UConn in Trouble?
Danny may be right that he’s the best coach in the country, but he may be crazy to think it makes a lick of difference this season.
I’ve been itching to write a requiem for UConn all season. Danny Hurley just makes them so damn unlikeable. I usually enjoy marveling at the way in which great teams play ball. The beautiful fluidity of a Jay Wright offense was a site to behold, even as they were kicking our ass every game. Watching a Rick Pitino defense stifle its opponents this season has been electric as someone who is a huge fan of defense. But I’ve taken no such joy from UConn’s beautiful offensive sets.
…and now I get to finally write their requiem. It will probably end as well for me as it did for ESPN when they requiemed our entire league, but that has never stopped me before!
The Current State of the Huskies
Let’s start with the numbers. Most hilariously: 25. That is UConn’s AP Top 25 ranking this week. They maintained a top-25 ranking despite losing to un-ranked Xavier and being taken to overtime at home by a Butler team squarely in the league’s bottom-3, 2 games behind the next teams (4-5 Georgetown and Providence).
There's a strong case that UConn is closer to the wrong side of the bubble than they are to top-25 status. Here’s the numbers:
NET: 36
Record: 14-6 (6-3)
Road Record: 4-2
SOS (NET): 53
OOC SOS (NET): 62
Predictive (Efficiency) Metrics
KenPom: 36
Torvik: 34
BPI: 18 (there’s a reason you don’t even hear this metric cited on ESPN, even though it’s their proprietary metric)
AVERAGE: 29.33 (35 if you remove BPI)
Resume Metrics
WAB: 45
KPI: 51
SOR: 42
AVERAGE: 46
ALL METRICS AVERAGE (incl. NET): 37.67
WINS OVER AT-LARGE TEAMS: 3-Baylor; Texas; Gonzaga (based teams currently in Bracket Matrix’s composite field)
Q1A: 2-0
Q1: 3-3
Q2: 4-2
Qs1&2: 7-5
Q3: 2-1
Q4: 5-0
Bracket Matrix: 8-seed
Franketology: 9-seed
They've fallen into the 30's in the 2 most important predictive metrics. More concerning, they've fallen to 51 in KPI, 45 in WAB and 42 in SOR, an average of 46. Think of it this way, the committee usually looks to resume metrics to set the field, before relying more on predictive metrics for seeding it. Doing the math, a 46 ranking would equate to a 12-seed, which would would put them as the first team out in my bracket (46th is currently my highest auto-bid: UC San Diego). That is dangerously close to the bubble for a team coming off back-to-back national championships. Of course the committee isn’t so rigid. We wouldn’t need the committee if we were going for such rigidity. But your resume metrics are your starting point. From there UConn is buoyed upward by the 3 Q1 wins and 3 wins over the at-large field, as well as its predictives average of 29.33.
UConn is playing with fire. A single inefficient loss could harm their resume metrics and predictives enough to drop them squarely on to the bubble.
Despite being dangerously close to the bubble, the UConn brand was still enough to dupe moronic AP voters. It's laughable to me that UConn is still in the top-25, and it gets even more laughable when you consider who they are in over. Receiving votes from most to least: Michigan, Maryland, Utah State, Clemson, Arizona, St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, Texas. You can make a case for each of these to be 25th, with the exception of St. Mary’s, who I will single out because they lack a single Q1 win or a win over the field. I’d suspect UConn will fall out unless they win in Milwaukee Saturday, while Maryland, Michigan and/or Arizona move in come next Monday.
Let’s take a little closer look at the top-2 from that list. First team out of the AP Top 25 is Michigan. Michigan has 2 Q1A wins like UConn, 3 Q1 wins, like UConn, UConn gets the slight edge for having 3 wins over the at-large field, versus just 2 for Michigan. The metrics point squarely to Michigan, sporting a 20.0 predictives average versus a 24.67 metrics average, 9 and 22 spots better than UConn. Michigan, like UConn, took its worst loss against a bad high major: Minnesota, 90th in KenPom. Michigan has been up and down the last couple weeks, but that speaks more to the reactionary nature of AP Poll voters. If you line these 2 resumes up without any dates, Michigan is the clear better resume. Franketology and Bracket Matrix both put Michigan on the 5-seed line.
At 27th, we have Maryland. Maryland has a 30.67 resume average and an 18.33 predictives average, 16 and 11 spots better than UConn, respectively. They're riding a 3-game win streak, beating Nebraska at home before beating Illinois on the road by 21 in a statement game, and backing that up with another road W at Indiana by 1. They now have 3 Q1 wins versus no bad losses. They also have 3 wins against the field, like UConn. Their "worst" loss is a road loss at 96 KenPom Washington, which aligns with UConn’s loss to Colorado.
