Better Know a Team: Villanova

Last Year’s Record: 18-16 (10-10)

Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 41 (31)
KenPom: 20 (51)

‘Nova needs less facepalming and better coaching from this man.

Coach: Kyle Neptune, 3rd Season
Traditionally, college basketball coaches got 4 years before the seat got hot, just enough time for a recruiting class to go through a full cycle. Even in the “one-and-done” era, since the 2006 rule change prohibited the top players from going straight outta HS to the NBA, most players would stay and develop for 2-4 years. In the year of our lord 2024, that traditional cycle has been flipped on its head. With the NCAA instituting the transfer portal, allowing 1 free transfer and now unlimited free transfers, the NIL boom and the bonus COVID year, the last few years made it easier than ever to turn a team around quickly. We saw it at places like ISU and KSU and Alabama, where coaches TJ Otzelberger, Jerome “cupcake lover” Tang and Nate “Making ‘bama a Basketball School” Oats promptly turned their teams around, and in the case of Oats and Otzelberger, turned their teams into perennial top-15 programs.

And then there’s Kyle Neptune. Kyle took over a team coming off a Final Four berth. Of course that team lost Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels, as well as some role players and saw Justin Moore miss most of Neptune’s first year with injury. However, in Year 1 it’s undeniable that Neptune was left with a solid roster, and of course he was well-educated in the ways of Jay, serving under him as an assistant. In year 1 he returned Eric Dixon, Caleb Daniels (14 ppg that season), Brandon Slater, Justin Moore, Jordan Longino, and benefited from Jay Wright’s recruitment of Cam Whitmore and Mark Armstrong. That team went 17-17 (10-10), and Neptune mostly got a pass. The Moore injury left him without a real PG, and Jay’s late retirement left Neptune behind the 8-ball in the portal. Additionally, Nova’s NIL was not yet up to snuff. But even as Neptune got some grace from the fanbase, one couldn’t help but wonder “would Jay have made the tournament this year?”

Year 2 saw the return of Justine Moore. Also returning were Eric Dixon, Brendan Hausen, and Jordan Longino. Nova upped its NIL game, and Neptune got with the times and hit the portal…hard. Villanova snagged the #10 player in the portal per 247 Sports, Tyler Burton. They also added the #28 transfer, big athletic guard TJ Bamba, and wing man Hakim Hart, the #29 ranked transfer in 2023. They also added Lance Ware…

That was good for the 5th ranked transfer class in the country per 247 Sports. Expectations were high on the main line. Certainly on paper last season’s ‘nova squad was a tournament team. The coaches picked them 4th in the league (those same coaches also picked UConn 3rd, and we know how that turned out). But it wasn’t meant to be. The highly-touted newcomers failed to integrate into the roster, with only Bamba scoring double-digits (10.8 ppg), Justin Moore was not the old Justin Moore, and Mark Armstrong struggled at the point. About the only player who lived up to expectations was steady Eddie, Eric Dixon. The once proud program limped to an 18-16 (10-10) record, reaching rock bottom early in the year, going 0-3 vs. Penn, the other SJU and Drexel to finish 6th in the Philly Big 5—a statement that will never not be funny. Years from now we can have a college basketball/Big East bar trivia night and one of the questions should absolutely be “following the expansion to 6 teams, what was the first school to finish 6th in the Philly Big 5?”

However, the season was not without some high points. Villanova looked like the team we all thought they were in the Battle 4 Atlantis, knocking off Texas Tech, UNC and Memphis en route to winning the tournament. They won the ugliest game of basketball ever played in the shot clock era over Maryland at the Finn, 57-40(!). Peanut Chews sponsored that game for some reason, and I hope they didn’t pay too much. They damn near beat Kansas State in the Little Apple, forcing overtime and losing by 1 in a see-saw battle, they beat UCLA by 9 at Wells Fargo, beat Creighton in OT at the CHI Health Center in Omaha, and they got an always-tough road win at the Dunk vs. Providence (it’ll always be the Dunk to me goddamnit)

But there were plenty of embarrassments as well, such as losing at the Finn vs. St. John’s, getting run off the floor at MSG by SJU, losing in double OT to a bottom-dwelling Butler team, barely beating 3-29 DePaul in the BET, and ultimately getting bounced in the first round of the NIT by VCU. Such were the depths of this humiliation that there were rumblings that Neptune should be fired among the fan base, with some going as far as to threaten that their parents would not donate on the next 1842 day, forever begging the question what IS life, yo?

