The Kyle Neptune Problem
Frankly, my heart feels for Kyle Neptune. The man has been dealt a shit hand. However, he’s also done himself no favors. It feels like time for ‘nova to move on from Kyle Neptune. The questions are “when?” and “how?”
In the sympathy category, Neptune was brought in very late in the cycle his first year, being hired on April 20, 2022, and Jay Wright, for all his great success, did not leave much of an NIL infrastructure behind for Neptune to work with, which makes sense when you consider that NIL is part of the reason Jay retired in the first place.
When he was hired, the portal had already been open for weeks. Some kids had even committed to new schools already. He didn’t pull a single player from the portal, and was left to roll with what was on the roster, and the incoming freshmen class that he managed to hold together (no doubt with an assist from Wright).
Additionally, the man has to toil in the incredibly long shadow of Jay Wright, the greatest coach in program history, and one of the greatest coaches of all-time.
Year 1 - Give the Man a Pass!
While that might not seem great, it was a team coming off a Final Four, returning Justin Moore, Eric Dixon, Jermaine Samuels, Caleb Daniels, Jordan Longino, and Brandon Slater. To that core Neptune kept together a freshmen class ranked 19th in the country per 247, containing future NBA player Cam Whitmore (11), Mark Armstrong (62), and Brendan Hausen (136). Hausen was not ready to contribute meaningfully as a freshman, and frankly neither was Armstrong. Unfortunately for Neptune, when Moore went down for the season 13 games in, Armstrong was pressed into service as the lead guard. It did not go well, averaging 22 MPG, 1.2 assists, a 1-to-1 assist to turnover ratio, and 5.7 ppg.
Nova struggled Neptune’s first year, but still finished 17-17 (10-10), 6th in the Big East. It was a “pass” year for Neptune between the late start and the Moore injury, a lackluster performance could be forgiven, even despite bad losses to Temple and Portland when at full strength early in the year.
Neptune channeling the frustrations of Kevin McCallister all ‘nova nation during last year’s roller coaster season.
Year 2 - Locked and Loaded and Strapped In for the Roller Coaster
What followed that summer was a portal spending spree. Villanova spent the season getting its NIL in-order, and Neptune took full advantage come April. He brought in big, athletic guard TJ Bamba from Wazzou, he brought in Tyler Burton from Richmond—one of the most sought after players in the portal, Hakim Hart—a proven guard from Maryland, and most-puzzlingly Lance Ware—a C/F who could barely get off the floor at Kentucky in 3 seasons.
On paper, the team looked ready to head back to the NCAAT. There was optimism on the main line. Nova wasted no time taking a huge steamy dump all over said optimism. A week into the season they lost by 4 to Penn in the Palestra. However, they followed that up with 4 straight wins against power conference opponents in the top 80 of KenPom, en route to winning the Battle 4 Atlantis—vs. Maryland (62), Texas Tech (31), UNC (9), and Memphis (76). It looked like the Penn game was a distant memory. A small bump on the road to the promised land.
The flight home from Atlantis must have taken a wrong turn somewhere along the way. Five days after beating Memphis to win the Battle, Villanova dropped a home game at the Finn to the other SJU (99) 78-65. The loss guaranteed Villanova would be in the 5th/6th place game versus Drexel (126) in the Big5. Villanova also lost to Drexel on ‘nova’s secondary home floor, the Wells Fargo Center (a game that inexplicably is a “neutral” site in the eyes of the NCAA, despite SJU’s BET games being counted as “home” games by the NCAA. Make it make sense).
At that point the resume damage was done, and it would take a herculean effort in conference play to get back. But the roller coaster had a couple more bumps. Nova beat a bad UCLA squad at home to round out their OOC schedule. They followed that up by opening Big East play with an overtime victory over Creighton (11) in Omaha, once again inspiring hope—this time that ‘nova could pull off the massive conference season it needed to get back to the tournament. The followed-up with a routine road victory over DePaul (304) and a 1-point home victory over Xavier (56).
Nova proceeded to lose 7 of its next 9, the lone wins being vs. DePaul and vs. Providence (59), both at home. They did come within a point of a home victory over UConn, but followed that up by getting humiliated by 20 points in MSG vs. St. John’s. They also started the 7-of-9 streak with an embarrassing loss at home to St. John’s, a 10-pt L that didn’t feel remotely that close (I would know, I was there), with St. John’s keeping ‘nova at bay the entire game, goign wire-to-wire.
And THAT 7-of-9 stretch was all she wrote wrote. At 12-11 (5-7) ‘nova needed to win out or win the BET to make the dance. Neither of which occurred.
