BIG EAST POWER RANKINGS: Opening Night Edition
My running bit on Twitter is my Reactionary Big East Power Rankings. I put them out at random intervals based on extreme recency bias. Many people still do not get the bit and attempt to argue with me. So without further ado, my Big East Power Rankings, Opening Night Edition. I am going to treat this edition of the Power Rankings as my pre-Big East season prediction. I’ll give you my final Big East standings and NCAAT, NIT or IN THE PORTAL EARLY ratings for each team. Subsequent editions (maybe monthly) will simply have the teams power-ranked and include a blurb for each. Here. We. Go.
THE CONTENDERS (for the conference)
Marquette - WAB 4, KPI 4, SOR 3 - Marquette is the clear cream of the crop, and will have no problem making the tournament. They’ve had an outstanding run in OOC play, knocking off Maryland, Purdue, Georgia, and Wisconsin, all home or neutral, with their own loss coming at T-Rank no. 7 Iowa State. One more test coming up at very game Dayton Flyers team on Saturday. Adding a Quad 1 road win (Dayton is currently no. 42 in T-Rank) would be the capstone on a fantastic OOC performance. While they’re most likely to finish atop the conference, and certainly want to land a high seed in March, Marquette could likely coast into the NCAAt with a 10-10 conference performance, maybe 11-9 at most.
Prediction: 27-4 (17-3) - NCAAT
St. John’s - WAB 49, KPI 33, SOR 50 - Probably a little bit of the homer in me, but I think St. John’s has been the 2nd best team in the conference thus far. They should have won the Baylor game had the referees initiated a proper replay review. They had an atrocious shooting night that cost them the Georgia game, but still only lost by 3 points, completely controlled New Mexico, UVa and Kansas State. UVa clearly sucks and Kansas State has not looked great, but I would still expect UNM and Kansas State to be near the bubble, at least, if not both in the tournament safely come March. Obviously, SJU has some work to do to improve those resume-based metrics, but they’ll have plenty of opportunities. WAB is likely to be particularly important this year. While it’s not the same as the NCAA’s WAB, Torvik’s WAB is likely to be similar, and frankly his site contains way more information than the NCAA site, particularly WAB values for each remaining game. These obviously change as teams get better or worse in Torvik’s efficiency ratings, but as of now the average win for SJU in conference play is worth .4375, meaning the average loss is -.5625, so, while I predict 16-4, the bare minimum SJU needs to make the NCAAT, based on my back of the envelope math is 13-7. Multiply 13 by .4375, multiply 7 by -.5625, subtract the L score from the W score, and it nets out to a 1.55 WAB. We are currently at .4 in WAB, and it should get to approximately .58 with wins over Bryant and Delaware, for a total WAB of 2.13. Last year no team over 1.0 was left out except Princeton. The highest the WAB bubble has been in recent years is 1.3. So we’d have 22 wins in a power conference, down though it may be, a top-30 WAB, probably similar in the other results-based metrics, and for seeding purposes we’d have elite metrics. I think we’re going to be fine. I’d say 85% chance we make the NCAAT.
Prediction: 25-6 (16-4) - NCAAT
UConn - WAB 78, KPI 72, SOR 67 - UConn seems to have gotten their feet back under them after a disastrous Maui trip beginning with the shocking upset of Baylor. It’s not shocking in a vacuum, but to see this UConn team win against a top-tier opponent without Alex Karaban was very impressive. UConn backed it up by taking the show on the road, getting Karaban back, and whooping Texas on its home floor far worse than the 11-point margin would indicate. UConn has a chance on Saturday to add one more sterling line on its resume as they’ll meet Gonzaga in the World’s Most Famous Arena. UConn, even more so than St. John’s, needs to goose its resume-metrics if its to make the NCAAT. A win Saturday vs. Gonzaga would be a fantastic start, and would be worth +0.82 WAB, and would push their WAB back over 0 from -0.4 to +0.42, essentially putting UConn on the same resume-metrics footing as St. John’s heading into conference play. Of course UConn’s resume already has 2 things St. John’s resume does not: a Q1 road win and 2 wins over likely NCAAT teams. On the flip side, St. John’s has not taken a loss as bad as Colorado, and UConn has 2 losses roughly equivalent to SJU’s Georgia loss.
Prediction: 20-11 (13-7) - NCAAT
Xavier - WAB 61, KPI 70, SOR 63 - I believe my thoughts on Xavier this season were well known. I thought they were overhyped all off-season. My concern broadly stated was that here were no sure things on the roster other than Ryan Conwell and Dayvion McKnight. Freemantle was coming off a long injury layoff. Jerome Hunter is a nice rotation piece at his best, but has never been an elite player. Guys like Marcus Foster and Dante Maddox might not translate to the next level. Once Lassina Traore—a guy who already had a question mark of translating up in my book—went down with injury it left a gaping hole in the front court. John Hugley IV was not that productive last season, no where near his best season 3 years ago at Pitt, and he is coming off an injury, and when he’s health come Big East play he is going to have his hands full guarding Big East big men, let alone being productive on the offensive end. So where is X now? Well I think roughly the same place. I was 100% right re: Foster and Maddox, neither of whom have scored anywhere close to the levels they did previously, Hugley is still recovering, so score that one incomplete. The only spot I was wrong was regarding Freemantle. He’s looked great coming off the injury layoff.
