Previewing the Last Big East-Big12 Challenge
Put up or shut up time for the Big East
I’m simultaneously irrationally excited about this edition of the Big East-Big12 Challenge, but also massively disappointed. The Big12 has decided it has no use for us anymore, I suppose the conference as a whole is of the same mind as Jerome Tang, who infamously said last year that his team gains nothing from playing the Big East. It’s not tough to see why: in 6 attempts last year vs. high majors KSU was just 3-3, with none of the wins coming against NCAAT teams (PC, ‘nova & LSU), and 2 losses coming to non-NCAAT teams as well (USC & Miami).
In other words, Jerome Tang, and the Big12, LOOOOOOOOOVVVVVEEEE them some cupcakes. It’s not just Tang, the entire Big12 loves to feast on some cupcakes, playing almost as many games against power conference opponents—52—as against competition 250 or below in KenPom—50. TCU (242), Iowa State (245), Cincinnati (308), BYU (315), Texas Tech (335), Kansas St. (342) and Utah (364) each have sub-240 KenPom OOC SOS. That group includes 3 of the top-6 (ISU, Cincy & TTU) teams in the league, 4 others with legitimate tournament expectations. Completely shameless.
Cupcake city. And yet, in games to date the Big12 is 2-0 versus the Big East:
New Big12 logo courtesy of Gemini AI.
Colo. v. UConn, 73-72 (N)
Baylor v. SJU, 99-98 (2OT)(N)
On paper, one matchup favored the Big East (Colo. v. UConn), and one was evenly matched (BU v. SJU), so the Big East should be 1-1 at worst in this incredibly small sample size.
Meanwhile, the Big East has not been not very good going 10-9 versus the other 4 power conferences. The results are not much better against what I will call the “Next 4",” i.e. the 4 top mid-major conferences: A10, AAC, MWC and WCC, going 5-5 versus teams in those conferences, and one of the wins is DePaul’s home win against A10 bottom-feeder Duquesne.
Needless to say, the Big East has some serious work remaining in out-of-conference play—which will shortly be a blog post of its own—but for now, suffice to say this final Big12 Challenge could be the most important to date for the Big East. So with that background, let’s preview the games:
Tuesday, December 3
Cincy at Villanova - on paper, a massive mismatch. Cincinnati comes 6-0, sitting 9th in KenPom. But a deeper dive into their resume indicates the record can be misleading, with their best win coming on the road at KP# 106, Georgia Tech. They have not played a single other opponent inside KenPom’s top-200 to date.
Despite Cincy is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, clocking in at 41.5%, good for 9th per KenPom. Villanova is also no slouch behind the arc, making 38.6% of its 3-pointers, good for 27th in the country per KenPom. To this point in the season, ‘nova has been more reliant on the 3, taking 46% of their FGA from behind the arc, compared to 37.7% for Cincy. Additionally, Cincy’s 3-point defense is 11th in the country per KenPom, allowing opponents to shoot a stingy 25.2% (obviously SOS has something to do with this). However, they haven’t faced an opponent that can shoot like ‘nova can. On the flip side, ‘nova’s defense has not been good, clocking in at 106th in Adj.D. per KenPom, and it only gets worse when you scroll down and see that they’re 288th in the country in 3-point defense, allowing 35.9% shooting from deep. Cincy also shoots elite from 2, scoring 60.9% of its baskets, combined with the 3-point shooting it makes for the 24th best offense in America, and the #1 eFG % in the country, 61.4%.
The only chance ‘nova has is if: A) Cincy are complete frauds that have feasted on cupcakes (metrics seem to indicate that is not the case); B) ‘nova shoots the lights out and Cincy struggles in the friendly confines of the Finn, which can be a tough gym to shoot it I’d imagine, given the unique roof lines and backdrops. Nova also needs to play aggressive defense. Cincy takes care of the ball (33rd in TO%), but they cannot hit foul shots to save their lives—Cincy is 352nd of 364 teams in FT%, shooting just 59.38% from the stripe. Does ‘nova have the depth to waste a lot of fouls this way? To play a hack-a-Bearcat defense? Probably not…but freshman Josiah Moseley and seniors Enoch Boakye and Nnanna Njoku are all low production front-court players who have 5 fouls each, so that’s 15 right there. Would love to see this deployed in the 2nd half. St. John’s legend Dillon Mitchell is a prime front court candidate for the hack-a-Bearcat strategy, as he’s shooting just 6.7% from the stripe (not a typo), going 1-15. Contributors Jizzle James (57.1%), Tyler Betsey (33.3%) also all shoot sub-60%, albeit in smaller sample sizes.
