy on the roster, and certainly has the highest upside of anyone on this roster. He’s also likely to be one of the better defenders on this roster, averaging 2 steals and 5 boards per 40 minutes. Calling him a “non-shooter” is probably a bit harsh. He’s not going to be a lights out shooter, but I think he will shoot better than the 12% from deep that he shot last year.

Holtmann also added two HS recruits, both 3-stars, neither of whom are likely to contribute this year. Neither player had much high-major interest, although PF Sekou Konneh did take a visit to Louisville. Given the lack of depth in the front court, it’s certainly possible Konneh sees some time this year, but big minutes would be surprising. SF Chris Riddle held offers from Illinois and Texas Tech, but neither were particularly serious in their pursuit. It’ll be interesting to see if these guys are fringe high major players, and if so, whether Holtmann can develop them into contributors in subsequent years or if we see them transfer down in competition next off-season.

Frankly, given where DePaul was, needing a whole new roster, and the limited resources on hand at this moment, it’s not surprising that the roster is lacking in high-end talent. However, it’s clear to see what Holtmann was thinking , and he put together a coherent, if flawed, roster. The clear plan for Holtmann’s ‘mons: “we don’t have the athletes, but we’ll try to shoot you to death.” In other words, Make DePaul Fun Again! #MDFA. I picture the whole season looking something like that time that Max Strus murdered whatever slim hope SJU had of a tournament bid by shooting something like 18/24 from deep (don’t fact check that, that’s how I remember it. That’s my truth. I don’t care what your “numbers” say).

The thing I like most about this roster is that despite having 10 Transfers, this team is young. Holtmann was a pretty good player developer at Ohio St., helping guys like EJ Liddell and others improve year over year. Six of the 10 transfers on this roster are eligible to return next year: Blocker, Enright, Meyer, Gunn, Thomas, and Benson. The odds of keeping all of them is slim in this day and age, but if you can keep and develop 3-4 of them, you have a nice core to build around. Add in a couple of quality transfers—particularly defensive guys—and suddenly this is a team that could make waves in 2025-26.

The Optimist’s Take: The shooting and offense translates to the Big East for those making a jump. Layden Blocker lives up to the potential of a top-40 player out of HS, and DePaul wins a bunch of games of the 95-90 variety, climbing into the top-7 in the Big East.

The Hater’s Take: This is still DePaul, the lack of high-end talent kills them, the shooting regresses for players making a jump up in competition, and the defense is every bit as bad as we expect it to be. I mean just look at these abysmal 2023-24 D-Ratings per Sports Reference, worst to best, 100 is average, lower numbers are better for defense:

Traynor - 115.4
Meyer - 111.7
Thomas - 111.6
Blocker - 110.9
Gunn - 107.7
D’Amico - 107.3
Skogman - 106.2
Rivera - 105.5
Enright - 101.9
Benson - 98.0

For those keeping track at home that’s 1 above-average defender (Benson) and one only slightly below average (Enright), and the rest are a mess. Holtmann’s best teams have all been great defensively. Of his 3 best teams at Ohio State , plus his Butler Sweet 16 team, the worst defensive figure was 23 in Holtmann’s first year at Ohio St. It will be very hard to replicate that defense this year, even though I think Holtmann is a very good coach. They simply don’t have the defensive horses.

So if we know the defense will be lackluster, if DePaul’s offensive talent doesn’t click, it could be another long year for DePaul.