Of course Neptune wasn’t fired, it didn’t seem like the school ever gave serious consideration to that, and Neptune headed back to the portal to restock his squad once again. But in year two it really couldn’t be denied: Jay would’ve had that team in the tournament easily, and maybe even made some noise in March. All of that background is simply to say this is a big year for Kyle. In this day and age 4 years is no longer a guarantee, especially not at a proud program like Villanova. For Villanova, this season is all about Kyle Neptune. He once again has enough talent to return to the tournament, its time he delivers.

Rotation:

PG: Jhamir Brickus, (Gr.) “ 5’11” ” (OK buddy!) 188 lbs.
SG: Wooga Poplar, (Sr.) 6’5” 197 lbs.
SF: Jordan Longino, (Sr.) 6’5” 215 lbs.
PF: Eric Dixon, (Gr.) 6’8” 265 lbs.
C: Enoch Boakye, (Sr.) 6’11” 255 lbs.

Bench:
Tyler Perkins, (So.), 6’4” 212 lbs. (G)
Josiah Moseley, (Fr.) 6’6” 205 lbs. (F)
Nnanna Njoku, (R-Jr.) 6’9” 245 lbs. (C)
Kris Parker, (R-Fr.) 6’9” 201 lbs. (G/F)
Matthew Hodge, (Fr.) 6’8” 220 lbs. (F)
Malcolm Thomas, (Fr.) 6’8” 218 lbs. (F)
Jordann Dumont (R-Fr.) 6’8” 220 lbs. (F)
Sasha Gavalyugov, (Fr) 6’2” 175 lbs (G)

Big Non-Conference Games:

11/12, 5pm, CBS Sports Network - at the other SJU
11/19, 7pm, Peacock - vs. UPenn (at the Finn)
12/7, TBD, TBD - Big Five Classic vs. Drexel, La Salle or Temple

That’s it. Villanova just needs to avoid coming in 6th in the Big 5 again, for the good of the conference.

Ok, ok, they also have:
11/15, 5pm, TBD - vs. UVa (N) - a game that has lost some luster following Tony Bennett’s shock retirement.
11/24, 1pm, ESPN - vs. Maryland (N) - Willard back in the Rock!
12/3, 6:30pm, FS1 - vs. Cincinnati (BIG East-Big12 Battle)

All in all a very, very soft schedule, leaving ‘nova little margin for error in the non-conference. Even looking backwards through the lens of “well they expected UVa to be good,” that’s still only 3 high majors, one of which is mediocre, at best.

What’s Old: Eric Dixon. Literally. Guy is so old he’s chasing early bird specials at the local Applebee’s. Of course, despite his advanced age, Dixon remains a stellar collegiate ball player, making up for his lack of size and lack of athleticism with crafty post moves and precision shooting.

He’s been one of the best players in the conference the last 2 years. In that span he averaged 31.1 minutes across 68 games, starting all of them, posting 16/6.6/1.5 on 47.8/35.9/82.9, for an eFG of 54%. He adds solid defense with a D-Rating of 100.9 and a DBPM of 1.7. Barring catastrophe, he’s a lock to be First Team All Big East, as he was voted preseason, and if ‘nova plays better than it has the last 2 seasons, he’s a dark horse for Big East Player of the Year. The fact that Dixon is a dark horse for conference player of the year is less about his talents than it is about the insane depth of high end talent in the league.