Prediction: BearWildcats in a romp, 78-61
Result: As predicted, a Wildcats romp. HUGE win for Villanova. I’m not saying they’re back in NCAAT contention just yet, but it’s a step in the right direction. It’s also big for the league, as it will help ‘nova metrically.
BYU at PC - The BYU Soakers make their first ever-trip to The Dunk, where I am certain the PC fans will give them a nice, friendly east-coast-Catholic welcome. While I’m trying to be funny, it raises the very real truth: The Dunk is an incredibly difficult place to play, and one of the greatest home court advantages in all of college basketball. Certainly the most under-the-radar home court advantage.
But home court can only carry you so far. One of the biggest keys here will be Bryce Hopkins’ health. It’s been a roller coaster of emotions for PC fans. He’s been cleared, but did not play in The Bahamas amid rumors of discord between the staff/training staff and Hopkins’ camp about his readiness. This morning it was reported he has a chance to play tonight. Whether this is a legitimate possibility or the staff leaking info to attempt to apply public pressure on Hopkins is anyone’s guess. Even if Hopkins comes back, what can fans realistically expect from a player who has not played in almost a year, is coming off an ACL tear, and seems, at best, to be hesitant about playing at this juncture.
This also starts a crucial stretch for PC. Coming off 3-straight losses in The Bahamas, PC would love to run off 3 straight quality wins to close out their OOC slate: v. BYU, @ Rhode Island, v. St. Bonaventure (N). 3 wins in this last OOC stretch their could salvage the season. In between those games is also a newly-tricky trip to the Second City to face the friskiest DePaul team in a generation. Certainly a game not to be overlooked.
On the court, BYU comes in battle-tested, losing to KP # 41 Ole Miss in overtime, before beating NC State 72-61, both games in the Rady Children’s Invitational in San Diego last weekend. This game will be won or lost on the glass. Both teams are top-25 in the country in offensive rebound rate, and top-10 in the country in defensive rebound rate. SOMETHING has to give. If Hopkins is back and contributing at even 70% of his old self, that could be the difference on the glass. In The Bahamas PC rebounded well, pulling down 30.7 RPG, 10 of them offensive versus their opponents 28 & 4.3. At the Rady Invitational, BYU pulled down 38, with 12 being offensive to their opponents 30.5 & 7.5. BYU plays significantly faster, so it’s not surprising a raw average would favor them, but the rebounding rates are very close. (38.4 BYU v. 37.8 PC in OR rate and 19.0 v. 21.7 DR rate).
And about that tempo…that will be another key. PC does not have the horses to get into a track meet with BYU. PC struggled with Indiana’s pace at Atlantis, and looked better in the defeats to Oklahoma and Davidson, both of whom play slower. PC is 331/362 in tempo, and while BYU isn’t anyone’s idea of fast, they play 4 possessions per game faster than PC, good for 119th in America. Whichever team imposes their tempo is going to have a big advantage.
Prediction: Logic is telling me that BYU should win this one, but I envision a tight game. And in a tight game, The Dunk Mystique could be the deciding factor. Add in the fact that Bryce Hopkins might return tonight—which would provide a huge boost on the court, but also for the fans in attendance—I have to lean PC in a close one, 67-63.
Results: Well I was dead wrong. It wasn’t a tight game at all. But it was a PC victory. Hopkins answered the bell in a big way, pouring in 16 points, 10 of which came at the stripe.
Wednesday, December 4
Baylor at UConn - Baylor has been a mixed-bag so far this year, getting absolutely smoked by Gonzaga and Tennessee, but racking up quality wins over Arkansas—although Cal’s team may be fraudulent, they’re certainly on fraud watch—and my own Johnnies. The metrics are not as high on Baylor as the general public and the AP voters, as Torvik has the Bears at just 39th when you remove the preseason projections from the equation. NET, which factors in results alongside efficiency, likes the Bears a little better, slotting them in at 23.