Franketology has the Terrapins on the 5-seed line, while Bracket Matrix currently has them as a 9-seed. Important to note because of update cycles and the time it takes the Matrix’s panel of Bracketologists to absorb new data, BracketMatrix tends to be a trailing indicator for teams on the rise like Maryland, as well as for teams on the fall (like UNC). I suspect they’ll be moving up 2-3 seed lines Monday barring a bad loss tomorrow versus Wisconsin. Even a narrow loss at home probably sees them continuing to climb. It’s absolutely insane to think a team with an 18 predictives average and a road win by 21 at KenPom no. 21 Illinois, and a win over KenPom 32 UCLA and 28 Ohio St. at home is somehow not a top-25 team. They’d have absolutely gotten my vote for the AP Top-25. I’m sure my vote is coming any season now…lol.
Since winning at DePaul, UConn has played .500 ball losing on the road to Villanova and X and at home to Creighton, while winning home games vs. PC and Butler. It's lone road Big East win in this stretch was at Georgetown. While Georgetown has been much improved this year, they’re not an NCAAT team.
It's worth noting that UConn has not been good on the road, beating Butler by just 4, falling at Villanova and at X, and looking vulnerable winning by 13 versus a game Blue Demons side. They’ve also struggled to beat the rest of the top 6 teams in the Big East (Marq., SJU, Creighton, X, Villanova), going just 1-3 in 4 games so far, and needing overtime to beat Xavier at home, a game that pre-dates the McNeeley injury.
Having 3 conference losses, while still having to face SJU and Marquette twice each, and make the trip to Omaha, is not an enviable position. Per KenPom, the Huskies have played the 9th toughest conference schedule to date. Notably the easiest conference schedules belong to Marquette and SJU. These 3 teams have yet to play each other, so it makes sense. But the difference here is Marquette and SJU have suffered 1 loss apiece versus their soft schedules. UConn has suffered 3. KenPom and Torvik both project UConn to go 7-4 the rest of the way, resulting in a 13-7 conference record, which projects to 4th place. A far cry from the heights of the last 2 years.
Maybe it’s just the McNeeley factor. UConn did look like it had turned the corner and figured it out before the McNeeley injury, and the losses in question came by 2, 5 and 4 points. So it is entirely possible McNeeley is the reason, in which case I’ll look like an idiot for writing this column.
What’s Wrong With UConn?
A true icon of sport and screen.
This season is Danny Hurley’s “I’m Keith Hernandez” moment. For those unclear, this is a reference to a Seinfeld episode, The Boyfriend, in which Jerry befriends Met legend Keith Hernandez, playing a fictionalized version of himself. The iconic episode includes many legendary Seinfeld bits such as Vandelay Industries, Jerry breaking up with Keith, and Newman and Kramer attempting to get Keith Hernandez to apologize for spitting on them over a decade earlier (SPOILER ALERT: it wasn’t Keith).
For our purposes though, the important part is that Hernandez would use the line “I’m Keith Hernandez” as a justification for any action, or as a statement that would bend the world to his whims. It was a hilarious caricature of the oblivious, self-absorbed jock.
Danny Hurley is in his “I’m Keith Hernandez” season. And you might say “come on Frank, Danny is a back-to-back national champion, he knows what it takes to win and isn’t resting on his laurels.” To which I’d reply…does he? Are you sure he does? Because he effectively said “I’m Danny fucking Hurley” the other day…screaming at Nate Farrell “[d]on’t turn your back on me, I’m the best coach in the fucking sport.” Fuck Nate Farrell, he probably deserved it, but fuck Hurley too.
True though it may be at this moment—that Hurley is the best coach in the country right now—it’s definitely a flash of Hurley’s arrogance shining through. It’s also a slap in the face to the many legendary coaches with resumes as good as Hurley’s, who are still in the game, Rick Pitino chief among them. Hurley said as much when asked in a recent interview about regretting the “best coach in the country comment” and rather than take a moment to be even slightly humble, to perhaps apologize to the official for letting his temper get the best him, and admitting that he doesn’t deserve special treatment because of his success, he took the time to state that he was only embarrassed to face his fellow coaches who he respects and admires. Arrogance. Hubris…Pride. It always comes before the fall.
In my humble opinion it’s part of what doomed this UConn season from the start: confidence and ability giving way to pride and hubris. Doomed of course being a relative term. Huskies should still make the tournament, but they’re a far cry from the heights of the last 2 years. This is not your older brother’s UConn Huskies.
Let’s recap what has occurred for the Huskies since roughly April 1 of 2023:
Danny Hurley, Adama Sanogo, and Andre Jackson, lead the Huskies to their first national title in 9 years, with assistance from a gawky freshman 7-footer named Donovan Clingan, sharp-shooting freshman Alex Karaban, and PG-in-waiting Tristen Newton.
The Huskies lose Sanogo, Jordan Hawkins, and junior guard Andre Jackson to the NBA.