Joining Dixon in the backcourt, the only other holdover from the Jay Wright roster left on the main line (and frankly, it’s amazing there’s still 2 holdovers 3 seasons removed from Jay’s tenure) is senior Jordan Longino. Longino is a local product out of Germantown Academy. He was a 4* recruit, ranked 53 in the 247 Composite in the class of 2021. I usually don’t mention the high school pedigree of experienced college players, but in this case it’s worth reference because Longino has never quite lived up to that billing. He was lightly used his freshman year, but the last two seasons he’s played 54 games, notching 13 starts, posting 5.8/2.3/1.3 on 40.4/28.7/79.2. It’s worth noting his shooting did improve to 32.5% from deep and 83.3% from the stripe.

While several of the guys ahead of him in the rotation last year failed, fans certainly had loftier expectations for Longino, and his inability to step up exacerbated Villanova’s problems last season. Part of his problem is that he settles for perimeter shots too often, taking 48.1% of his FGA from deep last year per CBB Analytics, including 32.9% in above the break 3’s, on which he shot only 29.6%. He was an impressive 40% on corner 3’s, but he attempted less than 1 per game, 15.2% of his total shot attempts. His best bet is getting into the paint, where he shoots 52.9%, 90th percentile, but again only took 10.4% of his shots from that range. His at the rim FG% was 54%, only the 35th percentile. In other words, his best bet is to slash or cut and pull up for a mid-range in the paint, or even outside the paint, where he shoots 40%, 69th percentile. Villanova is going to need Longino to step up this year if they are to return to the tournament.

The last two returners are Nnanna Njoku and Jordann Dumont. Across 3 seasons on the main line Njoku has played in 24 games, averaging 3.6 mpg, and 0.8 ppg. He may carve out a small role this year, but let’s just move on.

Dumont was a 0* recruit in the class of 2023. It is unlikely he’ll be a contributor this year.

THAT’s the “5 foot, 11 inch” Brickus giving up “1 inch” to the 6-foot tall Foster Loyer

What’s New: Graduate Point Guard Jhamir Brickus makes the move from Philadelphia—La Salle to be exact—to suburbs to be the starting point guard for the Wildcats. Brickus had a breakout season for La Salle starting 33 games, playing 36.6 mpg, and posting 13.9/3.5/4.8, shooting 43.3/40/85.7. That free throw shooting certainly fits the ‘nova mold, and 40% from deep fits anyone’s mold, particularly at a decent 4.5 3-pt attempts per game. Add in almost 5 APG, and it’s clear to see why ‘nova is high on Brickus orchestrating this offense. No Villanova player has put up 4+ assists per game since Collin Gillespie put up 4.6 in 2020-21. The last 2 season’s ‘nova has sorely lacked a floor general. The experienced Brickus gives them just that.

Not Jhamir Brickus, but maybe ‘nova should retire the powder blue jerseys this year…

The downside? Clearly his defense. Let’s start with the physical limitations, Brickus is listed at a VERY generous 5’11”, but I heard the hosts of a prominent ‘nova podcast recently joking that he was really 5’8”. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. He’s also not the thickest or strongest looking guard. Just running down the list of team’s starting guards, the only other guards 6’ or less is 5’10” Sean Jones, who may or may not make it back from injury this season and shares the back court with 3 dudes 6’3” or taller, the 6’0” Deivon Smith, who shares a back court with guys that are 6’6”, 6’4”, & 6’4”, and Xavier PG tandem Dayvion McKnight and Trey Green who both come in at 6’0”.

Advanced metrics do not paint a better picture. With Brickus on the court, La So all of that leaves Villanova with some defensive shortcomings in the back court. He posted a 111.4 D-Rating last season, and is a career 109.3, his DBPM was -.4 last season, and -.03 for his career, including 3 straight negative DBPM figures. With Brickus off the floor, LaSalle posted a defense rating of 101.9, compared to 111.5 with Brickus on the floor. Given the size and quality of the guards in the Big East versus the A-10, Villanova will have to scheme a defense to mask some of Brickus’ deficiencies. At the very least the esteemed Ken Pomeroy believes in the Villanova defense, ranking the Wildcats the 14th best defense in the country, and even Torvik, who is not quite as high on Villanova as KenPom has the ‘cats clocking in as the 30th best defense preseason. Even in last year’s disappointing campaign Villanova’s defense was solid, ranking 10th in Torvik’s ADJDE and 13th in KenPom’s AdjD. Going back to his year at Fordham, his defense ranked 41st. Obviously those teams were not without their defensive flaws, so it’s entirely possible the much-maligned Neptune coaches his way around Brickus’ defensive limitations.