UConn is coming off a blowout win over University of Maryland-Eastern Shore…a competitive matchup no doubt, which came on the heels of a bad performance in Maui, with UConn losing to Memphis and Colorado in by 2 points and 1 point, respectively, before getting their doors blown off by Dayton 85-67. Throughout the trip the Huskies looked unable to defend at the level we’ve come to expect from Hurley teams, posting a 131.5 defensive efficiency rating in Maui. UConn’s defense has traditionally relied on elite individual defenders, backed-up by an elite defense center (Sanogo & Clingan). UConn simply does not have that this year. Mahaney is a liability defensively and Memphis picked on him repeatedly. Samson Johnson and Taris Reed simply cannot defend and rim-protect at the same level as Sanogo and Clingan. McNeely is a freshmen and plays defense like one. As great as he is offensively, Karaban is a mediocre defender.
Underscoring these defensive woes is foul trouble. In Maui UConn committed 24 personal fouls per game, conceding 32.7 FTAs per game for their opponents. The defense was also abysmal behind the arc, where UConn let its Maui opponents shoot 52.7% from deep on 18.3 3PAs per game. Do I believe Dan Hurley can figure something out and right the ship? Of course, it’d be silly to doubt him, but as I heard on a national college basketball podcast recently, while coaching is important, you also need to have “the Joes,” and at the moment too many UConn doesn’t seem to have enough Joes to play to its expected level.
Gampel Pavilion provides a pretty strong home court advantage. UConn has won 29 of its last 30 games at Gampel. That streak can be a little misleading since some bigger games tend to get moved to Hartford, and UConn plays most of its marquee OOC opponents at neutral sites or in MTEs. Nonetheless, I expect it to be a raucous crowd in attendance that will attempt to rattle the visiting Bears.
While Gampel makes UConn’s task easier, it is impossible to preview this game without noting that Alex Karaban will be missing his 2nd straight game with a concussion sustained in the last game in Maui. In his absence, freshman Liam McNeeley and sophomore Jaylin Stewart will be asked to pick up the slack on the wing, while Solo Ball and Hassan Diarra will face more pressure to run the offense to get quality looks in the absence of Karaban’s shooting. It’s a tall ask for a team that felt under-manned to begin the season.
Baylor feels perfectly positioned to exploit UConn’s issues, shooting 38.1% from deep, good for 48th in the country, and takes 28 3PA per game (56th in country). While Johnnies Legend Norchad Omier has shot very poorly from deep this season (18.2%), he’s posting his highest eFG (60.8%) since his sophomore year at Arkansas State (63.4%), buoyed by 85.2% shooting at the rim (under 4.5 feet) and 54.5% in the rest of the paint, where he attempts most of his shots—44.6% of his attempts. Combined at the rim and in-the-paint accounts for 81.1% of his shot attempts, and most of his 15.9 points per game. He’s also a walking double-double, averaging 10.4 boards this season. It will be imperative for UConn to keep him out of the lane. Without Karaban, this will be particularly tough. The matchups just don’t favor UConn, as it will be Samson or Reed on Baylor’s center, leaving McNeely or Stewart on Omier? Give me the wily vet in that matchup.
Prediction: Danny Hurley has had a week and a game to figure out his defense, and find a way to win without Karaban? If any one can do it, it’s Danny Hurley. Unfortunately, this Baylor team has too much talent in my opinion. They continue to get better as new pieces start to gel more efficiently. Give me Baylor by 5, 70-65
Result: Danny Hurley found a way to get it done without Karaban, winning 76-72. Baylor was without Edgecombe, and Roach was limited to 23 minutes after suffering a concussion. Celestine fouled out with 7:23 on the clock. But none of that detracts from a job well-done by UConn. They had a job to do without their star, who is worth far more to this team than Roach or Edgecombe or Celestine are to Baylor. Maybe more than the latter 2 combined. And early, it looked like maybe missing Karaban would be too much, as UConn struggled early and Baylor jumped out to a 19-8 lead. But UConn battled back, led by freshmen Liam McNeeley’s 17 points, 8 assists, 3 blocks, and Diarra’s 7 assists. Even Aidan Mahaney contributed in a big way, going 3-4 from deep for 9 points in just 18 minutes. All-in-all an impressive performance from the Huskies.
Marquette at Iowa St. - What a juicy matchup. The clear bannerman of the Big East through the first month—Marquette—travels to Ames to face Iowa State. Undefeated Marquette riding on a nation-high 8-game win-streak. These teams are similar in a lot of ways. Both teams like to play fast on offense, while stifling teams into long possessions on the defensive end. Marquette’s average offensive possession lasts 15 seconds (12), while Iowa St.’s lasts 15.2 (21), and on the flip side Marquette’s defensive possessions last 18.4 (330th) seconds on average and ISU’s 18.9 (355th). Both teams play in your face, aggressive styles of defense, and are elite at turning teams over, with Marquette sporting a 25.2% TO rate, good for 3rd nationally and ISU gets turnovers on 23.6% of their defensive possessions, good for 9th nationally. Marquette also ranks number 1 in Steal % per KenPom. Steals are critical to what Neither have elite front courts, but ISU has been the better rebounding team to date, with the caveat that they’ve played a softer schedule.