Player Regression: A Theme That Generates Depression
Who is that masked man?! Certainly not the TJ Bamba Wazzou and Oregon Ducks fans know!
This background is important to set the stage, but also to tell the story of one of the worst aspects of Neptune’s tenure: player regression. It has been seen almost across the board with transfers. Tyler Burton went from 19 ppg to 7.5, and eFG from 50.9% to 48.5%. The A10 to the Big East is a jump, no doubt, but he still should’ve averaged double digits.
TJ Bamba went from 15.8 ppg to 10, but his eFG actually improved, bringing him from 49.6% to 51.5%, the problem? His usage dropped off from 27.5% at Wazzou to 20.7%, he played 32.2 mpg at Wazzou to 28 on the Main Line, and he went from 12.6 FGA at Wazzou to 8 at ‘nova. Watching the Wildcats last year I found myself flabbergasted that they were not using TJ Bamba—a proven high major scoring threat—more than they were. And Bamba is right back at it this year, starting all 3 games for the Oregon Ducks, and posting 12 ppg in just 24.7 mpg, with a slightly improved 52% eFG.
Hakim Hart, another proven high major player, suffered a similar fate, going from 32 mpg to 22 mpg from Maryland to ‘nova, and going from 11.4 ppg to 6.3 ppg.
The odd thing is, this only seems to happen to transfers. Dixon took a jump in year 1 of Neptune, stayed flat year 2, and looks like the best version of himself so far in this young season. Before his injury, Justin Moore looked like his old self for 13 games under Neptune. Caleb Daniels improved in year 1 of Neptune. Brandon Slater was basically the same under Neptune. And Jordan Longino suddenly seems to be closer to what ‘nova fans thought they were getting this season than he was the previous 3 years.
While it might be expected that guys who came up for a year or 2 under Jay might have a leg up on developing, it held true for the 2 freshmen that only played for Neptune as well. Mark Armstrong progressed slightly, before bouncing for the G-League. Brendan Hausen improved slightly year 1 to year 2 before bouncing for K-State where he’s averaging 19.5 ppg through 3 games on 55.6% from deep. Unsustainable? Sure. But clearly Hausen is a mixed bag in that he both progressed a bit under Neptune, but Neptune never unlocked his full potential.
This dichotomy is very interesting in that there were certainly some rumblings that Neptune didn’t have as much control over the transfer process as you’d have expected, with NIL funders and boosters driving the bus. That would explain the difference between the team on paper and the middling results.
It will be interesting to see what happens with this years less-talented transfer class. Can Kyle coach them up, or will we see more regression? Is this less-heralded transfer class a better fit for Neptune than last year’s high-caliber class? Early returns are not promising.
However, if by some miracle Kyle Neptune is retained, or if he finds another job at a lower level, it might be worth considering a modified Shaka Smart approach. I think “no transfers ever” is a bit extreme, but if Neptune focuses on bringing in and developing top high school recruits, and supplements with one or 2 transfer that fit the roster, it’s possible he can improve his results. Of course, being retained or getting another job are HUGE “ifs” for Neptune.
Year 3 - Cue The Doors: “ This is the End”?
This is the end
Beautiful friend
This is the end
My only friend, the end
It certainly feels like the end and we’re only 4 games in. The Wildcats started out with a shaky win over Lafayette by 12, a deficit that belies the nip-and-tuck nature of this game, which was a 1-point battle at halftime, and was only a 6 point game with 5:30 to play.
Neptune’s squad followed that up with a home loss to Columbia by 10 in the Finn. Columbia felt like they got any look they wanted, and hung 90 on Nova. Two games later, ‘nova went on the road across town and lost to the other SJU by 7, practically guaranteeing that ‘nova will not win the Big5.
In Jay Wright’s tenure Villanova won at least a share of the Big5 title in the old round robin format 13 of the 18 seasons (11 outright) it was contested (canceled in 2020-21 for COVID), including 5 straight from 2013 through 2017, and 7 of his last 8. Neptune won a share of the Big 5 his first season, and finished 6th in the Big5 last season. He likely will not win again this season.
In a vacuum, neither losing to no. 158 in KenPom nor no. 103 is unforgivable. But we do not exist in vacuums, we exist in the context of all that has come before. In this case, it’s a 3-5 record in Big 5 games. It’s losing to 2 inferior opponents in 3 games. It’s not making a tournament his first 2 seasons. It’s all of the following losses since taking over:
at Temple (120)
Portland (N) (157)
at DePaul (135)
at Buttler (119)
at Penn (213)
vs. the other SJU (99)
vs. Drexel (126)
vs. Columbia (158)
vs. the other SJU, again (103)
You simply cannot lose that many bad games as a high major team in a 3-year span.