Brickus is joined in a surprisingly thin backcourt by Miami (Fl) transfer, Senior Wooga Poplar, 247 Sports’ 17th ranked transfer this year. On top of being a first-team member of any All-Name Team, Poplar is a proven commodity at the high major level, playing in and starting 29 games last season for Jim Larranaga’s disappointing Hurricanes squad, posting 13.1/4.8/2.1 on 42.6/38.5/86.4 shooting in 31 mpg. He was also a starter 2 years ago during Miami’s Final Four run, posting 8.4/3.3/1.5 in 23.5 minutes, on 47/37.5/86.7. His career eFG is 52.7%. Poplar’s size, strength and length also give him a pretty high floor on the defensive end, and he’s a really good on-ball defender. But the real headline here is his offense. Poplar projects to be ‘nova’s second leading scorer behind Eric Dixon. When you look for a “big 3” of scorers, it’s quite possible the Wildcats have theirs in Brickus, Poplar and Dixon.

As mentioned, the ‘nova backcourt is surprisingly thin, and is rounded out by sophomore transfer Tyler Perkins and Bulgarian freshman Aleksander Gavalyugov. Like his backcourt mate Brickus, Perkins joins the Wildcats from a fellow Big 5 school, in this case UPenn. Perkins was excellent as a freshman for the Quakers, and in most years could’ve been the Ivy League Rookie of the year had it not been for now-Georgetown guard Malik Mack’s excellent year at Harvard. Perkins posted 13.7/5.3/1.9 on 39.1/34.7/76.5, for an eFG of 46.6% in 29.8 mpg. However, as we saw last year at St. John’s, even experienced Ivy Legue ballers can struggle to make the jump to the BIG East. It took Jordan Dingle and Chris Ledlum 2/3rds of a season to really hit their stride. While Perkins will definitely have a role in the backcourt this season, I don’t think I would expect a high-level of production from him. However, he is a very nice building block piece for the next 2 seasons.

Gavalyugov is a 6’2” freshman out of Bulgaria. An NBA Gloval Academy product, Gavalyugov his a really good shooter, and comes in with substantial U18 Eurobasket experience. He’s also very crafty in the lane, using a variety of moves and spins to shake opponents free. He only needs a little bit of space to get his shot up, and has excellent quickness. At least one member of r/NBA_Draft thinks he’s a potential NBA player one day, and someone to keep an eye on. If his shooting is as advertised, he’ll definitely be able to carve out a role, but the learning curve can be steep with Euros.

In the front court transfer Enoch Boakye figures to carve out his fair share of minutes, particularly if Neptune is interested in getting minutes at the 4 for Eric Dixon. Boakye was a highly-touted recruit, ranking 31st in the class of 2021. Unfortunately for Mr. Boakye he made a fatal career era by committing to play for the other Hurley at Arizona St. Boakye played 50 games across 2 seasons in Tempe, where he posted an abysmal 1.5 & 2.4, with 1.2 blocks.

Last year the journeyman center found his way to Fresno State, where he posted 7.5 & 7.7, plus 2 blocks per game. He finally started to show why he was so highly touted out of HS. Depending on just how much they can get out of Boakye, he’s either a starter at the 5 alongside Dixon’s 4, or he’s the chief back up to Dixon be it with Dixon on the bench or Dixon playing some 4. For what it’s worth, with Dixon serving a suspension for participating in the Portsmouth invitational, Boakye started and played 27 minutes at center.

The Wildcats also add Kris Parker, a redshirt freshman out of Alabama. Kris was a 4* recruit coming out of high school, good for 99th in the Class of 2023. He red-shirted for Alabama last season. Parker is a bit of a wild card here. If he lives up to his impact he could be a really nice rotation player this season. If he does not, he could be a multi-year project , and frankly Neptune might not have enough time.

