Franketology: March 3, 2025
I riled up VCU Twitter this afternoon with this tweet:
I stand by it.
Coming into today, BracketMatrix.com has VCU as the top 11-seed, squarely in at-large territory. Naturally, I have some thoughts. First, this might just be a quirky anomaly. All but 1 bracket has VCU you in. This is not necessarily because VCU is an at-large lock, but It may be that many bracketologists have them as an 11-seed auto bid, just behind the Last 4 In, also on the 11-seed line. If that’s true, just a few bracketologists pushing placing VCU on the 10 line (indeed in some cases the 9(!) seed line, could pull that average from the first auto-bid 11 (behind the last 4 in) to the first 11 seed, at-large territory before the last 4 in. I think that’s definitely a factor.
But as you may notice, there’s still several Bracket Matrix members that have VCU squarely in the at-large field, with 31 of 63 brackets that had VCU in the field had them on the 9 or 10 line. Two brave souls of that 63 (soon to be 3 when the Matrix updates to include my bracket), Bracket WAG and 5 Star Bets. Neither are particularly high in the Matrix, but Bracket WAG has been doing this for a long time, so it is reassuring to see he’s with me on this.
Link to spreadsheet right here.
I had a lengthy explainer here re: why VCU is not an at large team, which I accidentally lost like an idiot. I’m not doing it again. Long story short: all the teams in the same range as them from a resume metrics perspective have far more quality wins. Yes, VCU has a nice Q1 win percentage, .500 (1-1). But it’s only 1-1. Just look at their brothers-in-mid-major-arms UCSD and Drake, who are 2-1 and 1-0 in Q1 respectively. UCSD even has a Q1A win and both UCSD and Drake have a win over the field each. The committee rewards teams that challenge themselves. VCU has not. Their conference has certainly let them down to some extent, especially Dayton, but the committee doesn’t grade on a curve.
Another major reason…the Q4 loss. VCU has a really bad loss to Seton Hall dragging its resume down. If they got an at-large bid, they’d almost certainly be the only team in the bracket with a Q4 loss. Additionally, the strength of schedule of 144 is higher than any bubble team by 60 spots (84 is the next highest, not counting auto-bids Drake and UCSD who are 203 & 208 respectively).
Now, there’s some talk about how a bunch of VCU’s wins are right on the borderline. And that’s all well and good, but none of them are going to bump up to Q1A, and Seton Hall going from just barely wrong side of 200, to just barely right side of 200—while highly unlikely with their remaining games against UConn and Creighton—would be a small distinction. But, I will always approach every resume with an open mind. If and when things all break VCU’s way, and the get a couple more Q1 wins, I’ll re-evaluate at that time. It’s possible that could push their resume metrics into a territory where they can’t be denied. Only time will tell.
And with that, here’s today’s Franketology:
Link to Franketology Spreadsheet
TRUE SEED LIST
Auburn
Houston
Duke
Tennessee
Alabama
Florida
Michigan St.
Wisconsin
Kentucky
St. John’s
Iowa St.
Texas Tech
Purdue
Arizona
Texas A&M
Missouri
Maryland
Clemson
Michigan
Marquette
Ole Miss
Louisville
St. Mary’s (CA)
Illinois
Oregon
Miss. St.
Kansas
Gonzaga
BYU
UCLA
Memphis
Creighton
Baylor
UConn
Vandy
New Mexico
West Virginia
LAST FOUR BYES
Utah St.
SDSU
Nebraska
Oklahoma
LAST FOUR IN
Arkansas
Ohio St.
Georgia
Indiana
OTHER AUTO-BIDS
Drake
UC San Diego
VCU
McNeese
Arkansas St.
Yale
Liberty
High Point
Grand Canyon
High Lipscomb
Akron
UNCW
Samford
No. Colorado
So. Dakota St.
Milwaukee
Bryant
Norfolk St.
CCSU
Quinnipiac
SEMO
Southern
Bucknell
FIRST FOUR OUT
Georgia
TCU
Boise St.
Wake Forest
NEXT FOUR OUT
UNC
Arizona St.
Xavier
Northwestern