The Huskies lose sharpshooter Joey Calcaterra to graduation, and end-of-rotation piece Nahiem Alleyne to the transfer portal.
This left the Huskies with: Tristen Newton, Alex Karaban, Donovan Clingan, Hassan Diarra, and Samson Johnson as potential contributors in 2023-24.
Newton was an 18-ppg scorer in the AAC and a top-50 transfer who happily took a smaller role in year one at UConn, and was always poised to re-find that form in a larger role in year 2. Clingan was a top-60 prospect in the 247 Composite Ranking, and spent a year developing behind Sanogo, a heady big who played larger than his frame would indicate. Karaban was the 4th leading scorer on the team behind Sanogo, Hawkins and Newton.
In other words, there was reason to believe these 3 would step up in a big way in year 2.
However, that didn’t stop Danny from hitting the trail, adding sharp-shooting guard Cam Spencer from Rutgers, top-10 freshman Stephon Castle, and top-70 recruits Solo Ball and Jaylin Stewart.
Hurley pressed all the right buttons:
Newton stepped into the lead guard role perfectly, earning All-American honors, slashing 15.1/6.6/6.2
Spencer provided grit, energy, shooting pop, and secondary ball handling
Clingan was ready to be the guy inside, posting 13/7.4/1.5, and adding in 2.5 blocks for good measure
Karaban improved and became the 3rd leading scorer with an eFG of 60%.
Castle, as expected of a top pick, was the 5th leading scorer, and came into his own as the back-up PG as the season wore on.
The Huskies go on to win back-to-back national titles, losing only 3 times all season, only 1 of which came to a non-Big East team (their only loss to a non-Big East team in either of their 2 title runs). They were a wrecking ball.
The roster once again loses several key players with Newton, Spencer, Clingan and Castle all turning pro. The good news? No one of significance hit the transfer portal
Hurley turned down the Lakers job with an eye towards a 3rd title
The Huskies restocked at a significantly lower rate than years past. Danny added 1 impact freshman in Liam McNeely, as well as underachieving center Taris Reed from the portal by way of Michigan, and Aidan Mahaney from the portal by way of St. Mary’s (CA).
To date, this has not panned out this season. In year’s past UConn had elite athletic players that could guard multiple positions, and could bottle up their men one-on-one. They also always had clear stars. This year’s defense is an embarrassment for a team which such lofty expectations. The previous 2 seasons, UConn had the 4th best and 7th best defenses in the country per KenPom. This year’s defense ranks 130th. Karaban, Mahaney, Stewart, Ball, McNeeley, and Diarra all have D-Ratings over 120 ppg (100 is average, higher is worse). Mahaney’s DBPM is -1.5, an incredibly difficult feat on a team that still wins far more than it loses.
For comparison, the 2023-24 juggernaut did not have a single player who played more than 12 mpg, that had a D-Rating over 100. The highest regular player was Steph Castle at 99.3. The worst DBPM among regulars was Karaban’s 3.1. DBPM is cumulative, so it’s tough to compare, but it looks like Karaban’s DBPM should finish around that 3.0 mark, but his D-Rating has taken a significant drop-off from 99 last year to 107 this year.
Let’s just compare the rotations:
Starters (2023->2024->2025)
Danny Hurley, mouth agape, wondering where all his talent went…
C: Sanogo->Clingan->Johnson
F: Karaban->Karaban->Karaban
G/F: Hawkins->Spencer->McNeeley
SG: Newton->Castle->Ball
PG: Jackson->Newton->Diarra
Bench
C: Clingan->Johnson->Reed
F: Calcaterra->Stewart->Stewart
G: Alleyne->Ball->Ross
G: Diarra->Diarra->Mahaney
For my money, this is clearly the least talented team of the 3. The staff once again hit on a freshman who is able to contribute immediately (and in a big way), but the portal additions leave much to be desired. Mahaney has been putrid defensively, as has the whole team. Mahaney looks lost on that side of the ball, and sports a D-Rating of 113.2 and a DBPM of -1.5. Offensively he’s contributed just 5 ppg on 38.7% from the field. Reed was a bit better earlier in the year, but in conference play Johnson has been a bit better, but the two players are basically splitting the center minutes evenly. A far cry from the dominant front court players UConn saw in the first 2 years of this run.