The wing and front court is rounded out by freshmen Josiah Moseley, Matthew Hodge, and Malcolm Thomas. From most likely to make an impact to least likely:

Josiah Moseley is a 6’6” 205 lbs forward from Texas. He’s a 4* ranked 73rd in 247’s class of 2024 composite rankings. Moseley is likely to be the primary back up to Jordan Longino at the 3. However, if Longino should struggle, Moseley will certainly have the opportunity to earn more minutes. In Villanova’s first game—a 75-63 victory over Lafayette without Eric Dixon—Moseley was the only freshman to crack the rotation, going 17 minutes and shooting a perfect 5-5 from the field for 10 points.

Matthew Hodge is a New Jersey forward ranked 82nd in the class of 2024. The Burner Ball depth charts have him as the starter at the 4. That does not feel right to me. As mentioned, I think Villanova plays a little larger this year with Dixon 4, at times, but when they play small with Dixon at the 5, Hodge can be the guy at 4, as Longino is simply not tall enough for the 4.

Malcolm Thomas was a 3* recruit, no. 206 in the class of 2024. He’s a 6’8” forward. He’s likely to be buried on the front court depth chart, and not likely to see regular minutes.

The Optimist’s Take: Kyle Neptune realizes he’s not Jay, but he can actually coach and he finally spreads his wings and hits his coaching stride as his own man, not “Jay Wright’s assistant.” The line-up meshes quickly. What appears like it will be a tight 8-man rotation—at least early in the year (Boakye, Dixon, Longino, Poplar, Brickus, Tyler Perkins, Jsoiah Moseley and Nnanna Njoku)—stays healthy and responds to Neptune’s coaching. Guys like Aleksander Gavalyugo and Kris Parker and Matthew Hodge develop into rotation pieces as the year drags on, giving ‘nova depth when it will need it most.

If Neptune’s coaching is on point, that is an 8-man rotation that can make the tournament. This roster isn’t as talented as last year’s ‘nova roster, but it is possible they have better results.

The Hater’s Take: Nova got absolutely abused in the paint last year. They ranked in the 5th percentile in both points in the paint and 2nd chance points per game. They managed only 2.4 blocks per game, while opponents scored 25.5 paint points per game, good for 96th percentile. All stats from CBB Analytics. Opponents meanwhile were in the 96th percentile in paint points and 88th percentile in 2nd chance points. Opponents posted 4 blocks per game to ‘nova’s 2.4.

Nova did little to truly address the issue. The Wildcats brought in Enoch Boayke from Fresno State, who grabbed 7.7 boards in just 22.7 mpg, good for 13.6 per 40. He can also provide some rim protection, putting up 1.2 blocks per game last year, 2.1 per40. However, I think there is definitely concern looking at the drop-off last season, as Boakye struggled against top tier competition, watching his O-Rating plummet from 104.7 to 90.1 and is OR% fall from 12.7 to 6.0. So you have to wonder how he can handle big men at this level. He had 3 or more fouls in 15/28 games last year, meaning foul trouble can be an issue for Boayke. With the lack of experienced depth in the front court, Boakye foul trouble will be a tough blow to ‘nova.

Meanwhile the defense struggles as guys like Brickus and Perkins are overmatched, the freshmen make freshmen mistakes, and Longino continues to play poor defense. In this scenario, Villanova would find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble come March.

Fan Pulse:

Putting on a brave face. Boldly attempting to cheer on another season of Kyle Neptune, even as it seems he may be a dead man walking. Talking themselves into a 5’9” point guard leading the way in the Big East. Definitely did not donate $50,000 on 1842 this year since Neptune is still the coach.

Bottom Line: This roster is significantly less talented than last year’s ‘nova squad. 3 seasons into his coaching career and Kyle Neptune has appeared to be going in the wrong direction. Do I think Jay Wright gets this team to an 8 or 9 seed? Almost certainly. Do I trust Kyle Neptune to do the same? No. I wouldn’t trust Neptune to babysit my pet rock based on his coaching skills.

Prediction: 17-14 (8-12), 7th place