Fan Pulse:

“DePaul is a work in progress. They have some pieces that if you sleep on them will hurt you big on the right night. They’re not going to be a pushover by any means but remain a verifiable big away from making real noise. Offensively they’re going to challenge teams because they can shoot from anywhere on the floor. Defensively they have holes that can be taken advantage of, namely in the paint. That said, DePaul is on their way to being on their way-they win a few they shouldn’t and could lose a couple they should win. But in a close game, they’ll definitely fight to the end.” - John Maniantis (@dibsemeritus on Twitter; host of The DePaud podcast)

Bottom Line: This blogger believes in the DePaul renaissance. I’m rooting for the DePaul renaissance. I think the DePaul renaissance happens under Chris Holtmann…

…it just won’t be this year. DePaul will be 1000% better. But sadly, that says more about last seasons depressing results, than the success they’ll see under Holtmann this year. The ‘mons will be the quintessential frisky team. When the shooting is at its best, they’ll hang with almost anyone. When the shooting isn’t there, they’ll struggle offensively due to a lack of athleticism. They’ll struggle defensively whether the shooting is on or not.

Prediction: 10th Place, 14-17 (5-15)

Better Know a Team: Georgetown Hoyas

Last Year’s Record: 9-23 (2-18)

Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 103 (173)
KenPom: 88 (192)

“I wonder what Rosie is up to right now?”

Coach: Ed Cooley, 2nd Season
What can we say about Ed Cooley? Guy had an eventful year+. At this blog, we believe the rumors. The man got busted in an affair and his wife forced him outta Providence. From there he wound up at Georgetown, claiming it was a better job than Providence, which is news to any college basketball fan under the age of 30. I mean look at that image, and tell me that’s not a man who checked out.

“Man this team sucks!”

When not looking like he’d rather be back in the Dunk, or at least anywhere but Cap One arena, Cooley was lecturing other athletics coaches with far more success than he’s had, recycling lines from his PC introductory presser, getting into it with Seton Hall fans reminding them he’s “rich as a mother fucker,” lecturing a student reporter in a press conference, and probably getting to know the local news and weather folks socially. He’s been busy, unfortunately, the Hoyas were also busy on the Court last year…busy LOSING! Burn!

Whatever the case may be, Cooley has recruited decently, and the team should be more competitive this year, It will be really telling to keep on eye on Cooley and his body language this season. He has a respectable young team that can grow into a pretty good team in years to come if Cooley remains engaged and develops the quality freshmen he’s bringing in. Hopefully for Georgetown that anticipation helps put more butts in the seats, because look at the back of that Cooley picture. That is DEPRESSING. Thousands of empty seats in the lower bowl. Upper tiers not even open. This is not your father’s Georgetown Hoya’s.

What all of this adds up to for Cooley and Georgetown’s intertwined futures remains to be seen. I will say this, much to the chagrin of Georgetown fans everywhere, but I see A LOT of Mike Anderson in Ed Cooley at this point in his career:

Ed Cooley in Happier times

• both run outdated systems

• both are far better motivational speakers than basketball coaches

• each coach’s best days are behind them

• the “best days” for each were objectively mediocre (a BET Title, a Regular Season title and a Sweet 16for Cooley; a Sweet 16, Elite 8 and an SEC tournament championship for MA)

• each came from their dream job (Cooley the local guy made good in Provy; MA at the school where he came up as an assistant under the legendary Nolan Richardson)

• both are well-liked personally among the CBB cognoscenti

• neither move made any sense: Cooley had PC on cruise control, and coulda coached a few more years and retired to the cushy TV gig he’s always longed for, and PC clearly the better job, and Cooley clearly doesn’t seem to have the same zest for reviving the program that he did at PC; MA because he was so out-of-left-field for St. John’s, and was a very odd fit and a fish out of water from day 1.

• both were billed as program saviors, there to pick the program outta the doldrums

• both seem completely checked out at their new gigs, as if they’re just collecting a retirement check, just peep the image…

Don’t at me.

Rotation:

PG: Malik Mack (So.), 6’1” 170lbs.
SG: Jayden Epps (Jr.), 6’2” 187 lbs.
SF: Micah Peavy (Gr.), 6’8” 215 lbs.
PF: Jordan Burks (So.) 6’6” 202 lbs.
C: Thomas Sorber (Fr.) 6’9” 250 lbs.