Prediction: 22-9 (13-7) - NCAAT
Creighton - WAB 71, KPI 62, SOR 66 - Creighton came into the year firmly entrenched in the Big East’s elite troika. Now they’ve got a battle just to make the NCAAT. Like so many, Creighton opened the year playing cupcakes, and after a brief struggle with UTRGV before winning by 13, Creighton was doing what Creighton does. Then Nebrasketball came to Omaha and broke the Blue Jays, winning 74-63. An optimist would would have written this off as an anomaly. A mediocre team getting hyped up as can be for a rivalry game versus a better opponent, who already had their eyes set on Las Vegas and a stacked field for the Players Era Tournament. Don’t worry, they’ll recover in Vegas. WRONG! Creighton opened the Players Era with a blow out loss to SDSU, and following that up with a narrow loss versus Texas A&M. The Blue Jays rounded out the trip beating a better-than-expected Notre Dame team 80-76. Notre Dame proved to be the get right game the Blue Jays needed, knocking off no. 1 Kansas 76-63 at home in their next tilt, and backing it up with a home romp over UNLV. Unfortunately for Creighton, Pop Isaacs was lost for the season to injury during the Kansas game, leaving a gaping hole on the offensive end right when it seemed Creighton had figured it out. In the UNLV game fellow transfer Jamiya Neal contributing in a big way, posting 19 points, 9 rebounds, 9 assists and 4 blocks. Neal has looked fantastic for the Blue Jays in 2 of the last 3 games, but he struggled versus Kansas, SDSU and Texas A&M. Neal wasn’t the only one to step up. Sophomore Jasen Green contributed 12 points in 23 minutes and Isaac Traudt added 15 in 28 minutes. Ashworth added 17 and 8 assists. So where does all that leave us with Creighton? Well there’s 2 major question marks: 1) what does this starting lineup look like? Jackson McAndrew and Mason Miller both started versus UNLV but only got 11 & 12 minutes respectively. Green and Traudt came off the bench and played 23 & 28 respectively, to great success. Do they get the starts moving forward? 2) related, but depth could become an issue. Only 4 players on Creighton average 18 or more minutes per game, and one of them is Pop Isaacs. While it’s nice that Green and Traudt stepped up in a big way, is that sustainable? And even if it is, who is providing anything off the bench? Miller or McAndrew or King needs to find his footing as well. If Creighton answers these questions positively, it will easily be an NCAAT team. Saturday’s game against a much-better-than-UNLV Alabama team will be very telling. If things go sideways this season from a depth and offensive production standpoint, fans in Omaha could be in line for one of their worst seasons ever. I am choosing to trust McD’s coaching and the plantation culture to win out.
Prediction: 19-12 (12-8) - NCAAT
PRETENDERS
DePaul - WAB 98, KPI 145, SOR 91 - When DePaul is shooting well it can beat almost anyone. When it’s not…it gets smoked by Texas Tech and loses a squeaker at home in overtime to PC. I look for the ‘mons to be better than they’ve shown thus far, but probably still fall just short of the NCAAT.
Prediction: 20-11 (10-10) - Bubble(FFO)/NIT Autobid
Butler - WAB 76, KPI 51, SOR 74 What a roller coaster it has been for the Bulldogs. They opened with a victory over Missouri State that was way too close for comfort, before dropping a buy game to Torvik no. 248, Austin Peay. The epitome of brutality. They then proceeded to beat SMU at home by 11, and beat Northwestern in the Arizona Tip-Off MTE by 2, and the Austin Peay loss was a distant memory by the time they played Mississippi State in the Arizona Tip-Off final, a game that saw Butler swing the upset 87-77. Since then Butler got smoked by Houston in Houston, and dropped a second buy game, this time to NDSU. Would the real Butler please stand up? Would I be surprised by any outcome for this team? Probably not. Could be anywhere from a tournament team to nothing. Part of the problem is that Butler is built on wing play. It lacks a front court or a back court. Having Jahmyl Telfort and Pierre Brooks playing in between Kolby King or Finley Bizjack at the point and Andre Screen at the 5 is like have caviar sandwiched between 2 harden dog turd crackers, a thing I just made up for this analogy. Ultimately, I just can’t bring myself to buy a team that lacks at the 2 most important and stabilizing positions.
Prediction: 16-15 (9-11) - NIT Autobid
Providence - Providence just doesn’t look like it has the horses this season. You lost Devin Carter and replaced him with Bensley Joseph. You lost healthy Bryce Hopkins and replaced him with still-not-100%recovering Bryce Hopkins. You replaced Josh Oduro with Christ Essandoko. That is not a recipe for success. The one thing that hasn’t changed? The Dunk is still the most electric atmosphere in the conference, and the most slept-on atmosphere in the whole country. That will always create a floor for Providence that’s fairly high.
Prediction: 16-15 (9-11) NIT at-large
Villanova - I’m not buying the renaissance. I still don’t trust Kyle Neptune as head coach, winning streak be damned. This roster is less talented than last year’s, so why would we expect better results? The lone bright spot for ‘nova: Eric Dixon is playing at a National Player of the Year level, but unfortunately is unlikely to win given how bad ‘nova is.
Prediction: 11-20 (4-16); early start on the portal
Georgetown - Much improved, but there is only so much Ed Cooley can do. Literally. He’s an above average coach, at best.
Prediction: 12-18 (4-16); early start on the portal
LOLOLOLOL
Seton Hall - Sha is a great coach. That’s about the only nice thing you can say about Seton Hall. This year’s Seton Hall team epitomizes the old saw that sometimes, it’s not about the Xs & Os, but the Jimmies and the Joes. There’s only so many times Sha can do more with less, and as it turns out, this is the team that is too less. Unless Hall gets its NIL in order, if I were Sha, I’d start exploring my exit options while people are still giving him the benefit of the doubt on the issue.
Prediction: 8-23 (3-17)