Both teams are mediocre shooting the 3-ball, with Marquette ranking 140th, at 34% and ISU rankings 158th at 33.6%. Marquette likes to play much more behind the ark though, taking 47.7% of its attempts from deep, versus just 25.3 for ISU. ISU makes up for its lack of 3’s by getting into the lane for easy buckets, rankings first in 2-pt FG% at 61.1. That inside attack is keyed by Keshon Gilbert, a player who fearlessly drives to the rim without concern for his own safety. I watched a game this year, either the Auburn or Dayton game in Maui, where Gilbert got whacked in the nose, appeared to be out cold for a second, gets up after a minute on the ground. Drills the 2 FTs, made a great play to get the defensive stop, and took the ball hard to the rim again the very next offensive possession. Marquette’s guards, undoubtedly the strength of this roster, will have their hands full keeping Gilbert out of the lane. Ben Gold will also have his hands full on the inside with Dishon Jackson. The key here will be defending without fouling, bring the help on the other side to try to force TOs—although Jackson is pretty strong with the ball in his hands—or force him to kick it out. The only 2 real threats out there are Milan Momcilovic (sounds like a Serbian war criminal) and Curtis Jones, shooting 47.1% and 40%, respectively. The rest of the team has shot 25% or worse from deep this year.
Ultimately, the way to beat Marquette is with elite interior play. Does Dishon Jackson rise to the occasion in his first year in Ames? To date he’s played good, not great. The bigs that gave Marquette trouble last year, when they had a much better center in Oso Ighodaro, were Edey, Kalkbrenner, & Clingan. This year they struggled to contain Derik Queen, but won anyway. They struggled to contain Georgia’s freshman sensation Asa Newell, but won anyway. For my money, Edey, Kalk & Clingan are all light years better than Jackson, while Jackson is—at best—as good as Queen and Newell, as both are still freshmen. The other important distinction…the 5 guys I mentioned are/were the primary scorers for their respective sides. Jackson is not. Asking him to step here as a scorer may be more than he can handle.
Prediction: This one is too tight to call. I like Marquette to keep it close and cover the spread, but it’s way too close to call who wins. The teams are basically mirror images of each other. Ames can be a tough place to play, and Shaka’s Marquette teams historically have been weaker on the road. But Marquette has already been tested on the road at Maryland, and the beauty of the continuity of Shaka’s approach is that these guys have seen and played in big road games for Marquette before. The coaching matchup is pretty even for me, I think these are 2 of the top-20/25 coaches in the country, so no edges to be found there. Ultimately, I just don’t think Jackson gives Iowa State what it needs to win today. Marquette’s guards can definitely contain Iowa State’s guards enough to win. Regardless, this game should be fast-paced, up-and-down, and action-packed. By far the most anticipated matchup on the slate that doesn’t involve St. John’s. Give me the Golden Eagles, 88-87
Result: a little bit too optimistic here. Iowa State ran the Golden Eagles back to Milwaukee, 81-70. Gilbert feasted, posting 24 points and 7 assists, and got to the line a game-high 8 times. Joshua Jefferson tortured Marquette inside, posting 15 points and 11 boards on 7-9 shooting from 2-point range. Dishon Jackson also played efficiently, but Marquette more effectively denied him the ball. Jackson had 11 points on 4-5 shooting, adding 7 boards and 2 blocks.
Kansas at Creighton - Spread seems artificially low here. Creighton has struggled to date, and even though they are at home, you have No. 1 in the country Kansas only laying 4.5 to the Blue Jays? Color me shocked. But wait! Creighton has one of the best defensive bigs in the country to attempt to neutralize Dickinson. The drop coverage can also help neutralize some of the guard play of Mayo & Harris. Interesting viewing note for my Johnnies friends, AJ Storr has been lightly used in Lawrence to date. But the last time he played in Omaha he dropped 23 points on 56.3% from the field and 60% from deep. Something about that drop coverage must suit his eye. The other problem for the Jays: Kansas is elite at nailing the mid-range 2, ranking in the 92nd percentile in mid-range 2 FG%, at 46.0%. The mid-range game is the surest bet against the Jays, as that’s the exploit left by the drop coverage.