Bench:
Curtis Williams (So.), 6’5” 205 lbs. (G)
Drew Fielder (So.), 6’10” 216 lbs. (C)
Drew McKenna (R-Fr.), 6’8” 200 lbs. (F)
Caleb Williams (Fr.), 6’7” 215 lbs. (F)
Kayvvaun Mulready (Fr.), 6’4” 210 lbs. (G)
Jayden Fort (R-Fr.), 6’8” 195 lbs. (F)
Julius Halaifouna (Fr.), 7’0” 291 lbs. (C)
Seal Diouf (R-Fr.), 6’9” 215 lbs (C)

Big Non-Conference Games:

11/16, 1pm, NBC - vs. Notre Dame
12/6, 7pm, ESPN2 - at WVU
12/14, 2:30pm, ACCN - at Syracuse

Realistically, these are not “big” games, as it would be surprising if any of these 3 opponents make the NCAAT, but the league needs Georgetown to go at least 1-2 in these games to keep it respectable.

What’s Old: Most importantly, junior Jayden Epps. The star guard played his freshman year at Illinois, averaging just 9.5 points in 24.6 mins on a talented Illinois team. He transferred to Georgetown last off-season and Ed handed him the keys to the kingdom. Epps responded in a big way, posting 18.5 pts. and 4 assists (up from 1.5 at Illinois) in 35 minutes. He was named to the Preseason All-Big East Third Team.

On the downside, Epps was very turnover prone at PG, posting 3.4 turnovers per game. His defense was even worse, posting a D-Rating of 118.1 and a DBPM of -1.7. The eye test wasn’t much better.

However, in an off-season that saw starters Dontrez Styles, Supreme Cook and Rowan Brumbaugh transfer to NC St., Oregon and Tulane, respectively, and saw the Hoyas lose starting G Jay Heath and spot starters Ish Massoud, and Wayne Bristol to graduation, Epps elected to stay the course with Cooley and the Hoyas. While the graduations don’t hurt too much, the defections cost Georgetown its 2nd, 3rd and 4th leading scorers, its top-2 rebounders, and 2 of its top 3-point shooters.

The second biggest returner of note is Drew Fielder. Fielder was lightly used last year, garnering just 2 spot starts, and playing just 14.6 minutes per game, putting up 5 points and 3 boards. While that seems paltry, the Per-40 numbers provide a slightly more encouraging story, as Fielder was the 2nd leading rebounder on the team with 8.4 boards per-40 minutes, behind only Supreme Cook (min. 100 minutes played). Fielder was a top-150 4* recruit per the 247 Sports Composite, who Cooley thought highly enough to bring with him from his 2023 PC recruiting class. They’re definitely hoping for a big jump from Fielder.

The Hoyas also return Drew McKenna. McKenna is a 4* top-150 small forward who joined the Hoyas in late December after reclassifying from 2024 to 2023. He redshirted the rest of the season. McKenna is an interesting prospect out of Maryland. He has the handle of a guard in a forward’s frame, and averaged a double-double for Glenelg Country Day in his last season of prep school. He’s long and can clog passing lanes on defense and figures to be a decent shooter. It will be interesting to see what he looks like this year following a half-season of red-shirting. If there’s one off-the-court thing to love about the terroristic Hoyas, it’s that McKenna was locked in on joining the Big East, naming a top-3 for his recruitment of Butler, Xavier and Georgetown, before choosing the Hoyas.

What’s New: A lot. Georgetown has 4 transfers and 5 freshmen in the mix. Cooley’s senior class is headlined by Harvard transfer and reigning Ivy League Rookie of the Year, Malik Mack. Mack is a bucket, scoring 17.2 for the Crimson on a fairly efficient 41/34/81 shooting percentages, and adding 5 assists and 1.3 steals. By most accounts, Mack was a top-50 player in the portal.