It also feels like, from the outside, NIL donors pulled back some of their NIL dollars this past off-season, given how little high-level talent ‘nova brought in, and the fact that half of it came from their own backyard.
Wooga Poplar is the only proven high-major player on this roster. Jhamir Brickus is an undersized PG from La Salle. He can definitely ball, but his defense leaves much to be desired (as does Poplar’s for that matter). Tyler Perkins also moved from the city out to the main line suburbs, transferring from Penn to ‘nova. Perkins played forward at Penn, but is being asked to play as a 2-guard. He definitely has the shot for it, but might not be ready to play at this level or defend Big East guards.
To make matters worse, Neptune seems to be saying all the wrong things.
What Went Wrong?
On top of the lack of talent this season (a new problem, as the last 2 rosters were plenty talented), I think it’s clear Kyle was simply not ready for a high major coaching gig. There’s always the instinct to keep things “in-house” at successful programs, but the Jay Wright coaching tree is not very strong, and Neptune was one of the only coaches in the family that could credibly be considered. Pat Chambers had failed out at Penn State, Speedy Claxton may have been a better hire, but I don’t think he was fully viewed as “in the family,” since he never played or coached at ‘nova. Tom Pecora was off in the wilderness as Quinnipiac’s assistant head coach after failing at Fordham. Urgo had yet to be a head coach. So that really left Kyle as the only possible “in-house” candidate. Further complicating matters was that Jay Wright screwed ‘nova with is late resignation, leaving limited outside options, and certainly none with a marquee name.
The look says it all…
At the time, Kyle’s resume consisted of being Jay’s assistant and one season at Fordham where he took them from laughingstock A10 basement dweller with KenPom’s of 292, 260, 245, and 310 in the 4 years before he arrived, to a respectable middle-of-the-pack A10 side with a KenPom of 173. Not an amazing turnaround by any stretch, but it was still a very nice coaching job by Neptune. The calling card of that Fordham team was its defense, ranking 41st in KenPom AdjD. The offense was abysmal, clocking in at 321st. At ‘nova his teams have been all over, currently ranking 93 in AdjD after finishing 13th last season, and the AdjO ranks 37 currently. Last year the offense ranked 87th.
On the offensive end turnovers have been killer, with ‘nova sporting a 18.4% TO%, good for 196th in the country, and almost as bad as Neptune’s 139th ranked offense, which came in at 18.9%. On the defensive end, this year’s team is allowing opponents to shoot 35.4% from 3, 238th in the country, while allowing opponents to shoot 43% of their shots from deep. They also allow teams to really work the ball around, as they’re loathe to press or trap ball handlers in the half court, allowing an assist percentage of 65%, 327th in the nation. Similarly, they’re just 259th in the country in TO% defense for much the same reason.
One last note, Jay Wright’s later teams were notoriously slow. They kept the game manageable, using a slow pace, IQ, and beautiful, position-less basketball to frequently make up for talent deficits. It became such a thing that it’s hard to remember his teams ever playing differently. The slow pace allowed the IQ and coaching to shine through as his players patiently broke down a defense, hunting for a good shot.
Jay Wright teams ranked slower than 200th in KenPom AdjTempo won 1 of his 2 national championships, made another F4, another S16, another tournament berth, and had ‘nova poised to do damage as a 2/3 seed in 2020 before the world shut down. However, Jay knew how to play to his personnel. In 2017-18 Jay won his 2nd national championship with the number 1 offense in the country, and the played at the 150th tempo in the country. That was bar none Jay’s most talented roster, featuring future NBA stars Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges, as well as short-lived NBA players and current European pros Omari Spellman and Eric Paschall, European pro Phil Booth and of course NBA player, and the sixth man of ‘nova’s championship team, the Big Ragu himself, Donte Divincenzo (side note, Donte was 6 years old growing up in Newark, Delaware when I was a freshman in college there. Fuck I’m old.).
In other words, that a fuck ton of talent. And because there was so much talent, Jay let the reins go loose a bit, allowing his talent to play a little faster, but under control, allowing the pure unadulterated talent of that roster carry the day.
On the flip side, Kyle’s Fordham team played at the 139th pace in the country, but again, the offense was atrocious. Whether that offense scared Neptune, or whether he got back to Villanova and thought “I gotta do it Jay’s way,” all 3 of his teams at ‘nova have ranked sub-300 in tempo. That is a snails pace. That is the slowest Tony Bennett (RIP) Virginia teams. When he had as much talent has he had the first two years, it might have behooved him to quicken the pace just a little bit, and allow his offensive studs to go to work. Slow games make it easy for plucky underdogs to swing upsets. If I only have to be better than you across 100 possessions, that’s a much smaller sample size, and will be more prone to variance than 120 possessions or 140 possessions (2 average paced teams) or 160 possessions.