The lack of high quality defensive perimeter players, as well as the lack of an elite front court has truly hampered UConn defensively, where they rank 130th in defense nationally per KenPom—only DePaul (177) and Villanova (183) are worse. The lack of perimeter defense is particularly glaring. The 3-pt % and rank, as well as their shooting percentage versus UConn of the 6 teams UConn lost to:
Memphis - 6th, 39.5%, 46.7% (14/30)
Colorado - 115th, 34.8, 38.7% (12/31)
Dayton - 53rd, 36.7%, 27.6% (8/29)
Villanova - 3rd, 40.0% (38.4% in conference, best in conference), 37% (10/27)
Creighton - 103rd, 35% (37.2% in conference, 2nd), 31.6% (6/19)
Xavier - 20th, 38.3% (37% in conference, 3rd), 30% (15/50 across 2 games)
In other words, UConn struggles with teams that can shoot from deep. They have not yet lost to a single team that shoots better than 38% on the season. Lest you think this some sort of weird anomaly, or potentially the fact that good teams tend to shoot better, UConn lost to the 71st-ranked offense in the country, Xavier, the 20th ranked 3-pt shooting team in the country. Providence’s offense is rated just 0.3 PPP rose than X, good for 75th in the country, but Providence only shoots at a 34.2% clip. UConn beat Providence. So it seems the issue is teams that shoot, and not just that they’ve faced quality offenses.
The damnedest thing about it is that it seemed on paper this team was likely to struggle. UConn got every benefit of the doubt with preseason predictions, but you definitely heard some hushed caveats about how the analyst thought they would take a step back but he was giving them the benefit of the doubt, particularly because Hurley clearly believed that the guys at the bottom of the rotation last year could step in and contribute. Analysts gave Hurley the benefit of the doubt.
But if you dig in, it was obvious to most that Karaban could not be the focal point of the team on defense. He was never going to be the defensive stalwart his predecessors were. It is also a lot to ask a guy with a limited offensive skill set to be THE GUY for a team with UConn’s goals and expectations. He’s simply not on that level. He’s a very good player, not an elite player. Hurley believing Karaban could be the number 1 guy on a national championship caliber team was always wishful thinking, and a major “I’m Keith Hernandez” moment from Danny.
Similarly in the front court Hurley’s hubris got the best of him. He brought in Adama Sanogo in 2021, and after a good campaign for a freshman (7.3 & 4.8, 1 bpg in 17 mpg), Danny expected Sanogo to step into a larger role, and he did so seamlessly, posting 14.8 & 8.8, with 2 blocks per game in 29.2 mpg, and he jumped again his last year at UConn, posting 17.2 & 7.7, with 1 bpg in 26.5 mpg.
UConn also had Donovan Clingan the last 2 years. His freshman year was similar to Sanogo’s, posting 7 & 5.6 with 2 bpg in 13 mpg. He upped his game in year 2 posting 13 & 7.4, adding 1.5 assists and 2.5 bpg as a sophomore.
Meanwhile, in 3 years prior to this at UConn, Johnson gave little reason to believe he could step into an expanded role. Johnson had only played 4.6 mpg over his first 2 seasons at UConn. Last season saw his mins quadruple to 16 mpg. He got 5.4 points per game, 2.5 rebounds and a block against mostly second string competition. But Danny had developed big men before, and his hubris blinded him to Johnson’s and Reed’s limitations.
In other words, it was obvious a Johnson/Reed front court wasn’t up to the level of play UConn expects. While Taris is an admirable back-up, Danny had his back-up in Johnson. He needed an elite starting-caliber big man in the portal, and for whatever reason, he did not get it. Whether Danny couldn’t find a better big man in the portal or he honestly had enough hubris to believe that Johnson would morph into the guy the way Clingan had done before him. Since I find it hard to believe the back-to-back champs would struggle to attract and pay talent, I’m left to believe this is a result of Danny’s hubris.
Going into last season it was Clingan and Newton, and it turned out Spencer and Karaban were ready to contribute far greater than everyone had suspected going into the 2023-24 season. They were excellent 2nd tier players for an elite caliber team.
This season? Who were the stars supposed to be? And be it loyalty to his guys to a fault, or just a complete arrogance about his ability to turn Karaban into a star on a championship-caliber team or Samson Johnson into something far greater than he’s shown, Hurley came into the year with the 3rd banana from last year’s team trying to be the star. So far, this is mostly a failure viewed through the lens of national championship or bust, which has to be the goal and expectation coming off back-to-back championships. Karaban is not capable of carrying a team in that way. He’s certainly not the lock down defender that UConn has had on the perimeter in years past.
We discussed above whether it was simply the McNeeley injury. Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t. Maybe we’ll find out when McNeeley returns, or maybe it will be one of life’s eternal mysteries. Regardless, the fact that the back-to-back National Champions can be so completely derailed by the absence of a true freshman is troubling. Moreso when you consider the circumstances: UConn’s roster only has 12 guys. UConn definitely has a healthy NIL budget. If I were a UConn fan I’d be frustrated wondering what might have been this season, had the off-season gone better.
Danny still had bullets left in the chamber, as UConn has only 12 men on its roster and could have added a 13th scholarship player. I’m sure if Danny needed it he could’ve found the NIL bag to attract a talent better than Reed and a perimeter defensive stalwart. He did neither of those things, and now the 3-peat dream is dying a slow death.