The knocks on Mack would be—like backcourt mate Jayden Epps—his defense, putting in a D-Rating of 107.4 and a DBPM of -0.4. Additionally, you have to have a little concern if your a Hoya that maybe his game doesn’t translate at this level. As a St. John’s fan, we watched two highly-touted Ivy League transfers struggle for most of the year. Mack’s numbers in 7 games versus tier A & B competition per KenPom do not help matters much. His eFG drops from 47.9 overall to 42.0 vs. Tier A+B competition, and his O-Rating drops from 106.5 to 90.7.

Worse still is that this disparity exists between his conference only play and his overall play as well: in other words, Mack feasted on competition weaker than the Ivy League. Here are the games he had over his 17 ppg average:

• 20 at Rice (W) (KenPom 229)

• 22 vs. Northeastern (W) (250)

• 32 at UMass (W-OT) (92)

• 18 at Boston College (L) (71)

• 27 at Indiana (L) (91)

• 26 at American (W) 296)

• 18 vs. Brown (L) (191)

• 20 vs. Yale (L) (90)

• 18 vs. Columbia (W) (232)

• 19 vs. Cornell (L) (103)

• 18 vs. Dartmouth (W) (336)

• 21 vs. Columbia (W) (232)

• 20 at Brown (L-OT) (191)

Firstly, Mack did suffer from Mononucleosis mid-season, missed 3 games, and went from 20 ppg on 57% eFG to 15 ppg on 42% eFG. It is entirely possible that the mono nagged him all year. Having had it during my misspent youth, I can attest that the fatigue lasts awhile after you’ve “recovered.”

Be that as it may, Mack hasn’t even played a team in the top-68 of KenPom. Harvard’s best opponent last year was 69th-ranked Princeton. In 2 games vs. Princeton Mack averaged just 8.5 ppg on 7-21 shooting.

Do I think Mack is incapable of playing at the high major level? No. Do I think he‘ll need some time? Absolutely. Jordan Dingle took most of the season to get adjusted last year coming from Penn. I would expect similar from Mack this year. The bonus is that Mack still has 2-more years of eligibility in DC should he choose to stay. If he does, he could have a monster year…next year.

The Hoyas also added grad student forward Micah Peavy from TCU. Peavy adds some much needed experience to this roster, and high-end experience, having played in the tournament all four years, starting as a freshman under Chris Beard at Texas Tech, and all 3 of his seasons at TCU. For such a young team, Peavy should be a stabilizing presence. He put up 10.9 points, 5 boards and 2.6 assists last season for the Horned Frogs.

Georgetown also added former 3* forward recruit Jordan Burks out of Kentucky. He was VERY lightly used by the Wildcats, appearing just 20 times for 7 mpg. Burks can shoot, I guess (he was 2-5, 40% last year). He runs the pick-and-roll pretty well, he cuts to the hoop off-the-ball, but he’s not the kinda wing who will break a defender down off the dribble or get to the rim. His per-40 numbers are “meh”: 10.3 points per 40, 9 rebounds per 40, 1 block per 40.

Ultimately, there’s a reason this inexplicably 3:18 long YouTube highlight reel is mostly cupcakes and blowouts…I also love that some of them are him collecting the rebound on his own poor layup attempt at the rim. If THAT’S one of the best highlights you can include…oh boy. But for some reason, the Burner Ball depth charts have him penciled in as the starting 4, which is why I penciled him in as the starting 4 above. Is that accurate? I don’t know. Do I care? No.

Rounding out the transfers, 6’5” guard Curtis Williams from Louisville. We all know what a debacle Louisville was last year, and Williams was no exception. Sporting an atrocious O-Rating of 86.4, a hideous D-Rating of 117.3, an abysmal combined BPM of -3.8, and a student-in-a-commercial-break-contest worthy 31.7/28.7/71, for an eFG of 41%. My guess is this is a bit of a lotto ticket for Cooley. I don’t think this is someone Hoyas fans should expect much of off-the-bat, but he certainly has the pedigree, having entered Louisville as a 4*, top-150 recruit.