Prediction: Kansas in a rout as things get worse in Omaha before they get better. AJ Storr has a monster game, and Kansas drills the mid-range to death and to victory. Kansas 75-61.
Result: Could not have been more wrong in this one. Creighton controlled this game beginning to end, but for a stretch where they couldn’t score wrapping around the half. That stretch saw Kansas pull to within 1, 42-41, before a Cockbrenner dunk, 2 Pop Isaacs 3-pointers, and an Ashworth FT promptly got the lead back to 10, 51-41. Kansas never got within 5 again, as Creighton kept them at arm’s length and pulled a way late thanks to their defense, closing out the Jayhawks 76-63. Ryan Cockbrenner was fantastic, playing 38 minutes and going for 17 and 10. Pop Isaacs was sublime, shooting 10-15, 6-9 from deep for 27 points, 7 boards and 4 assists. This is the version of Creighton most people expected.
DePaul at Texas Tech - It’s DePaul, what more do you need to know? (OK I just ran outta time today as I have had too much work to do).
Prediction: DePaul shoots the lights out in Lubbock and rides away to victory! 90-82
Result: TTU 76-62. Do I still believe in DePaul? Goddamn right I do. This just wasn’t there game. They didn’t shoot great (just 31.4% from deep, 42.1% from the field), and they lost the rebound and turnover battles 34-28 and 14-6, respectively. But the plucky Blue Demons showed plenty of heart. TTU jumped out to an early 14-0 lead, But the ‘mons battled back, tying the game on a Isaiah Rivera 3 shortly before the U8 timeout. A TTU buzzer beater at the half was all that separated DePaul from a lead in the locker room. Instead they trailed by 1. The 2nd half was all TTU, opening up a quick 9-pt lead, and never letting the ‘mons get closer than 6 points.
Is DePaul for real? As noted above, I believe they are. The metrics are still profiling like an bubble/NIT team. IF they wanna be on the right side of the bubble they best take care of business against their remaining 2 half-decent opponents: Wichita State and Northwestern. While neither team is great, they’re both respectable wins. The Northwestern game in particular, being on the road, is very important. The committee really values Q1 road wins, and as of now NWern qualifies. If NWern can win a couple games before that December 21st matchup, it’ll help solidfy them as a Q1 opponent on the road.
Thursday, December 5
Xavier at TCU - The only Battle game on the slate tonight, as 7-1 X heads to Fort Worth to face the Horned Frogs on the absolute worst basketball court in America. I’m glad I will be at a concert instead of getting vertigo watching this game on my television. Really though, I’m disappointed to be missing what should be a fun game between 2 teams that love to run. TCU scores 21.3% of its points on fast breaks, 97th percentile in America. Xavier scores 26.6% of its points on fast breaks, 100th percentile in America.
Both teams ignite those fast breaks with aggressive defense that turns the opposition offer, with TCU turning opponents over 15.6 times per game, good for 92nd percentile per CBB analytics. X also forces a fair amount of turnovers, 13.8 per game, good for 74th percentile. TCU averages 18 points off turnovers to Xavier’s 15.9. The difference here, TCU is abysmal at defending the fast break, giving up 15.3% of its opponents’ points on fast breaks, while Xavier’s defense concedes 13.1% of its opponents’ points on fast breaks. Advantage X.
That said, TCU’s offense tends to stagnate in the half-court due to its lack of playmakers at this level. That leaves the scoring pretty balanced, looking like:
Frankie Collins: 11.3
Trazerien White: 9.9
Vasean Allette: 9.7
Noah Reynolds: 9.7
Brendan Wenzel: 8.4
Udeh: 7.8
So pick your poison. They can beat you inside, with their guards or on the wings. Despite this balanced scoring attack, they’re a pretty poor shooting team, sporting just a 49.2% eFG (43rd percentile), and 32.1% from deep (41st percentile).
For X, the biggest key will be shooting from deep. They shoot a very good 38.7% from 3-pointland, god for 92nd percentile. That said, they do not shoot as many 3’s as you’d expect from such a good shooting team, just 47th percentile in 3PAs per game, 22.6 and 51st percentile in 3-point attempt rate. TCU allows a lot of 3 pointer attempts per game, 23.7 (40th percentile), but opponents shoot just 28.9% on those attempts (86th percentile).