Can you play slow and be successful? Of course, Jay Wright and Tony Bennett did it to great success. But they both had highly experienced teams. Jay’s first national championship team started 4 juniors who had played all 3 years at ‘nova (a different era). Tony Bennet’s national championship team was eerily similar, with a rotation that included 1 senior, 4 juniors, 2 sophomores and 1 freshman. All but 1 of the upperclassmen was a transfer, the rest played multiple years under Bennet.
In the transfer portal age, when you have a talented roster, it is probably best to play the numbers, and at least play to an average pace. If a team is going to upset you, at least make them prove it over a larger sample size. Playing slow feeds right into Cinderella’s hands.
Given the shortcomings with his ‘nova squad, and the fact that he seems to just be trying to emulate Jay Wright instead of putting his own coaching stamp on the team, Kyle Neptune could have used a few more years at Fordham to hone his craft and develop his own style of play. Instead, Jay and ‘nova threw him out of the frying pan and into the fire, giving him a promotion he was not ready for. He was almost set up to fail. Rather than try to carve out his style as a coach, he reverted to the familiar “Nova Way,” and it has been an abject failure.
Many people called for Neptune’s head last season. Frankly, I was one of them (though “call” probably too much, since I really had no dog in the fight, but I felt they should’ve fired him). Four games into 2024-25, and it is clear that those who called for Kyle’s head were right. He should have been let go.
When? and How? and Who?
This is the million dollar question. Personally, I am of the belief that firing an abysmal coach mid-season is the correct move. MAYBE you can salvage something a la Ohio State with Jake Diebler last year, but at the very least you help prevent apathy in the fan base by send the clear, unwavering message that “we hear you, this is unacceptable and we’re not going to tolerate it,” and you give yourself all the time in the world to fully evaluate potential hires, initiate back channels, and develop a clear strategy for the coaching search in March. So if it were me, I’d fire him yesterday. But certainly Saturday at the latest, after they lose to Bennett-less UVa in Baltimore on Friday.
Of course it’s not me, in fact it’s technically no body at this time, as Villanova doesn’t have an athletic director at the moment, not even on an interim basis. Whether the president of the university knows, cares, or is likely to do anything about it mid-season is a question better directed to ‘nova folks who know the inner workings of the school better than I do. However, I see no reason why the president couldn’t step in and make the call. This season has already been embarrassing to the public face of your university (the program, not Neptune), and it may only get worse. Firing Neptune at least stops the damage to the brand, as everyone will expect an embarrassment with an interim head coach.
Kyle Neptune and future Villanova Interim Head Coach Jerold Taylor Wright, Jr. in happier times.
Alternatively, they don’t even have to go the usual route and promote an assistant to head coach…I know a certain two-time national championship winning coach who is sitting at home most days, except the handful of days each month he’s broadcasting. That’s right…”interim head coach Jay Wright!”
I know, it sounds crazy, but as I said above, the last 2 seasons one couldn’t help but wonder “what if Jay had this team?” That question feels less poignant with this less talented roster, but I still firmly believe that if you gave Jay the reins tomorrow, he could at least make the NCAAT. Does Jay say yes? Almost certainly not, but it’d be worth a call if you’re the decision maker at ‘nova.
Realistically, Villanova/Vanillanova/VillaNoFun is a small ‘c’ conservative institution, without an athletic director, who has their first black head coach on the sidelines. Firing him 4-5 games into the season would be a bad look on many levels, and is highly unlikely. There’s probably a slightly better chance that he gets fired mid-season, but I’d still put the odds pretty low.
The most likely outcome is a March firing following the BET. I’m not sure who would be on that short list. I would expect you absolutely have to go outside the family at this point. As well-regarded as Urgo is, he’s yet to prove anything, and just hiring another middling Fordham coach might cause a certain Twitter user to sue the university to get his parents’ past 1842 Day donations back...and also cause the rest of the fan base to revolt. The one name I saw floated by Chris—formerly of the Full40 podcast—was Speedy Claxton. Claxton’s Flying Dutchmen defeated Seton Hall last night, and as Chris pointed out, Speedy might be sufficiently “in the family,” but also far enough removed from ‘nova that he brings a fresh perspective and fresh ideas to the main line. I’ll be honest, I was not that high on Speedy initially, but he had won me over by the end of his 2nd year. All he does is win and recruit above his head at Hofstra.
In any event, unfortunately for my ‘nova friends, I think things will get a whole lot worse before they get better. Godspeed.