Georgetown also brings in the 12th rated freshmen class in the country. That class is headlined by 4* Thomas Sorber out of Philadelphia. Sorber is a BIG BOY, coming in at a stout 6’9”, 250 lbs. Per the Burner Ball depth charts, Sorber is likely to be the starting center. While I definitely expect him to be the long-term answer at center for Georgetown, asking a true freshman to come in and battle a roster of experienced Big East bigs like Ryan Cockbrenner, Eric Dixon, Samson Johnson, and Zuby Ejiofor, and experienced newcomers like Christ Essandoko and Tarris Reed is a tall ask. At no. 43 in the 247 Sports Composite Sorber, sits right on that line where it’s unclear if he will wind up being a major contributor, or being a piece that needs a year of seasoning and development.

Kayvaun Mulready feels like the most likely to get significant minutes this year given the shortage of depth at guard, he’ll be battling for the first guard off the bench role with Curtis Williams. Mulready is a 4* top-100 recruit.

Caleb Williams may also see time this year at the 4. Burner Ball depth chart has him listed as the no. 2 PF on the roster behind the aforementioned Burks, who is far from a sure thing to pan out. Williams clocks in at 6’7”, 215 lbs., rating 3 stars and ranking 199th in 247 Sports’ Composite Ranking.

Rounding out the recruiting class are a trio of front court players, starting with Julius Halaifonua, a 7’0” center from Australia, out of the NBA Global Academy. Definitely an quality piece given his size and pedigree, but he will be buried on the depth chart in a loaded front court. A year of seasoning will probably also help.

Rounding out the high school recruits are 6’8” center Seal Diouf, a 3* out of California and 6’9” forward Jayden Fort, a local prospect out of Jackson-Reed High School in DC. Diouf is expected to take a red shirt this season. Given the logjam in the front court—Sorber, Fielder, Burks, Caleb Williams & Halaifonua all likely ahead of Fort & Diouf on the depth chart—both Fort and Diouf are expected to red shirt this season.

The Optimist’s Take: Ed Cooley did a masterful job of identifying talent that was interested (Mack and Peavy) and under-utilized and under-appreciated gems (Curtis Williams & Burks), all of whom seamlessly integrate. Mack and Epps co-exist beautifully in the backcourt. They get what they need from Freshmen Sorber and Mulready, redshirt freshmen Drew McKenna and sophomore Drew Fielder.

I think Ed is more of a brunette man, but this already took more time than it should have

What we saw from Cooley off-the-court (figuratively speaking) last season (clapping back at hecklers; skipping TO huddles; generally looking like he’d rather be anywhere else) are all distant memories; the old, motivational, upbeat Cooley has returned. Perhaps he’s even found a new paramour…might I suggest Jacqueline Matter of Fox 5 DC?

The Hater’s Take: The team is just way too young, and they make too many young mistakes. Mack and Epps are unable to find a rhythm together. Guys like Curtis Williams and Jordan Burks are what they’ve shown to date in their careers. Drew Fielder fails to take a sophomore leap. The freshmen simply aren’t ready to contribute at this level. The defense looks like swiss cheese.

Fan Pulse:

Deep-rooted fear that Cooley might bolt for UVa. Buyer’s remorse. A bizarre level of confidence in a roster that only includes 1 proven high-major player.

Bottom Line: I think this Georgetown roster is set up for the future. But from where I’m sitting now, it doesn’t look likely to be this year for them. Too many question marks. Wayyyyy too young. Keep the core together, and they could be a tournament team next year with the right portal additions.

Prediction: 13-18 (4-16), 11th Place

Previewing the Big East

The Big East is coming off a mixed result in 2023-24. The top of the league was as good as ever, with 3 powerhouse teams—UConn, Marquette, and Creighton—making the NCAAT, and UConn of course wining its second consecutive National Championship. Creighton and Marquette each made the Sweet 16. On the flip side, 3 Big East teams were snubbed by the committee: Seton Hall, St. John’s and Providence. Seton Hall participated in the NIT, winning the whole damn thing. Val never went to bat for the league public following the snubs, but Hurley and Pitino have each used their ample pulpits to criticize the committee. “Bold move Cotton.”