The key for X will be finding a way to drain the opportunities they get from deep. Michigan, in beating TCU, shot 9-24 from deep (37.5%). TCU also really struggles to quality wings and larger guards, so guys like Freemantle, Swain, Hunter, and Conwell should have some good looks in this one.
Prediction: X is just the more-talented team, so after all that, no need to overthink it. But if you do overthink things, X is well-positioned to exploit TCU’s defense. Xavier 84-76
Result: Sometimes you should just stick with your gut instinct on a team. My gut instinct was always that this Xavier team was not very good, and that the transfers other than Conwell were simply not good enough. So far I’ve been proven right. Maddox has been a bust for the Musketeers, averaging just 4.7 points after posting 15.6 for Toledo a year ago. Marcus Foster has prove to be an asset defensively, but has not been productive offensively after averaging 17 points per game last season for Furman. John Hugley been a complete non-factor. Cam’Ron Fletcher can’t even get off the bench. Mea culpa, I was wrong about the existing pieces. I didn’t think Freemantle and Hunter would come back at the same productivity levels. Other than poor 3-point shooting, Freemantle looks like the best version of himself, and Hunter was never a huge producer offensively, and he’s mostly slotted back into his role as a defender with limited offensive capabilities. Meanwhile Dailyn Swain has taken a bit of a sophomore leap, posting 8.4 ppg on 64%eFG, while grabbing 5 boards and 2.6 assists in 26.7 mpg.
However, without the expected production from the incoming transfers, particularly Maddox and Foster, this team will continue to struggle. That was on full display last night, as Conwell, Freemantle, and Swain went for 17, 16 & 12 respectively, with no one else breaking double digits, although Maddox posted an admirable 9 points on 3-4 shooting from deep. Xavier lost 72-76.
Friday, December 6
Georgetown v. WVU - Do I HAVE to preview this one?! lol. Fine. Sadly, this is one of the best games on a dead night of college basketball. These are two teams in rebuilding mode. WVU after Huggy Bear’s misdeeds off the court and Georgetown after…well Patrick Ewings (entirely less serious) misdeeds on the court. Year 2 on Cooley is off to a mixed start. Efficiency metrics do not love the Hoyas: Georgetown is 96 in Torvik if you remove the preseason projections. They surprisingly sport the 49th best defense (which is adjusted for opponent quality), but only the 200th best offense.
On defense the Hoyas generate a lot of turnovers, with 23.7% TO rate to date, 8th in the country per Torvik. West Virginia has not done a great job of protecting the ball, coming it with a 17.3% turnover rating, 158th in the country. On the flip side, WVU is a decent shooting team, posting 35% from behind the arc, which should help them exploit Georgetown’s anemic 3-point defense, which allows opponents to shoot 34.7% from deep, 237th in the country per KenPom.
On the flip side, Georgetown is going to have to get to the rim and pound the ball inside to Sorber. WVU’s defense is pretty-well balanced, with opponents shooting just 29.8% from deep, and only 44.4% from 2-pointland. Look for WVU to be patient, and slowly breakdown the Georgetown defense for a good look from deep. Despite its excellent defensive steal % (15.2, 3rd in the country), the GTown defense allows a lot of assists, ranking 286th in assist percentage, at 57.7 (286th in the country).
Georgetown also has a big rebounding edge. Georgetown’s offense rebounds the ball at 35.8% rate, good for 45th in the country, versus WVU allowing opponents an offensive rebound rate for 32.5%, 273rd in the country. The same holds true on the other end, where WVU is 228th in the nation in offensive rebound percentage versus 152nd for Georgetown’s defensive rebound %. WVU does not have a single player over 6’8” that averages more than 15 minutes. The only true center on the roster, Eduardo Andre—at 6’11”—only gets 14 mpg, averaging just 3.5 & 3.8. He will have his hands full if he draws the assignment of guarding Sorber for big minutes.
Prediction: Georgetown fans already hate me, so I have no qualms admitting that I came into this preview fully expecting to this to point me towards a WVU blowout. But I have actually talked myself into the idea that Georgetown could win this game. It will be a battle of who can impose their will. Neither team has shown any prowess in guarding the other’s strength. I like Sorber to feast, and if Georgetown can generate enough extra possessions with offensive rebounding and TOs, they just might win this thing. I’m going to predict Georgetown to pull off the road upset, 78-77. From a betting perspective I LOVE the value on Georgetown +8.5, I’d hammer that. I also like the over 143.5, as you can tell by my score prediction. I accept no responsibility should these picks lose you money.
CHECK BACK HERE LATER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PREVIEWS!