Now that media day has come and gone, I’m going to give my picks her for preseason individual awards and all-conference teams. Below, I will also post my Big East rankings as I reveal them twice daily, starting Wednesday, with the final 3 dropping on Sunday. Without further ado, here’s my votes (that don’t count for anything lol):

Conference POY: Kadary Richmond - what can I say, I’m a homer. But it does seem like Kadary is dialed-in at St. John’s. His teammates voted him captain. I think he has a monster year with St. John’s, removed from the pressures of having to carry the load almost entirely on his own.

Conference DPOY: Ryan Cockbrenner - I mean this goes without saying. Odds would be like -15000 if you could find them posted. When the officials are scared to call fouls against you, it’s pretty easy to be elite defensively.

Freshman of the Year: Liam McNeely - not a lot of freshmen that will contribute in the Big East at the level McNeely figures to contribute. Feels pretty close to a lock here too barring injury.

Newcomer of the Year: Ryan Conwell - this kid is a baller. We’ve seen what Miller can do with transfer guards, and Boum and Olivari didn’t even have as much success before they got to X as Conwell did last year.

Coach of the Year: Rick Pitino - he’s going to have this Johnnies team cooking from the opening tip on 11/4, and they’re not going to stop cooking until March, maybe April.

First Team:
Ryan Cockbrenner, Creighton
Eric Dixon, Villanova
Dayvion McKnight, Xavier
Alex Karaban, UConn
Kam Jones, Marquette

Second Team:
Pierre Brooks, Butler
Jahmyl Telfort, Butler
Deivon Smith, St. John’s
Ryan Conwell, Xavier
Aidan Mahaney, UConn

Third Team:
Aaron Scott, St. John’s
Zuby Ejiofor, St. John’s
Steven Ashworth, Creighton
Jayden Pierre, Providence
Wooga Poplar, Villanova

PROJECTED BIG EAST RESULTS:

1st - To Be Released

2nd - To Be Released

3rd - To Be Released

4th - To Be Released

5th - To Be Released

6th - To Be Released

7th - Villanova

8th - Butler

9th - Seton Hall

10th - DePaul

11th - Georgetown

Welcome to On High

Welcome to my humble Big East blog, "On High.” Here I’ll discuss all things BIG East basketball, with a particular emphasis on St. John’s. Why a blog you may ask? Well, I think people were getting tired of my 50,000 word Tweets (curse you Elon for ever giving us the option!!), so I set this up to be more of an outlet for my longer thoughts.

What can you expect? Generally, we’ll be covering all the biggest news and topics in the BIG East. There’ll probably be a weekly gambling post, games to watch, etc. In the immediate short-term, you can expect my team-by-team BIG East breakdowns beginning tomorrow, and going one per day until we’ve hit all 11.

Moving forward, you can expect to see contributions from other writers, probably a BIG East officials power ranking, a BIG East power ranking, perhaps some recruit tracking, some metrics tracking, and more.

The piece de resistance will be a weekly live podcast where I will recap the week that was in the Big East…while high. Hence the title “On High,” because I will literally be on the air high, and of course because of the double entendre with the religious meaning of “on high.” My hope is to have some guests on the podcast, and given that no self-respecting serious journalist or personality, let alone a player, coach, or administrator will join the show as a guest, you can probably expect a lot of me, but also some of your favorite BIG East Twitter personalities to join me as events dictate.

At the end of the day, this is as much an experiment as it is a fully formed idea, so I am fully open to hearing suggestions about site features, blog posts, and other things I should do with the site and podcast.

So buckle up, strap in, grab your favorite strain (Heir Heads or Z Pie for me), grab your favorite alcoholic beverage, or a soda if you’re sober, and let’s have a good time with it.